16 days to go
The bad news for Trump is he is at 12% in the 538 model. The good news is he was at 13% on the same date in 2016. However the election is five days earlier in 2020 so less time to change things. 538 project:
- 93% chance Biden gets over 50% of popular vote
- 37% chance Biden wins by a double digit figure
- 4% chance Trump wins popular vote
- 8% chance Trump loses popular vote but wins electoral college
On the average of the polls Biden has a 10.7% lead.
In terms of states Trump needs to win his odds are:
- Georgia 49%
- North Carolina 32%
- Arizona 31%
- Florida 28%
- Pennsylvania 13%
Also Trump needs to not lose:
- Ohio (51% Trump prob to win)
- Iowa 58%
- Texas 69%
The Democrats are now at 74% probability to win the Senate with a likely 52 seats.