The battle for Wellington
Georgina Campbell writes:
National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis has been confirmed as the party’s candidate for Ōhāriu. She has previously run in Wellington Central, which is a safe Labour seat held by Finance Minister Grant Robertson. …
Hudson then had to campaign on two ticks blue at the last minute and lost to O’Connor by 1051 votes. The margin between the two was increased to almost 12,000 in the red wave that was the 2020 election.
I think Nicola is fantastic, but I would caution over expectations that she can easily win Ohariu. A 12,000 majority is massive, and I can’t recall a majority that large ever being flipped in one election.
Some people think Ohariu is a blue seat because Peter Dunne held it for so long, but the reality is National last held it in 1981, around the time Nicola was born. It is slightly less red than some of its neighbours, but here are some facts about it:
- Had slightly lower party vote for National than Te Atatu and Mt Roskill
- Candidate vote in 2020 was below Palmerston North
- It is the 19th safest seat for Labour with a 11,961 majority – more than Te Atatu
- It is Labour’s 30th best seat in terms of party vote and 24th highest for candidate vote
- It is also a strong Greens seat – 7th highest at 14%
- In 2020 the left parties got 35% more vote than the right parties – better than Wigram, Taieri
Willis is already out and about in the electorate attending the Rotary Khandallah Fair over the weekend and holding a public meeting in Johnsonville with National Party leader Christopher Luxon last Thursday.
A win is no slam dunk for Willis, but it’s not impossible either.
It as far from a slam dunk as you can get. It is not impossible, but it would be almost unprecedented. If anyone can do it, Nicola can – but no one should think it is even close to likely.