Latest poll

The One News Colmar Brunton poll is:

• Labour 48% (-5%)
• National 31% (-1%)
• ACT 7% (+2%)
• Greens 6% (+1%)
• NZ First 2% (nc)
• New Conservatives 2%
• TOP 1%
• Advance NZ 1%

Obviously still a great result for Labour, despite dropping 5%. But if they drop another 5% then it gets interesting.

It looks like NZ First are out of it. The Greens are far from safe also. Last election ONCB had the Greens poll 8.0% and they got 6.3% – a 1.7% difference. If that occured again they’d get 4.3%. Not guaranteed you get the same error but over all eight MMP elections the Greens on average do 1.1% worse than the polls. So very tight for them.

If no Greens then it is Labour 48% and National/ACT on 38%. Still a large 10% margin but one that is closeable.

Again this is a good poll for Labour and the left – no doubt. But if the Greens under-perform as usual, then Labour needs to stay in the high 40s to be safe.