It’s neck and neck in Wellington Bays

The Herald reports:

A key Wellington electorate race is on a knife’s edge, with new polling putting the Green and Labour candidates at a deadlock.

A Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, provided exclusively to the Herald, reveals incumbent Green MP Julie Anne Genter and Labour’s challenger Craig Renney are locked in a tie for the Wellington Bays electorate, with 29% support each.

National’s Karunā Muthu is third on 15%, while Act’s Nicole McKee and New Zealand First’s Gerald Warner each registered 5% support, the Opportunity Party candidate Kayla Kingdon-Bebb got 3% and 12% were undecided.

It comes ahead of a Taxpayers’ Union Wellington Bays candidate debate tonight.

The debate is also being livestreamed by the NZ Herald, for those who want to tune in.

The electorate tends to lean further left than the rest of the country, with this polling showing the highest level of support for the Green Party of any, on 31%, followed by Labour on 29% and National 13%.

Overall, 38% polled rate Genter’s performance as local MP as good and 18% rate it as poor, giving her a net approval rating of +20 percentage points.

She dominates among voters aged under 40, while Renney leads among those aged 40 and over, the poll shows.

It may come down to who is better at turnout – the young or the old.

It its a young electorate. 41% of those who voted in Rongotai in 2023 were aged under 40 and only 25% were aged over 60.