About
Contact
Advertise

Facebook
Twitter

February 27, 2026 11:00am by David Farrar

US murder rate lowest since 1900

From Axios:

The number of murders fell 21% last year with a 40% fall in Washington DC.

Share this:

Facebook
X
LinkedIn
Reddit
WhatsApp
More

Pinterest
Print
Tumblr

Like this:

Like Loading…

Email
Facebook
Twitter
Comment32

Uncategorized

Related Stories

Murders dropped to a record low in 2017
The crime stats
Great job news

Comments (32)

Login to comment or vote

David Garrett

This was posted the other day I think? Or did someone just link to it?

First off, the actual claim is that the murder rate was at 1900 levels in 35 major cities not the entire US. And that is is believable – just. But it is important to realise that the US is a huge country with many sociological differences. In other words, rural Texas or Louisiana are very different environments from – say – small town New England.

The second thing to note is that over all the US the homicide rate per 100,000 per year – which is how violent crime is measured – is four. That is about twice what it is in NZ.

Lastly, can anyone tell me why the graph above shows up on my phone but not my PC? The same thing happened the other day with the graph of NZ violent crime.
6 4
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 11:13am
- David Garrett
  
  Just apropos of my comment regarding regional variations, 45 years ago I lived in an oilfield town in Louisiana called Morgan City, right on the Gulf coast; a town of perhaps 20,000 residents.
  
  The homicide rate back then was roughly two a month – and YES I am quite serious. Louisiana was, and remains, an “open carry” state. The theory is the bad guys can see that the good guys are armed, and thus will avoid trouble. Great theory – it doesn’t work. Or at least it didn’t back then.
  
  Having said that, Dr Google tells me that these days open carry – and I presume concealed carry – is not permitted in bars. Back in 1978 the advice from friends was that “good bars” – which is a relative term – required people to hand in their guns to a check out on entry. I was told “if they are still wearing their guns, go to another bar”.
  
  5 4
  Log in to Reply
  Report
  February 27, 2026 11:30am
  - David Garrett
    
    Lots of fans of “open carry” here…Those downticking me will be some of them. I am prepared to bet that those who think the theory works have not lived in an open carry state, as I did almost 50 years ago.
    
    I would be interested in reading the experience of someone else who has been there rather than just read about it.
    
    3 2
    Log in to Reply
    Report
    February 27, 2026 1:26pm
    - NZer In Exile
      
      If there was open carry in Aus there would be a bloodbath. Too many chest beating wannabe gangsters and other assorted violent dickheads.
      
      3 0
      Log in to Reply
      Report
      February 27, 2026 5:09pm
    - Local Miller
      
      In 2025 there were a total of 1 murder in Morgan City. While this makes a rate of 9.3/100000, the rate of Louisiana is 10.4/100000 compared to 5.0 for the whole USA.
      Small towns tend to have skewed stats when shown per 100000 because a single murder in a 20000 head town becomes 5/100000.
      I don’t think you can use “it was bad 50 years ago when I was there” as a valid comparison.
      
      2 1
      Log in to Reply
      Report
      February 27, 2026 5:29pm
- RoboRob
  
  Sure NZ might be better but this is a historic low for those 35 major cities, which is avery large chunk of the population. This is very good news for the average american.
  
  Some of the improvement is likely around a drop from the highs caused by COVID (like NZs drop) but the fact it is the lowest in decades implies something else is going on here.
  
  It could be that locking the border and removing illegals with violent records is helping. Although if you believe Reps there are still more illegals then pre Biden.
  
  Some of it could be to do with the crackdown on Fentanol and other drugs.
  
  Perhaps it is the mobilisation of national guards. One would suspect that Washingtons huge drop 40% is largely related to that. Certainly even red states are starting to enforce laws again, after a decade of light on crime policy. Remember California recently had a policy where you could steal up to $1000 without penalty.
  
  Seems clear that Trumps opolicy changes have had some positive impact. Probably not the sole driver but perhaps a decent part of the improvement.
  
  15 1
  Log in to Reply
  Report
  February 27, 2026 11:32am
  - David Garrett
    
    Robo: I didn’t mean to suggest that this wasn’t very good news for the residents of those US cities – of course it is. It’s important to remember that this isn’t a new phenomenon though – back in the early 90’s when “broken windows” was introduced in NYC, the murder rate plummeted, and NYC became one of the safest cities in the US, and not one of the most dangerous.
    
    Sadly that trend reversed…funnily enough when the combination of broken windows and sentence enhancement was no longer in vogue. I assume NYC is one of the 35 referred to in the posted graph.
    
    6 4
    Log in to Reply
    Report
    February 27, 2026 11:40am
    - imalwaysright
      
      It shows how much influence effective policy can have when it is enforced.
      Meanwhile, back in NZ where there’s no crime that the judge won’t excuse…
      
      6 0
      Log in to Reply
      Report
      February 27, 2026 11:59am
      - KKNZ2025
        
        There’s evidence to suggest the drop in NY cities violence since “broken windows” was due in large part to Roe vs Wade making abortion more accessible for impoverished & marginal people, stopping the intergenerational cycle of poverty.
        
        0 0
        Report
        February 27, 2026 5:40pm
  - sungsamning
    
    But, but, but Orange man bad. // ICE are going after gang members, the border is closed, thus there are fewer illegals committing crimes.
    
    0 0
    Log in to Reply
    Report
    February 28, 2026 9:06am
- Ghost
  
  Texas include the immigration status of arrested and convicted people, so this is an interesting study
  
  https://www.migrationpolicy.org/content/immigrants-and-crime
  
  7 0
  Log in to Reply
  Report
  February 27, 2026 11:38am
  - David Garrett
    
    Ghost: Very interesting…the complete opposite of what most of us would expect vis a vis immigrant populations.
    
    4 3
    Log in to Reply
    Report
    February 27, 2026 11:44am
    - NeverMindTheBollocks
      
      From the website:
      About the Migration Policy Institute
      
      Mission: The Migration Policy Institute is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that seeks to improve immigration and integration policies through authoritative research and analysis, opportunities for learning and dialogue, and the development of new ideas to address complex policy questions.
      
      The Institute is guided by the belief that countries need to have sensible, well thought-out immigration and integration policies in order to ensure the best outcomes for both immigrants and receiving communities, as well as sending countries.
      
      1 0
      Log in to Reply
      Report
      February 27, 2026 7:07pm
  - All_on_Red
    
    This has been understood for many years. Most illegals are peaceful- as are most Americans.
    The reality is most of the crime, including murders, is done by recidivist criminals, which comprise a minor % of the pop.
    The problem is that amongst all the illegal immigrants came a lot more criminals. Mainly to the cities.
    So remove 2-3000 criminals, who happen to be illegal, from the Cities and that would probably reduce crime.
    Who knew?
    
    9 3
    Log in to Reply
    Report
    February 27, 2026 12:27pm
    - imalwaysright
      
      “The reality is most of the crime, including murders, is done by recidivist criminals, which comprise a minor % of the pop.”
      
      Its the same in NZ but we still see judges giving scumbags with hundreds of convictions ‘second chances’ !
      
      If they put the offenders in jail we would see a huge drop in crime.
      
      6 0
      Log in to Reply
      Report
      February 27, 2026 12:33pm
    - NothingLeft
      
      US murders are mostly done by young African American men at something like 50x the average rate of all Americans. Preventions targeting that group will have consequently hugely outsized impacts.
      
      0 0
      Log in to Reply
      Report
      February 28, 2026 11:05am
  - RoboRob
    
    As All on red says, its NOT that immigrants are criminals. It’s that mixed in the illegal immigrants are criminals who otherwise would not be commiting crime in the US. If 1 one in 100,000 illegals is a murder and comes in and kills a US citizen. That is 1 citizen that died that shouldn’t have died if border rules were enforced.
    
    7 1
    Log in to Reply
    Report
    February 27, 2026 1:27pm
- NZer In Exile
  
  ” can anyone tell me why the graph above shows up on my phone but not my PC”
  
  Tried a different browser on your PC? It may be a browser setting or deficiency.
  Using a VPN? If so something in the VPN settings could be blocking it.
  
  The image is a .webp file format. Maybe your browser can’t display it (unlikely). Updated your PC and browser software?
  
  Sometimes firewalls will block things also.
  
  0 0
  Log in to Reply
  Report
  February 27, 2026 6:09pm
leoj

It couldn’t have anything to do with arresting then deporting illegal immigrant repeat criminals could it?
9 1
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 11:26am
artemisia

In some locations noticeably smaller numbers of workers are not turning up, shoppers are not shopping, friends and family not visiting, crims are not criminalling. Maybe that has a bit to do with lower shop revenue, fewer widgets heading out the door and crime rates dropping.
4 3
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 11:31am
- RoboRob
  
  We are talking Murders here! Its not likely related to online shopping and increased poverty usually leads to more murders rather then less.
  
  5 1
  Log in to Reply
  Report
  February 27, 2026 11:35am
  - artemisia
    
    Folk not out and about, and especially not drawing attention to themselves doing what they shouldn’t, in case they are tapped on the shoulder, might decide the sofa is a good idea for the moment.
    
    2 2
    Log in to Reply
    Report
    February 27, 2026 12:22pm
    - imalwaysright
      
      We/I need some clarification please Artemisia.
      
      0 0
      Log in to Reply
      Report
      February 27, 2026 12:42pm
      - artemisia
        
        Workplaces and shops in some locations reporting people staying away. Like staying home hiding from ICE.
        
        0 1
        Report
        February 27, 2026 3:19pm
anonymouse

There are also big picture factors at play in the overall downward trend from the 70s… with the biggest being demographics.
Murders are on average committed by young(er) people.
The average age in America has risen from 28 in 1970 to around 38 today,
Fewer young people generally equates to fewer murders…
5 0
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 11:47am
Handyman

There is a theory that the potential murderes of today were not born due to availability of abortions for the prospective mothers in the 70’s and 80’s.
3 0
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 12:38pm
Jack5

What if NZ could contract ICE to sort out our gang and drugs problem?
4 2
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 12:43pm
Colville

That 25 or so years 1970 on where coke and pot were going crazy in USA…massive money made and 1000’s of people slaughtered because of it.
My understanding is that the Jalisco cartel basically killed everyone that was in competition now so its settled down.
2 1
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 1:23pm
cmm

Murder rate is a very challenging thing to get apples to apples comparisons on, especially if we go back to pre-1950s.

Until the 1950s, when antibiotics became available, a blade or a bullet in the belly was almost certain death.

Survivability has improved by at least a factor of ten.
6 0
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 1:59pm
- David Garrett
  
  cmm: That’s correct. A former prison psychiatrist in the UK has estimated that if it wasn’t for advances in medical treatment, the homicide rate would be 30% higher over there. Exactly the same factors apply in NZ – victims get to hospital much quicker, especially from remote areas; drugs are much better, and ICU care didn’t really exist at all until the late 60’s early 70’s. And such care now is beyond any imagining compared with 50 years ago.
  
  1 1
  Log in to Reply
  Report
  February 27, 2026 2:51pm
Ra Henare

I am reminded of the phrase
Statistic statistics and damn lies.

Yes the lower muder rate in the US is good news!!!!!!
Of course I needed to undertsand this better so tracked down the “source””

https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/

It is clear that murder rates wax and wane over the decades. So the 2025 figure MIGHT be the low in the dip before a rise.

The measurement is per 100,000 residents.
Since a high murder rate in 2021 (Covid?) to 2025 the US population has increased by some estimated 10 million (Pew research) so diluting the rate per 100,000.

Not withstanding that its good news for US Residents.
It somewhat negates the anti Gun lobby theme of guns kill people.

A side note. Looking at total murders in USA (not just selected cities)
2025 is an estimate 14,000 murders
2021 Covid restrictions/ fear 22,300 murders
2008 (Post economic downturn.) 14,800-15,000

So no overall trend but Social/Political events seem to affect the murder rate.

Trump took office 2017
Murders in 2016. 17,250
Trump Left office 2021
Murders in 2020, 21,570.

So the lower rate over the last year can not be attributed to some sort of Trump Effect.

Statistics can be so interesting.
1 1
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 3:12pm
cmm

During WW2, somewhere between 20 and 30% of soldiers wounded by rifle fire died. Now the rate is well under 10%. And WW2 was pretty good compared to previous conflicts.

Those survival changes convert directly into a civilian context too. I would actually be quite surprised if the improvement is only 30%. I would think it would be higher than that.

Perhaps the 30% is for direct trauma (eg. bleeding out after being shot), but previous to WW2, most deaths were due to infection causing a death some days after being shot, stabbed or otherwise injured. These days death due to infection after injury are very close to zero.
3 0
Log in to Reply
Report
February 27, 2026 3:21pm

Add a Comment Cancel reply

Login to comment or vote

« General Debate 27 February 2026

Cunning teens »

Donations

You can now donate to Kiwiblog

Exclusive content from DPF on Patreon

Become a Patron!

Never miss a post

Email Address

Join 13K other subscribers

Highlights

Target achieved II
Good progress on attendance
Health Target 5 – elective treatments
Health Target 4 – Specialist appointments

Top Stories

General Debate 24 June 2026
Meet the Greens - Animal Welfare Policy
Predictable gaming
The tobacco black market in NZ in 2025
Be careful what you ask for with IMSB
General Debate 23 June 2026
Regulators are not soverign entities
The Greens $800 million blunder
Not sure about this one
The price of gold

Recent Posts

Maybe the GREATEST author few know of in 2026. 24 June 2026
The tobacco black market in NZ in 2025 24 June 2026
Predictable gaming 24 June 2026
General Debate 24 June 2026 24 June 2026
Meet the Greens – Animal Welfare Policy 24 June 2026
Be careful what you ask for with IMSB 23 June 2026
Regulators are not soverign entities 23 June 2026
General Debate 23 June 2026 23 June 2026
The Greens $800 million blunder 23 June 2026
Not sure about this one 22 June 2026
Don’t defend the indefensible 22 June 2026
General Debate 22 June 2026 22 June 2026

Recent Comments

General Debate 24 June 2026
Ghost
General Debate 24 June 2026
Hugh Jarse
General Debate 24 June 2026
Charlotte Wells
General Debate 24 June 2026
Steve Todd
Predictable gaming
mister nui
General Debate 24 June 2026
Ghost
Predictable gaming
mister nui
Predictable gaming
Tom Hunter
General Debate 24 June 2026
Steve Todd
Predictable gaming
C-Town
General Debate 24 June 2026
keepcalmcarryon
General Debate 24 June 2026
Ghost
General Debate 24 June 2026
keepcalmcarryon
General Debate 24 June 2026
Ghost
General Debate 24 June 2026
Maggy Wassilieff

Links

National gets Winstoned
No Right Turn
Alan Greenspan, 1926-2026: 'The Undertaker' passes away
Not PC
Cost of Renewables Holding Back Net Zero!
Utopia
Is Your Toothbrush Causing Gum Recession? How RANVOO AirJet Rewrites Oral Care with Science
The Daily Blog
Daily review 24/06/2026
The Standard
Word of the day
Hompaddock
Free Speech is in Trouble in Europe
No Minister
The mistakes that sealed Keir Starmer’s fate
Point of Order
NRL Predictions for Round 17
Stats Chat
Media Link: “A View from Afar” on Systemic Change.
Kiwipolitico
Alex Berenson on Fatherhood Manifesto, Marijuana & Biden’s COVID
Bob McCoskrie's McBlog
People Power
NZCPR
Levies as end-runs around the Generic Tax Policy Process
Offsetting Behaviour
A central banker’s fiction
Croaking Cassandra
THE WORKING FROM HOME RACKET BY PUBLIC SERVANTS
No Punches Pulled (Bob Jones)
The Accidental Engagement
Imperator Fish
Legal Beagle: Election '23: The Special Votes
Public Address
Get Vaccinated Tomorrow Or Shut Your Pie Hole
Cactus Kate
Making this movie might have been a mistake
Liam Hehir
Why I am retiring from political blogging
Kiwi FireWalker

[email protected]

PO Box 12270, Thorndon, Wellington 6144

Facebook
Twitter
FourSquare
Instagram
LinkedIn
Google+

© 2003-2026 David Farrar

Archives
Disclosure Statement
Editorial Policy
Privacy Policy
Complaints Policy
Comments Policy

Design by cre8d

%d