Which MPs would Labour lose on current polling?

A reader asked me which Labour MPs would be out on the latest ONK poll. This poll would see Labour going from 65 to 47 seats, so losing 18 seats. If you assume no change in electorate seats then the List MPs who would be out (in order) are:

  1. ROBERTS, Angela Susan
  2. WHITE, Helen
  3. BROOKING, Rachel Jane
  4. KANONGATA'A-SUISUIKI, Anahila Lose
  5. OMER IBRAHIM SALEH, Ibrahim
  6. CRAIG, Elizabeth Dorothy
  7. CHEN, Naisi
  8. COFFEY, Tamati Gerald
  9. CLARK, Angela Maree
  10. LUBECK, Maria Josina Elisabeth
  11. TINETTI, Janette Rose
  12. BELICH, Camilla Vera Feslier
  13. WALL, Louisa Hareruia
  14. JACKSON, William Wakatere
  15. VERRALL, Ayesha Jennifer
  16. FAAFOI, Kristopher John
  17. MALLARD, Trevor Colin
  18. PARKER, David William

However it is likely Labour will lose some electorate seats also. Their smallest margins (to ) are:

  1. Northland
  2. Whangarei
  3. Maungakiekie
  4. Upper Harbour
  5. Northcote
  6. Hamilton East
  7. Otaki
  8. Rangitata

All these seats have a majority of below 4,500. Nelson, Whanganui, Hamilton West and even West Coast-Tasman could come into play. But's let's assume those 12 seats go to National. Then Labour loses six List MPs and 12 , so those out would be:

  1. BENNETT, Glen Thomas
  2. NGOBI, Terisa Telesia
  3. HENDERSON, Lorenza Emily Preston
  4. PALLETT, Sarah Jean
  5. HALBERT, Shanan
  6. ROBERTS, Angela Susan
  7. WHITE, Helen
  8. BROOKING, Rachel Jane
  9. ANDERSEN, Virginia Ruby
  10. KANONGATA'A-SUISUIKI, Anahila Lose
  11. OMER IBRAHIM SALEH, Ibrahim
  12. CRAIG, Elizabeth Dorothy
  13. STRANGE, Jamie Ross
  14. LUXTON, Jo-Anne Marie
  15. CHEN, Naisi
  16. COFFEY, Tamati Gerald
  17. PRIME, Willow-Jean
  18. CLARK, Angela Maree

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