What will the final balance of power in Parliament be?

On my Patreon (paywalled) I write:

The Government currently has 67 seats out of 131, so a majority of three. They are in a good position to remain Government, but what could change with the final votes?

I have modelled below what the final result would be, if the special votes follow the same pattern as in 2023. We will look at party vote outcomes, and then possible outcomes in the six most marginal electorates with a majority of under 1,000.

This is based on the same behaviour as 2023. It will of course not be exactly the same. But this is the best modelling we can do, until we know what the actual special votes this time look like.

There are an estimated 399,365 special votes. This is down from 602,488 in 2023. 3.31% were invalid last time so the estimated valid specials are 386,151.

The 2023 data tells us how many percentage points better or worse a party did on specials than election night results. Then by applying that to the 2026 data, we get the following projected final outcome.

The full analysis is behind the paywall at Patreon.