Roy Morgan poll October 2021

The October 2021 Roy Morgan is out.

Party Vote

  • Labour 39.5% (-6.0% from September)
  • National 26.0% (+3.0%)
  • Greens 10.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 16.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Seats

  • Labour 51 (-14 from election)
  • National 33 (nc)
  • Greens 13 (+3)
  • ACT 20 (+10)
  • Maori 3 (+1)

Governments

  • Labour/Green 64/120
  • National/ACT 53/120

Direction

  • Right 48.0% (-9.0%)
  • Wrong 38.5% (+6.5%)

The change in country direction is the most significant part of the poll. If right direction stays under 50%, the government struggles.

A bad poll for Labour as they fall under the psychological 40% barrier. National will be happy to be up 3% but just being back to where you were at the election is not enough. National needs to get into the 30s. ACT will be very happy to stay at 16% and Greens also happy to be up a bit.

The gender gap has shrunk. National/ACT is 4% (+2%) ahead of Labour/Greens with men but gone from 34% behind with women to 19% behind. This is important as closing that gender gap is critical.

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