Lower income Americans move towards Republicans

Nate Silver has data on how Americans have voted by their income levels over time. He says the divide is now on culture, not income.

The proportion of the lowest income group that votes Republican has been:

  • 2008: 26%
  • 2012: 36%
  • 2016: 43%
  • 2020: 43%
  • 2024: 52% (polls)

We see similar patterns here, but less pronounced with more blue collar workers voting National than Labour.

The 52% in just a polling average at the moment, so it will be interesting to see the actual results in November.