The UK elections – how bad will Labour do

On 7 May, there will be elections in Scotland, Wales and much of England. Up will be:

• 5,066 councillors on 136 English councils
• Six directly elected Mayors

The latest poll projections have Labour losing around 1,700 of their 2,200 councillors with the gains being Reform +1,450, Greens +900, Lib Dems +330. Losing 80% of your seats is terrible.

In the Welsh Senedd, Labour have 30 seats of the 60 seats. Current polls have them dropping to 12 behind Reform on 37 and Plaid Cymru on 36 (increase in seats to 96).

In the Scottish Parliament they are running in third place behind the SNP and Reform.

This may lead to an unusual situation where the Parliaments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will all be led by parties that wish to secede from the United Kingdom.