Who might be an MP?
In my Patreon, I have profiled all 71 electorates, and my conclusions are 42 of the 71 are relatively safe for a party. A further 13 are likely to go to a particular party (75% too 95% likely), a further 14 lean to a particular party (60% to 75% likely) and two are to close to call (less than 60%). So 29 of the 71 seats are in some doubt, which means on election night I will have 30 tabs open on my laptop!
Having now conclude these, I have now analysed the party lists, and taking into account the current public polling averages, looked at who might be an MP for the seven parties who may plausibly be in Parliament. These are fairly simple for five of the parties, and very complex for Labour and National. The seven posts are:
As with all the posts, they are based on the public data available at the time of writing them, and don’t take into account recent events such as the Greens deciding to campaign with the Mongrel Mob!