The latest and almost final 538 forecast gives Trump a 10% chance of winning. Nate Silver has an excellent piece on how a 10% chance is not zero. It is around the chance of it raining on a particular day. Silver’s key points are:
- The Electoral College gives Trump a 3% to 4% advantage. Only if Biden has a greater than 5% lead in popular vote does his chances of winning the Electoral College exceed 90%
- Biden only leads by 4.7% in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state
- Biden only leads by 2.1% in Florida
- There may be polling errors, as occured in 2016, despite pollsters having tried to fix them
- There may be more spoiled ballots due to greater postal voting
- Trump appears to be picking up support from Hispanic voters, who may be under-represented in some polls
This is not to say that Trump is likely to win. It is to say Trump can win.