Dalziel retiring

The Herald reports:

Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel will not seek re-election, saying she would have needed her late husband by her side to stand again next year.

Dalziel has held the mayoralty for three terms, being first elected in 2013.

Dalziel is generally regarded as having done a good job in her first term. Resident’s satisfaction with Council went from 70% in 2013 to 74% in 2016. In her second term it dipped from 74% to 62% and in her third term has dropped to 49%, half way through.

This is also reflected in Curia polling on her net favourability. We started polling in 2012 and her net favourability has been:

2012: +32%
2013: +52%
2014: +41%
2016: +39%
2017: +41%
2018: +10%
2019: +15%
2020: -4%

So she was hugely popular before she go elected in 2012 and 2013. From 2014 to 2017 she maintained very high favourability of around +40%. Then it dropped massively in 2018, recovered slightly in 2019 but in 2020 she went negative for the first time.

My reading of that trend line is that if she was standing in 2022, she would lose if there was a popular and/or competent challenger.

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