Why did Tory lose?

It has been interesting to read the various reasons put forward as to why Tory Whanau failed to get elected to the Maori Ward.

I can’t recall the equivalent of a incumbent Mayor who has been elected with a huge majority, standing for a ward seat and failing to win that seat.

Some say Whanau has been the victim of racism, but as this was an election in a Maori ward, where the only voters are Maori, and all the candidates are Maori, this can’t be the case.

Some say it could be sexism. I guess you can argue that Maori in Wellington are sexist, but personally I see no proof of that. And after all Whanau got elected by a massive majority to the Mayoralty in 2022, by all Wellingtonians.

In fact four of the last seven Mayors have been women, and have resgned for 21 of the last 33 years. So I don;’t think Wellington is a sexist city, let alone Maori Wellingtonians.

The Spinoff says it is because the local Iwi endorsed Matthew Reweti. Now Reweti stood in 2022 and lost to a low profile Green Party candidate, so for him to now win against a high profile Green Party Mayor is a huge turnabout. I guess it could be the Iwi endorsement but he doesn’t mention it on his candidate statement. AFAIK the Iwi just out out a statement once, and didn’t campaign for him in any way. There was one local story about it in The Post.

We can’t know for sure, how influential this was, but if you are to claim it is the reason Whanau lost, then what is the proof behind that assertion?

Also of relevance is of the 20,000 Maori in Wellington City, only 1,000 are affiliated to Te Āti Awa. They are only 5% of Maori, and she lost by a 17% margin. There are 3000 Ngati Porou, 2,600 Ngapuhi and 2,400 Ngai Tahu.

There is of course another possible explanation. Which is simply that Maori in Wellington didn’t think Whanau had performed well as Mayor, and didn’t want her on Council.

A poll Curia did in January 2025 found that of residents in the Maori ward only 32% thought Whanau had done a good job as Mayor. Now to be fair that is higher than any other ward (11% in Eastern) but still not great.

It also found only 16% of Labour voters and 34% of Green voters thought she was doing a good job.

So I wonder if it is just possible that her performance in office is why she failed to get elected to the Maori ward, rather than racism, sexism or Iwi endorsement?