Government proposes to shrink economy by up to 22%


Yesterday the Green Party leader James Shaw (Minister of ) launched a consultative document on what form the “net zero by 2050” target might actually take. 

Reddell looks at the numbers:

The analysis by NZIER suggests that GDP will continue to grow but will be in the range of 10 per cent to 22 per cent less in 2050, compared with taking no further action on climate change.

Yes the Government is proposing to have the economy grow at 1.5% a year rather than 2.2% a year. So to cut economic growth by one third.

Modelling shows the impact of domestic climate action would be felt more strongly by lower income households, because a higher proportion of their spending is on products and services that are likely to increase in cost as we reduce emissions across the economy.

Our modelling suggests the households that are in the lowest 20 per cent bracket for income may be more than twice as affected, on a relative basis, than those households with an average income.

So a huge impact on struggling families.

We will give up –  well, actually, take from New Zealanders –  up to a quarter of what would have been their 2050 incomes, and in doing so we will know those losses will be concentrated disproportionately on people at the bottom. 

A kind caring Government.

To repeat, I would be surprised if ever before in history a democratic government has consulted on proposals to reduce the material wellbeing of its own people by up to 25 per cent.      Wars, of course, come at a very considerable cost –  and sometimes are worth fighting –  but again, I doubt any democracy (or perhaps even any tyranny) ever entered a war thinking that as a result of doing so they would be so much poorer 30 years on.  It is simply a breathtaking proposition –  the more so in a country that at the moment struggles to achieve any material productivity growth at all.

So their long term plan is we are all 25% worse off. But in exchange the PM gets applause from students at speaking engagements in London.

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