The approval rating of the incumbent US president has been found to have a significant impact on how people vote in mid term elections. We hear a lot about how low Trump’s rating has been. But the story is not quite that simple. Trump has a low average rating, but his current rating is not far from other US Presidents at the same stage. Let’s look at the last foru presidents:
Trump is at the bottom. He has never been above 50%. He came in under 50% and has stayed there. His ratings have in fact not changed much.
The top line is George W Bush. He was slightly over 50% and then 9/11 had a rallying effect and he shot up to 90% and by the mid terms was still over 65%.
The next line is Obama. Started over 60% but kept declining and at mid terms was 44%, the same as Trump today.
Clinton started in the high 50s, went down and up and down again and at mid terms was around 46%.
So Trump is at where Obama and Clinton were.
Let’s look at the three before that:
The green line is Bush 41. He was around 55% at the mid terms. It was the next two years he went down as economy tanked.
Reagan came in on 51% and went up to 68%. He then declined until at 42% at the mid terms.
Carter came in at 66%, made 75% and then declined, He was at 49% at his mid terms.
So Trump’s rating is not historically low. His average rating is low because he never had a honeymoon.
Still highly likely to lose the House, in line with most mid term downswings. Five Thirty Eight have only a 15% chance they retain control. But for the Senate a 86% chance of keeping a majority.