How the electorate polls did

Having looked at how the polls did with the party vote, I thought it would be interesting to also look at the electorate polls. There were 11 electorates with public electorate polls. Seven with Curia and four with Community Engagement.

Electorate	Pollster	Date	Poll Winner	Actual Winner	Poll Margin	Actual Margin	Difference
Auckland Central	Curia	Oct-26	Green	Green	4%	9%	5%
Hutt South	Community Engagement	Sep-26	Labour	Labour	12%	2%	10%
Kapiti	Community Engagement	Jul-26	Labour	National	4%	5%	9%
Mt Albert	Curia	Oct-26	Labour	Labour	5%	14%	9%
Mt Roskill	Community Engagement	Oct-26	Labour	Labour	17%	1%	16%
Tamaki	Curia	Oct-26	National	National	18%	15%	3%
Tukituki	Curia	Oct-26	National	National	17%	26%	9%
Waitaki	Curia	Sep-26	National	National	23%	21%	2%
Wellington Bays	Curia	Sep-26	Labour	Labour	1%	0%	0%
Wellington North	Community Engagement	Oct-26	Green	Green	3%	7%	4%
West Coast – Tasman	Curia	Sep-26	National	National	6%	18%	12%

Curia got the winner right in 7/7 polls and CE for it right for 3/4 polls.

If you look at the gap between the winning and second placed candidate, Curia had the gap under the maximum margin of error in six out of seven polls. In WCT, Katie Milne won by 18% margin compared to 6% in the poll.

Of the four CE polls, only one (Wgtn North) had the gap within the margin of error for their sample size. In Hutt South they had the gap 10% too large, in Mt Roskill 16% too large and in Kapiti a 4% margin for Labour was actually a 5% loss.

Then we have the Māori electorates. As I blogged previously, these are exceptionally hard seats to poll.

There were nine polls in the seven seats.

Māori Electorates
Electorate	Pollster	Date	Poll Winner	Actual Winner	Poll Margin	Actual Margin	Difference
Hauraki-Waikato	Curia	Oct-26	TPM	TPM	23%	40%	17%
Ikaroa-Rawhiti	Curia	Oct-26	Labour	Labour	21%	11%	10%
Tamaki Makaurau	Curia	Oct-26	TPM	TPM	2%	30%	28%
Tamaki Makaurau	Horizon	Oct-26	Labour	TPM	8%	30%	38%
Te Tai Hauauru	Curia	Sep-26	TPM	TPM	12%	14%	2%
Te Tai Tokerau	Curia	Oct-26	Greens	TPM	7%	2%	9%
Te Tai Tokerau	Horizon	Oct-26	Labour	TPM	8%	2%	10%
Te Tai Tonga	Curia	Sep-26	Labour	Labour	15%	11%	4%
Waiariki	Curia	Oct-26	TPM	TPM	32%	8%	24%

Curia got the winner right in 6/7 seats (which is a near miracle) and Horizon got the winner wrong in both seats they polled.

To be fair, events had an impact. The resigning of Kerrin Leoni as an endorsed Labour candidate occurred after both polls in that seat, and probably helped increased the TPM margin in that seat.

I also think the Te Tai Tokerau result was probably as a result of tactical voting to give TPM an extra overhang seat.

So overall I’m delighted Curia public polls correctly called 7/7 general seats and 6/7 Maori seats.