Massive defeat for May’s Brexit deal

It was obvious it would not pass, but the margin is staggering. Only 202 MPs voted for it and 432 against. Over a third of Conservative MPs voted no.

The next step is a no confidence vote in Theresa May. It is expected she will survive it as there is a difference between rejecting her deal and voting for a snap election which could see Corbyn become PM.

Options going forward are:

• No Brexit. Very unlikely as Parliament has voted to Brexit and to vote to cancel Brexit in the face of a referendum result would be suicidal
• 2nd Brexit referendum – the hope of the Remain lobby. Almost impossible to occur before 29 March so only a possiblity if Brexit is delayed
• Brexit no deal – the default option and now more likely
• A Brexit delay – possible but opposed by May and many pro-Brexit MPs.
• New negotiations with the EU – May needs to work out what sort of deal could get a majority in Parliament and then see if EU can accept it as better than no deal. Likely to need a delay.

But really no-one knows how this will play out. Fascinating times.