Trump better placed than in 2016?

I’ve charted above the data from 538 showing what their model in 2016 and 2020 projected or projects for Trump.

In 2016 his probability in the model moved a lot – from as low as 12% ti as high as 48%, and ended up on 29% (and of course he won).

At this stage in 2016 he was seen at only 13% to win and today in 2020 he is at 28%, so you could argue their model has his twice as well placed as in 2016.

However I think the better argument is Trump is more of a known quantity now, and we just are not going to see the same volatility as in 2016. I doubt their model will ever have him below 20% or over say 40%. But time will tell.

The post-convention polls will be interesting but Nate Silver said the model has been designed not to give too much credence to them as any bounce from a convention tends to disappear within a week or two.

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