Blind to evidence

Radio NZ reports:

New Zealand Customs has warned tobacco smuggling is becoming more organised, large-scale and sophisticated, with the government pledging to stop the country following Australia into tobacco gangland warfare.

But a public health professor says while criminal involvement is a concern, there is no evidence of a dramatic increase in the size of the tobacco black market.

No evidence????

By chance Eric Crampton has just pointed out:

So far this year, the government’s tobacco excise revenue is $164 million below forecast. If that pace continues, the annual shortfall will reach about $225m.

That is 16% below forecast.

Now either smoking rates have dropped 16% in just a few months, or smokers are getting their tobacco from sources that don’t pay excise tax.