Labour’s errors in transport costing

Radio NZ reports:

The opposition party last week estimated a net cost of $65 million a year for its promise to cap fares at $20 a week in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch and $10 everywhere else.

But economists Sam Warburton and Brad Olsen say a more realistic figure would be somewhere between $91m and $112m.

I would trust the analysis of either, let alone, both those people. So they are saying it will cost between 40% and 72% more than what Labour says.

Warburton has identified two errors Labour seems rot have made:

• The 6.4% increase in usage from an AT paper was for five months, not 12 months. So the actual annual increase would be around 13,5%
• Not understanding the difference between a 6% increase in patronage and a six percentage point increase in patronage