Latest poll

One News has released the latest Colmar Brunton poll. The results are:

Government

  • Labour 43% (-2%)
  • Greens 5% (-2%)
  • NZ First 4% (-1%)

Total Government 52% (-5%)

Opposition

  • National 46% (+3%)
  • ACT 1% (+1%)

Total Opposition 47% (+4%)

But on this poll NZ First is out of Parliament and the Greens are hanging on just a fraction of a percent. The Greens usually get fewer votes than in the as their younger support base has lower turnout. So in fact this poll indicates both support partners are in trouble. This explains why the Government has suddenly started talking about lowering the threshold from 5% to 4%.

In terms of seats, assuming the Greens are at 5% and not just rounded up, the seats are:

  • National 58
  • Labour 54
  • Greens 7
  • ACT 1

So the Government has the smallest possible majority of 61 to 59.

Not a lot of change for Preferred PM with Ardern on 39% (-3%), Bridges on 7% (nc) and Collins 6% (+1%)

One News reported:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern she was still happy the party were “finishing the year stronger than we started it”.

I do wish media would call her out when she gets things wrong.

The first poll of 2018 had Labour on 48%. They have dropped 5% since then.

I also should point out the dangers of commentators quoting polls that are not public. David Cormack earlier this month said:

And all this is hurting National if Labour’s latest internal polling is to be believed. After a terrible week and less than stellar Colmar Brunton result, National has apparently dropped further. Bridges supposedly has a favourability well below negative 20, while the Government plus Greens has a lead of more than 20 points on National, who has dropped below 40.

That is rather at odds with this poll. Instead of dropping below 40%, National is the largest party on 46%.

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