What will the Maori Mana pact mean?

Richard Harman writes at Politik:

The pact announced yesterday looks set to pave the way for Hone Harawira to return to Parliament.

At the same time the deal may threaten two of Labour’s brightest Maori stars — Kelvin Davis and Peeni Henare. …

Talking to POLITIK, Morgan said the aim of the two parties was to wrest all of the Maori seats off Labour.

That would involve each standing aside for the other in some seats.

He named Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Hauauru as two seats he believed the deal would bring to the Maori party while att he same time it is probable the Maori Party would not oppose Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau.

If that had been he case at the last election, and everybody who voted for the Maori Party instead votes for Harawira, he would have beaten Labour front bencher, Kelvin Davis, with an 1836 majority.

Similarly, if Man stood aside in Tamaki Makaurau where Peeni Henare is the MP and Te Tai Hauauru, then the Maori Party would have won both seats.

I’d be cautious of assuming that everyone who voted for the Mana Party candidate would have then voted for the Maori Party candidate and vice-versa. The Labour candidates would pick up some of those votes if one of the M parties was not standing.

I’d be surprised if Davis was at risk as he has had a high profile since returning to Parliament. But Labour could face issues in the other two seats.

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