The Treasury Economic Scenarios

Treasury has done some high level forecasts for what may happen to key indicators under different scenarios. They scenarios broadly are:

  1. Level 4 for 1 month and Level 3 for 1 month
  2. Level 4 for 3 months
  3. Level 4 for 6 months and Level 3 for 6 months
  4. Level 4 for 3 months and Level 3 for 3 months
  5. Same as Scenario 1 but lower global growth

They key indicators are:

ScenarioPeak UnemploymentCPI in 20215 yr GDP loss
113.5%0.25%$124b
217.5%0.25%$155b
317.5%-0.75%$270b
417.5%-0.75%$224b
513.5%-0.25%$214b

They also say that the Government spending an extra $20 billion in Scenario 1 means unemployment would only peak at 8.5% and drop back to 5.5% in 2021. That seems heroically optimistic.

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