Latest poll

One News has released the latest Colmar Brunton poll. The results are:

Government

  • Labour 43% (-2%)
  • Greens 5% (-2%)
  • NZ First 4% (-1%)

Total Government 52% (-5%)

Opposition

  • National 46% (+3%)
  • ACT 1% (+1%)

Total Opposition 47% (+4%)

But on this poll NZ First is out of Parliament and the Greens are hanging on just a fraction of a percent. The Greens usually get fewer votes than in the polls as their younger support base has lower . So in fact this poll indicates both support partners are in trouble. This explains why the Government has suddenly started talking about lowering the from 5% to 4%.

In terms of , assuming the Greens are at 5% and not just rounded up, the seats are:

  • National 58
  • Labour 54
  • Greens 7
  • ACT 1

So the Government has the smallest possible majority of 61 to 59.

Not a lot of change for Preferred PM with Ardern on 39% (-3%), Bridges on 7% (nc) and Collins 6% (+1%)

One News reported:

Prime Jacinda Ardern she was still happy the party were “finishing the year stronger than we started it”.

I do wish media would call her out when she gets things wrong.

The first poll of 2018 had Labour on 48%. They have dropped 5% since then.

I also should point out the dangers of commentators quoting polls that are not public. David Cormack earlier this month said:

And all this is hurting National if Labour's latest internal polling is to be believed. After a terrible week and less than stellar Colmar Brunton result, National has apparently dropped further. Bridges supposedly has a favourability well below negative 20, while the Government plus Greens has a lead of more than 20 points on National, who has dropped below 40.

That is rather at odds with this poll. Instead of dropping below 40%, National is the largest party on 46%.

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