NZ First average gain in last 8 weeks

The Herald reports:

But, speaking to the Nation this morning, Peters was adamant that would not happen.
He pointed out that when then Prime Minister Helen Clark called a snap election in 2002, his party was also polling at 2 or 3 per cent.

But on election day, NZ First won just shy of 11 per cent of the total vote.

Sometimes NZ First has gone up in the last eight weeks. Somtimes they have gone down. Let’s look at the eight MMP elections and what the Colmar Brunton poll said around eight weeks out, and what they got.

Poll 8 weeks outResultGain
199620.0%13.0%-7.0%
19994.1%4.3%0.2%
20023.2%10.4%7.2%
20057.0%5.7%-1.3%
20081.8%4.1%2.3%
20111.9%6.6%4.7%
20144.4%8.7%4.3%
201711.0%7.2%-3.8%
Average6.7%7.5%0.8%

So on average NZ First does 0.8% better in an election than they are in the ONCB poll eight weeks out. So if the average applies, their 2% may end up 2.8%.

The two elections after their spell in Government was 1999 and 2008. In 1999 they only did 0.2% better and in 2008 they did 2.3% better. But they need to do 3% better.

It is not impossible. In 2011 and 2014 they increased their vote by over 4% in the last eight weeks. But they were in opposition then, not Government.

Can never rule it out, but the odds are against them.

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