Who will win the Israeli election?

Israel will have results in a few hours. The Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIPAC) has produced an excellent fact sheet on the election, which is very comprehensive.

This is the first Government since 1973 to last the entire four year term.

The threshold to gain MPs is 3.25% so who makes the threshold is critical. It looks like 11 to 15 of the 38 parties will make it.

The parties that support the Government currently have 64 seats out of 120. The current polls project they will get 55 seats.

The opposition parties look to be on target for 49 seats.

Again this will vary based on who makes the threshold.

There are two Arab party lists, and between them they are projected to get 14 seats.

It is unclear what happens if the Arab parties hold the balance of power, as both main parties have said they won’t bring them into a coalition. Either some sort of grand coalition, or some sort of confidence and supply agreement with one of them.

It will be an extremely consequential election.