Guest Post: Labour’s List Changes

A reader writes in:

Not sure if this is of any use to you, but I thought I’d do a comparison between the 2017 and 2020 lists, and see if anything stood out. I ended up categorising the ‘movers’ as below, and certainly there is one thing that has stood out to me – of those candidates who are now in winnable list positions who previously were not (either because they are newcomers or because they were previously too far down), the overwhelming majority are women. Now maybe they are all there on their own merits, but I doubt it. Especially when compared with the rest of candidates who in 2017 were too far down to get elected, and in 2020 still are too far down – of that pool of 9 candidates, 6 are male, only 3 are female.

It seems to me that to be picked to succeed in Labour, first and foremost you need to not have a penis. 

Also, how the hell did Phil Twyford go up inside cabinet!

Anyway, here are my categories showing who has moved up or down. I assumed that Labour get 45% of the seats in parliament (so a little under that in party vote come 19 Sept):

Promoted inside Cabinet

Phil Twyford (up 1)

Jenny Salesa (up 5)

Kris Faafoi (up 4)

Damian O’Connor (up 3)

Demoted inside Cabinet

David Clark (down 8)

Andrew Little (down 4)

Stuart Nash (down 1)

Promoted inside Caucus

Kieran McAnulty (up 10)

Poto Williams (up 3)

Angie Warren-Clark (up 2)

Willie Jackson (up 2)

Trevor Mallard (up 22)

Demoted inside Caucus

Priyanca Radhakrishnan (down 21)

Willow-Jean Prime (down 21)

Jan Tinetti (down 19)

Ginny Andersen (down 19)

Paul Eagle (down 15)

Raymond Huo (down 13)

Jo Luxton (down 12)

Liz Craig (down 12)

Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki (down 9)

Kiri Allen (down 6)
Jamie Strange (down 6)

Aupito-William Sio (down 5)

Deborah Russell (down 5)

Marja Lubeck (down 4)

Louisa Wall (down 3)

Duncan Webb (down 2)

Electorate Only to Winnable List (2/7 female)

Meka Whatiri (30)

Rino Tikikatene (31)

Nanaia Mahuta (10)
Peeni Henare (19)

Adrian Rurawhe (25)

Tamati Coffey (39)

Unwinnable List Position to Winnable (3/3 female)

Helen White (40 to 50), female lawyer from Auckland Central

Shanan Halbert (51 to 53), female Northcote candidate

Naisi Shen (50 to 40), female 

New, in winnable position (7/8 female)

Ayesha Verrall (18), female 

Vanushi Walters (23), female Lawyer

Camilla Belich (32), female employment lawyer, married to Andrew Kirton

Ibrahim Omer (44), male unionist, community advocate

Rachel Brooking (48), female lawyer

Angela Roberts (52), female former PPTA president

Neru Leavasa (54), female doctor

Tracey McLellan (55), female former vice-president

Unwinnable to Unwinnable (3/9 female)

Romy Udanga (47 to 73) male

Steph Lewis (42 to 57) female

Lemauga Lydia Sosene (44 to 56) female

Ala Al-Bustanji (62 to 74) male

Rachel Boyack (48 to 59) female

Nathaniel Blomfield (68 to 79) male

Kurt Taogaga (59 to 68) male

Dan Rosewarne (52 to 58) male

Gaurav Sharma (69 to 65) male

Winnable list to Electorate Only

Greg O’Connor (41 to nothing) male

Unwinnable List to Electorate Only

Anna Lorck (46 to nothing) female

Retiring

Clare Curran (was 23)

Ruth Dyson (was 24)

Thanks to the reader for a very good analysis. I’ve also done an analysis on Patreon detailing which candidates would get elected as which level of party vote.

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