Polls during a crisis

Was listening to a Five Thirty Eight podcast on why Trump's approval rating has risen, despite his incredibly muddled response to the Covid-19 crisis. Their conclusion was that when countries face a crisis, there is always a rush of support towards the of the day as patriotism trumps politics. You saw in the US after 9/11 and we are seeing it with the Covid-19 crisis. However Trump's bounce is far less than in other countries.

In Australia has gone from a -20% net approval rating in the February Newspoll to a +26% rating in the April Newspoll.

In the UK Boris Johnson has gone from a +6% rating in March Opinium to a +29% in April.

Even in the US, is seeing his approval rating increase, despite a pretty terrible actual response to the crisis. Gallup had him at -9% in January and at +4% in March. That's a reasonable increase but of course dwarfed by NY Governor Andrew Cuomo who has gone from a net 0% approval in December 2019 to a huge +48% in March 2020.

In fact many US Governors have seen a huge spike in approval, as you can see here.

Many heads of governments are also getting good specifically for their response to Covid-19. The percentage who approve of their response is 75%, Boris Johnson 70%, Justin Trudeau 64%.

So even the most incompetent head of government tends to get an increase in their during a crisis, while those who handle it competently get a massive increase.

There's quite a bit of carping in NZ about Scott Morrison, but his net approval has shot up 46%.

So there should be no doubt that while the crisis is ongoing, incumbents do well in the . This is natural and expected. The more important question is how long does it last for.

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