Without the Māori seats, National would probably not have an overhang

The Māori seats didn’t only produce an overhang for the left, but their existence helped National have a seven seat overhang on the right.

This is because if Māori on the Māori roll were all enrolled in general seats, National would win far fewer. Based on the provisional results, this is what would happen in marginal National-held seats if there were no Māori seats.

• East Cape from +16% to -18%
• Hamilton East from +1% to -11%
• Hamilton West from +6% to -10%
• Kapiti from +5% to +1%
• Napier from +19% to +5%
• Nelson from +3% to 0%
• Northland from +21% to -5%
• Rangitikei from +15% to +5%
• Rotorua from +17% to -9%
• Takanini from +6% to -1%
• Wairarapa from +0% to -7%
• Whanganui from +19% to +5%
• Whangarei from +3% to -12%

So National would probably lose nine seats, and maybe a further four.

So abolishing the Māori seats would get rid of both overhang on the left and the right. I am not advocating this, just pointing out that this would be the outcome.