Newshub have released their Reid Research poll. It is:
- Labour 56.5% (+14%)
- National 30.6% (-12.7%)
- Greens 5.5% (-0.1%)
- NZ First 2.7% (-0.9%)
- ACT 1.8% (nc)
It goes without saying that it is an awesomely good poll for Labour and pretty terrible for National.
It is not entirely surprising. I’m reminded of the Harold Macmillan quote “Events, dear boy, events” when asked what can blow a Government off course. But in this case it has blown the Opposition off course.
Obviously the Government (really the PM’s) handling of the Covid-19 pandemic has seen a huge boost for Labour. We have avoided the huge death rates from overseas and people credit the Government. Also the PM has had a near daily highly viewed press conference where the Opposition has been almost locked out from coverage.
So this poll would see a clear Labour majority Government with Greens, National and ACT in opposition and NZ First out of Parliament.
What will be interesting is to see how the polls move (if they do) as the focus moves more towards the economic response than the public health response.
But no one should fool themselves that this sort of gap would be easy to close by September.