A new CNN/SSRS poll has Trump in real trouble. Even if you take into account the SSRS poll is normally 1.2% overly favourable to Democrats, it is still very significant.
- Trump approval 38% ( down 7% from May)
- Net approval is -19% (was -6% in May)
- Biden lead over Trump: 14% (was 5% in May)
Biden’s lead has shot up 9% in just one month and Trump’s net approval is down 13%. They are very significant.
The demographic breakdowns for the intended vote is also interesting:
- Men: Trump +2%
- Women: Biden +27%
- Whites: Biden +2%
- Under 45s Biden +23%
- Over 45s Biden +7%
- Non college grads Biden +3%
- College grads Biden +31%
- White non college grads Trump +16%
- Liberals Biden +88%
- Moderates Biden +28%
- Conservatives Trump +56%
Shouldn’t judge too much off one poll, but the key thing is the difference between May and June. It suggests the handling of the protests has backfired badly, especially the photo op with the bible in front of the church.
On the plus side for Trump, Biden has been near invisible, which is the best place for Biden. As Biden gets exposed to media more, his gaffes may surface more. Trump is a formidable campaigner and I expect the polls will tighten as the campaign gets underway. But Trump’s photo op was a disaster and he needs to find a way to move on from it.