I’ve compiled this table showing the polling averages and projections for five aggregators. For the two most well known, I have also shown the margins in key states on congressional districts.
All have Biden ahead in the popular vote by between 4% and 8%. A 4% margin could see Trump win. An 8% margin almost certainly won’t.
Those who do a probability forecast have Trump at between 4% and 23% to win.
The electoral college forecasts range from 319 to 350 for Biden. You need 270.
In terms of the states Trump is ahead in Texas, Iowa and Ohio.
The aggregators disagree (different methodologies) on Georgia and North Carolina.
If Trump wins those, he also needs to Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania. In that last state he is only behind by 2.5% according to RCP or 4.9% according to 538.
The two states I’ll be most interested in are Florida and Pennsylvania.
If Trump loses Florida, he almost certainly loses the election. So if we get a decisive Florida result for Biden early on, then it may be a less suspenseful night.
If Biden loses Pennsylvania, he is in trouble. He still have alternative paths to victory, but not easy ones. I’d say Trump would be the favourite (but not certain) if he wins Pennsylvania. However unlike Florida, we are unlikely to get a clear result on election day due to their rules on counting early ballots.
Also of interest will be the Senate races. Control of the Senate will be highly consequential. Unlike the House, the Senate has to confirm all senior government and judicial nominees.