The race for Invercargill 2026
As usual in election year, I am publishing on my Patreon, profiles of all 71 electorate races.
I am starting at the bottom of the South Island with Invercargill, which is here. This one is freely available. Subsequent ones will be paywalled. The next two will be Southland and Taieri.
Each profile looks at the following:
- Party vote
- Electorate vote
- Boundary change impact (if any)
- Split voting
- Māori roll changes
- 2026 candidates
- Demographics
- Overall outlook
Each electorate will be given one of the following ratings in terms of who wins the seat:
- Safe – 95%+ probability
- Likely – 75% to 95% probability
- Leans – 60% to 75% probability
- Too close to call – Under 60% probability
So if a seat is classified as likely for a particular party, I am saying I think there is an up to 1 in 4 chance it may go the other way. Leans means there is an to 2 in 5 chance it goes the other way.