General Debate 30 October 2026

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2ic

Good grief! I just despair at the idiocy of the National Party leadership. Here are a couple of quotes after the poll result yesterday, that had National on 24.8%.

Nicola Willis: “…we’re working every day to grow that party vote.”
Christopher Luxon: “…get out now and party-vote National.”

Do they still not understand? National are going to win far more seats than their % of the party vote will get them, so whether their party vote is 24%, 28%, or 32%, it won’t make any difference to the number of seats they end up with.

The only clear path to getting the current coalition back into power is to party vote ACT or NZ First, and electorate vote National.
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October 30, 2026 8:01am
- Cassandra
  
  John Key in a National Party blurb: “So don’t wake up on 8 November with buyer’s remorse because you didn’t give your party vote to National or you didn’t vote at all.”
  
  Unfortunately for Key and National the facts tell us the real story. A party vote for National will be wasted. None of them will count. A party vote for National will contribute to a Labour/Greens government.
  
  Nats should give their party vote to Act. I don’t want to wake up on 8 November to say “ I told you so”.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:02am
  - Mod88
    
    National are desperate, it is no list MPs that is scaring them. I think the Coalition will be returned, Auckland is key and Auckland have not forgotten nor forgiven Hipkins/Labour. The North Remembers.
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:15am
- KKNZ2025
  
  Split Your Vote founder Harry Mowbray says Electoral Commission investigating him
  
  “The Electoral Commission took action against Mowbray in response to a complaint, which he believed was made by the National Party. A National Party spokesperson declined to comment.”
  
  https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/361052711/split-your-vote-founder-harry-mowbray-says-electoral-commission-investigating-him
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:05am
- Benedict Yu
  
  Yes but what can they say? I can’t see any party apart from the Maori Party saying don’t give us your party vote. I think that DPF has blogged on the topic.
  
  Willis and Luxon know that they are in trouble. Too late now to do anything about it.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:12am
  - Dougal10
    
    They through ignorance and arrogance made the bed in which they now lay.
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:16am
  - imalwaysright
    
    “Yes but what can they say?”
    
    After the Election they can say they used to be in Government.
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:18am
  - Tomtoddy
    
    They just didn’t need to be so emphatic and demanding. Enough voters can figure it out. They are making fools of themselves.
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:21am
  - redqueen
    
    Peters came pretty close yesterday re Bishop (albeit a tactical vote statement, not ‘strategic voting’). I still find the whole thing ‘rather odd’, in that MMP is working the way it’s designed and some people are panicking about it (even suggesting to ‘fix’ the design of the system we have…).
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:23am
  - 2ic
    
    They can just not say anything, and keep their fingers crossed that there are enough of us out here that have caught on to the overhang strategy to save them.
    
    Heck, even Winston was trying to help National out over the weekend, effectively endorsing Chris Bishop over his own electorate candidate.
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:24am
- peterwn
  
  You are only despairing because you are wanting to plug ACT. As a minor party ACT can get away with promoting policies which would be unacceptable to many voters or are going to cause trouble. This is why Chris Luxon had to defuse various ACT policies (eg allowing them to be introduced but giving no guarantee of support later – and forewarning this in negotiations).
  A lurch to the ‘right’ to try and salvage votes otherwise going to ACT would have cost National the ‘middle’ vote and reduced the overall centre-right vote.
  It also seems a strange situation where sentiment for National candidates as a group seems far out of line with sentiment for the Party at large. Again if Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop had snatched out of town safe National seats (like Papakura), they would have been open to much criticism and that would have been detrimental to National.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:19am
- Positan
  
  The political awareness and understanding of National’s leadership makes me truly despair. National’s been haemorrhaging votes to ACT and NZFirst due mainly to notable departures from its formerly established policy, along with the puerile inadequacy of its leadership that’s been demonstrated for so long.
  
  Yes, we’re all aware that National’s fiscal management is far better than anything the Left can tender – but politically, the fact that after Labour’s six years of galloping ineptitude National is polling equal to Labour, says it all.
  
  If the coalition is re-elected – and I think it will because the alternative is too awful to contemplate – it is absolutely certain that National will form a far smaller percentage of its makeup..
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:46am
  - peterwn
    
    Re last paragraph. Chris Luxon is not completely dumb. Remember he successfully put together a three party coalition last time and held it together for the full term without any serious problems occurring.
    Assuming he has the needed numbers he will do it successfully this time and the two minority parties will not find him a walkover.
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:53am
Cassandra

Ron Mark was widely regarded as a good Defence Minister. However his contribution to defence policy on behalf of NZF leads me to wonder. Perhaps Peters knew something when he put Mark low on their list.

Mark wants NZ to have a new approach to defence based on his visit to Ukraine. A drone mother ship, a marine force and no frigates.

The Pacific is not the Black Sea and Russia is not going to invade us. Our current plan is to work closely with Australia to deter war and if necessary keep it as far away as possible while keeping the sea lanes open. Drones are useful but a vulnerable mother ship by itself is not.

Mark also thinks that two frigates is set in concrete. I hope it’s three. With two at least a third of the time none will be available.

I think we’ll miss Chris Penk.
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October 30, 2026 8:01am
- peterwn
  
  Chris Penk could not read the room, which is why he is on the outer. One would expect senior MP’s to have a better sense of judgment than that. How can Cabinet make sound decisions if members lack judgment? No smile this time (unlike John Key).
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:26am
- Northshoredoc
  
  Agree with you entirely Cass, Ron Mark has got this seriously wrong.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:30am
Yvette

New Zealand First commits to introducing bill forcing Ngāpuhi to sign Treaty settlement if in government
New Zealand First deputy leader Shane Jones has committed to introducing a bill forcing Ngāpuhi to sign a Treaty settlement in the first 100 days of the next government, if re-elected.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics_election-2026/2230577/new-zealand-first-commits-to-introducing-bill-forcing-ngapuhi-to-sign-treaty-settlement-if-in-government

The Waitangi Tribunal’s 2014 He Whakaputanga me te Tiriti report concluded that Ngāpuhi rangatira did not cede sovereignty when they signed Te Tiriti. This remains a significant part of ongoing Treaty settlement discussions with Ngāpuhi. – Google

If New Zealand First stands by this election promise it will surely indeed precipitate reactions more extreme than ACTs last term emphasis of a few ‘principles’ relating to the Treaty.
Such Government action as Shane Jones announced yesterday, will settle whether Maori ceded sovereignty or not, if they have to submit to the sovereignty of Government action in making Ngāpuhi settle.
It also must preclude any sovereignty clause favouring Ngāpuhi as has been proposed.
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October 30, 2026 8:02am
- pdm
  
  How would this work as a Ngapuhi solution?
  
  My understanding is that Settlement Funds have been put aside and are earning interest.
  
  Have a cut off date and say if not settled by 31 March 2027 this fund will be paid out equally to each individual Iwi, Hapu or Tribe in the Ngapuhi area.
  
  Practicality might be an issue but maybe FOMO would get Ngapuhi into action on the matter and enable the deadline to be met.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:13am
- Benedict Yu
  
  I’m not sure I like laws forcing people to sign agreements. If the iwi does not want a settlement they can be given a deadline. But a future gumwrnmevt will just extend the deadline.
  
  The real issue here is the prevailing view on the left that Maori retain sovereignty.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:15am
  - Yvette
    
    Benedict: The real issue here is the prevailing view on the left that Maori retain sovereignty.
    
    If New Zealand First do as Shane Jones says they will, it will test whether Maori indeed retain sovereignty or not. A few “journalists” need now to ask Winston to see if he digs his heels in to the extent that it becomes a major issue in Coalition talks should their position get that far.
    
    It would likely automatically do for the Waitangi Tribunal as well, since their 2014 He Whakaputanga me te Tiriti report concluded that Ngāpuhi rangatira did not cede sovereignty when they signed Te Tiriti.
    
    Such an matter as this may bring to a crux the issue many people rate National as being utterly hopeless in addressing and raise it to a point where National is forced to act one way or the other, rather than having a cross on their bums from sitting on de fence
    
    No, I haven’t had my morning medications yet
    
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    October 30, 2026 8:27am
- Paul
  
  One cannot force someone to settle. The word that comes after “force” is “surrender”. Good luck with getting that from Ngapuhi.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:16am
- NeverMindTheBollocks
  
  If anyone can lay down the law to Nga Puhi, it’s Winston and Shane.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:23am
- Northshoredoc
  
  Shane Jones has long been a bellicose windbag, as with most of his utterances it will never happen.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:33am
- MCōs
  
  It’ll be a member’s bill that never sees the light of day and will quietly be replaced by another populist bill
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:53am
David George

This is us if Chippie and Chloe & Co get over the line here:
“On Sunday night, Brazil re-elected its left-wing president, Lula da Silva. On Monday morning the São Paulo stock market fell so hard at the open that the exchange halted trading for the first time since the pandemic.

When trading resumed, Brazil’s stock market kept falling.

It wasn’t a minor decline, or even a sudden correction. It was a full-blown stock market crash— down about 14%, its worst day since COVID. And Brazil’s currency, the real, lost about 8% against the dollar, its worst day since the 1990s.”
James Hickman.
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October 30, 2026 8:09am
- peterwn
  
  Meanwhile political sentiment against AI and data centres has knocked 40% off the price of an Australian data centre company (NextDC – ASX: NXT). The catalyst was local opposition to a 66kV power line being built along residential streets to feed its new nearly completed M3 data centre in Melbourne). The whole row of dominoes fell and has firmed opposition against data centres. Admittedly in my opinion the power distribution utility and the NextDC asked for it, even though it may be legally possible under local planning rules, trying to build such a power line through residential streets is rather unwise. Moreover they had not notified the local council which gave the residents the leverage they needed.
  The irony here is IRD needs access to data centre access to help implement Chlöe Swarbrick’s proposed 9 new taxes, but without that access, IRD may be hamstrung.
  More stock exchange routs are likely if the Loony Left gets their hands on power.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:46am
Yvette

Leoni is still on the ballot in Tamaki Makaurau however and she’s now running as an independent. The break-up with Labour means TPM’s Oriini Kaipara should be a shoe-in. But if Leoni wins she will by law be a Labour MP as voting sheets are printed and it’s too late to change her party affiliation. It will be fascinating to see whether Labour will forgive all in that case, given how tight this election could be.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics_election-2026/2226513/why-the-seven-maori-electorates-have-taken-on-special-importance

Kerrin Leoni resigned from both her position as the Labour Party’s candidate for Tāmaki Makaurau and her membership in the Labour Party itself. The Labour Party explicitly clarified that she is no longer a party member. Leoni subsequently chose to continue her campaign for the electorate as an independent candidate. – Google

Should Kerrin Leoni now make an affidavit before a court, a declaration, or take whatever move is required to establish she is no longer in the circumstances as the election papers display.
This may not clarify any win, but make it somewhat harder to unravel.

“Can she wear gloves?” “Yes. I hope she wins”
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October 30, 2026 8:15am
crash

So “Sir John Key” is emailing National supporters specifically asking for the party vote, touting a successful 3 years under Luxon’s leadership. My reply:

National has achieved a lot over the last 3 years but it has also achieved a party-vote ranking so low that it risks having no list MPs. This lack of support has been apparent now for at least a year. The Luxon-led party has not been able to work out how to reverse this, to return to levels of party-vote support they have enjoyed at past elections. That is a major failure for the party and its leadership.

There is no point campaigning for the party vote now. You are years too late.

The best we all can hope for is that those who support National will give their party vote to ACT or NZF. Every vote for either increases their list MP counts because they win so very few (ACT) or no (NZF) electorate seats. This is the only way to ensure a we get a centre-right government.
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October 30, 2026 8:29am
Grumpy Silver Top

There is an interesting piece in the Australian Spectator by Kerry Wakefield discussing the way organisations move away from their original focus. It’s discussing the theories of Jerry Pournelle.

“ Democrat-turned-‘paleoconservative’ Pournelle penned what he called the Iron Law of Bureaucracy, which asserts that all employees fall into two camps, the mission-driven and the institution-driven. The mission-driven care about the actual work – teaching children, reporting weather data accurately, media accuracy, improving health, etc. The institution-driven, however, ‘care about the survival, rules, budget and expansion of the organisation itself, eg educational administrators, union officials’. Pournelle held that inevitably, over time, the institution-driven win out over the mission-driven and increasingly control and run the organisation for its and their own benefit, as opposed to its declared aims.”

Sound familiar? My list of our own organisations following this path contains The Waitangi Tribunal, main stream media, various unions, maybe the judiciary and so on.

The full article is at https://www.spectator.com.au/2026/10/australian-notes-338/ which may be paywalled, sorry.
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October 30, 2026 8:31am
wsk12345

There was a discussion the other day about the cost of US health insurance – Alex Berenson has an article on just that today it’s mega bucks crazy!!
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/welcome-to-50000-a-year-health-insurance?r=z5cij&utm_medium=ios
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October 30, 2026 8:35am
Jethrod

Has anyone here heard reports of unregistered voters being give papers to vote? Perhaps just to shut up the masses and stop arguments?
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October 30, 2026 8:43am
- Ghost
  
  No, and it won’t be happening. Just another internet myth.
  
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  October 30, 2026 8:47am
In Vino Veritas

Obama slags Trump administration for supposedly weaponizing the full weight of the government against a political critic in Ilhan Omar.
But forgets to mention his own FBI also investigated her for marrying her brother. Of course he made no mention deliberately.
It’s funny how no hopers in American that have no hope of making their fortune, become politicians to do so. Sort of like New Zealand, but on a different scale.
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October 30, 2026 8:50am

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