Tories facing devastation

Conservatives fall into fourth place with their lowest ever YouGov vote share, while Reform UK post their joint-highest lead since the election

Ref: 29% (+1 from 11-12 May)
Lab: 22% (-1)
Lib Dem: 17 (+1)
Con: 16% (-2)
Green: 10% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1) pic.twitter.com/OVGSgAndwo

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 20, 2025

This poll would see Prime Minister Farage with a majority government. The seat projection on it is:

• Reform 346 (+341)
• Labour 145 (-267)
• Lib Dems 73 (+1)
• SNP 39 (+30)
• Conservatives 17 (-104)

The cross-tabs show us where Reform is doing best:

1. Midlands 33%
2. North England 33%
3. South England 30%
4. Wales 28%
5. London 20%
6. Scotland 18%

So their strongest support is the Midlands and North of England.

And demographically:

1. C2DE: 39%
2. 50 – 64: 36%
3. 65+: 36%
4. Men 33%
5. Women 25%
6. 25 – 49: 24%
7. ABC1: 22%
8. 18 – 24: 10%

Their strongest support is from lower socio-economic voters.