General Debate 20 August 2026

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Yvette

The mourning after over-hang
Te Pāti Māori confirmed the strategy at its campaign launch on Sunday, but Jackson had warned it would risk the legitimacy of the Māori seats in Parliament, saying that “when you start working the system like that” it could lead to backlash and the seats’ possible abolition.

As this could risk the Maori Seats, it becomes a ‘con’
What then are the ‘pros’ for keeping these now out-dated seats?
Oh …

_______________

Where Rawiri Waititi gets his 13 Maori Members from –
All 7 Maori Special Electorates [really?] and then Party Votes going elsewhere would help get in Green and Labour List Maori –

The Labour Party announced its candidate list in June 2026, promoting several senior Māori MPs and introducing new candidates:
⚬ #4 Willie Jackson (Labour Māori Development spokesperson)
⚬ #7 Willow-Jean Prime (Te Tai Tokerau candidate) – the limit of Waititi’s example

The Māori candidates ranked within the Green Party’s top 20 for the 2026 General Election list are:
⚬ #1 Marama Davidson
⚬ #3 Teanau Tuiono
⚬ #4 Tamatha Paul
⚬ #7 Hūhana Lyndon – the other limit of Waititi’s example

Well, if Waititi believes that, he can be sold a volcanic-fault seawater-filled Waitematā Harbour-crossing tunnel

But it would be nice to let Willie know he may have been voted in by Te Pati Maori supporters.

Ardern stated an adviser from the public health community calculated that early pandemic measures prevented around 5,000 deaths.
Then she remarked that the protected individuals do not know who they are, but knowing how many were saved helped her cope with the stress of stringent restrictions. [1]

Note the switch from calculation to actual numbers saved.
Applying this logic to Jackson, he won’t know who actually voted him in, willie?

________________
[1] https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-response-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-interview-on-what-government-got-right-and-wrong/PKKLCAAF6DCTUCH3AIRIP4W6TU/ [subscription-walled]
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August 20, 2026 8:01am
- rouppe
  
  5000 lives saved? That’s a made up number but let’s use it.
  
  $60,000,000,000 spend on “COVID measures”. That’s $12,000,000 per life putatively saved.
  
  Could it have been done another way?
  
  How about $1,000,000,000 on focused support for aged residence and hospitals. $1,000,000,000 on some hotels to be isolation facilities for those that have caught COVID.
  
  Let most people get on with it, allowing wfh where possible. That’s $58,000,000,000 available to flex the operations that need it. More isolation facilities, or use more hotels for less urgent outpatient care…
  
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  August 20, 2026 8:37am
Cassandra

The report into the Mount landslide reveals that warnings were given 27 years go. A landslide from the mountain hit a campground at its base, killing 6 people.

The Mount is owned by a Maori tribe. The campground is leased by Tauranga City Council.

There’s been no mention in any of the news reports about the involvement or any actions of the owners of the land.

A casual reader would think that the Mount was the Council’s.
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August 20, 2026 8:01am
- pdm
  
  I too noticed that there was no mention of Maori responsibility Cass.
  
  Wasn’t it the Iwi that insisted on removal of various trees that was the main reason for that part of the hill becoming unstable?
  
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  August 20, 2026 8:09am
  - Cassandra
    
    That was posited. It may have been a factor but the main cause was geological. There had been 40 slips over the years.
    
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    August 20, 2026 8:25am
  - mike
    
    No. The slip risk there was evident for 30 years. The report provides no fodder for the racists.
    
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    August 20, 2026 8:53am
- mike
  
  The One News report covered this aspect. I don’t know why less-than-aware Kiwibloggers keep claiming the ‘MSM’ doesn’t cover stuff which has, in fact, been covered.
  
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  August 20, 2026 8:51am
Cassandra

NZ Rail assembles wagons at its Hillside Dunedin workshop. It’s done 1,000 of a 1,300 order. The workshop was resurrected by Labour a few years ago. It was to be closed because it was hopelessly uneconomic.

It’d cost $23,000 less per wagon to import them already assembled.

Hillside employs 200 people. It’s estimated that 199 vote Labour.
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August 20, 2026 8:02am
- Ghost
  
  while on the topic of rail, and slightly hijacking your post. A great video of the new locomotives being unloaded in Timaru
  
  https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/361064939/locomotive-unloading-operation-timarus-port-complete
  
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  August 20, 2026 8:08am
  - Cassandra
    
    And there may well be a case for resurrection of Hillside. The 200 workers all contribute in many ways to their community and economy.
    
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    August 20, 2026 8:32am
Yvette

The Dirty Dozen + 1

Rawiri Waititi – “so the strategy for us is the candidate vote, Te Part Maori for the seven, that allows 13 Maori to enter Parliament” – YouTube video

During Te Pāti Māori’s campaign launch, co-leader Rāwiri Waititi presented an explicit vote-splitting strategy aimed at maximizing overall Māori representation across progressive parties in Parliament, as detailed in Waatea News Coverage.

The “Political Mathematics” Behind the Figures
Waititi used the electorate of Te Tai Tokerau as a key case study to explain the mathematics of how strategic candidate voting can deliver 13 (or more) Māori MPs to Parliament:
• The Local Electorate Dynamics: In Te Tai Tokerau, Te Pāti Māori candidate Aperahama Edwards contests the seat against Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime and Green candidate Hūhana Lyndon.
• High List Rankings: Both Willow-Jean Prime and Hūhana Lyndon occupy high spots [both are 7th] on their respective parties’ nationwide list allocations, meaning they are likely to be elected as List MPs if their parties achieve standard Party Vote thresholds.

The Strategic Candidate Vote: Waititi argued that if voters give their candidate vote to Te Pāti Māori’s candidate (Edwards) while directing their party vote to Labour or the Greens:
Aperahama Edwards wins the local Māori electorate seat for Te Pāti Māori.
Willow-Jean Prime and Hūhana Lyndon still enter Parliament via their parties’ list vote allocations.
Outcome: All 3 candidates enter Parliament from that single region rather than knocking one another out.

Scaling Nationwide to 13+ MPs
Applying this arithmetic across all 7 Māori electorates creates the expanded total:
• 7 Electorate MPs: Te Pāti Māori wins the 7 Māori electorate seats through strategic candidate voting.
• 6+ List MPs: High-ranking Māori candidates on Labour and Green Party lists gain seats via party votes re-routed to those parties.
Total Combined Force: This strategy produces 13 or more Māori MPs across progressive parties, while creating overhang seats that increase the total seat count for that voting bloc.

Exploitation of the overhang loophole has always been possible, but no party has tried it because the expectation is that voters will not put up with it. If Te Pāti Māori decides it’s worth the risk to try to deliberately undermine the proportionality of the election result, and this affects who governs, there will be a response. It could be bad news for the Māori seats, or for MMP generally. Or they could fail in their attempt because voters punish their candidate for attempting to play games with democracy.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/19-08-2026/te-pati-maori-will-be-in-risky-territory-if-it-tries-to-engineer-an-overhang
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August 20, 2026 8:25am
- Cassandra
  
  Let’s hope it works and we finally conclude that Maori seats should go. And by a natural progression so should Maori everything. No Maori deputy vice chancellors, Maori All Blacks or anything else.
  
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  August 20, 2026 8:36am
- pdm
  
  Yvette I thought Mariameno Kapa-Kingi was representing her party in that Maori electorate as well. Making it a four way contest.
  
  If she is that will further split and maybe even distort the outcome if she makes big inroads into the Maori Party Vote.
  
  The Vet -who used to be a regular commenter on here and a blogger at No Minister Blog lives in the area and says it is the number one Electorate to watch this election.
  
  He still has his ear close to the ground on Political matters in the North even if he does not post these days so I give his view a lot of respect.
  
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  August 20, 2026 8:38am
rouppe

Public meeting in Christchurch last night.

As Mike Thorpe said, “an orchestrated protest event interrupted the Prime Minister on six separate occasions”.

Orchestrated. Sounding more and more like SoA, which for clarity means the group “Socialists of America”, the Mandami aligned activist group.

How long before it’s appropriated here as “Socialists of Aotearoa” I wonder…
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August 20, 2026 8:48am

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