The NSW election

Today NSW is voting for their state government, and around the only suspense is how badly will Labor me mauled as it is booted out of office.

The lower house has 93 seats (of which Labor has 50) and upper house has 42 seats (of which Labor has 19). Only 21/42 upper house seats are up for grabs.

The final Newspoll before the election had the Coalition with 64% of the two party preferred vote, and Labor on 36%. Also the Opposition Leader has a 485 rating as Preferred Premier to the incumbent – American born Kristina Keneally.

Labor have held office for 16 years, so their poor polling is a mixture of longevity, scandals, unpopular policies and incompetence.

The bookmakers are only offering $1.01 for a Coalition win and $36 for a Labor win!

So the real sport will be just how many seats will Labor lose. They hold 50 and some projections have that they will lose over half of those – to 25 or less.

Q+A Tomorrow

TVNZ says:

Q+A kicks off with an exclusive interview with Australian foreign minister Kevin Rudd.

Weeks ago Rudd was leading international calls to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, so we talk to him about the unfolding conflict there and how it all might end. Has the West got its approach right in relation to Libya and other countries in the Middle East facing popular uprisings? And what’s the state of NZ-Australia relations?

Later, in a tale of two cities, Paul Holmes interviews the mayors of Auckland and Christchurch, Len Brown and Bob Parker. Our two largest cities are facing fresh starts, so what’s planned and how will they pay for their mayoral visions? Is it all hot air? And are some tough choices ahead?

Joining Dr Jon Johansson on the panel will be the Rt. Hon. Sir Don McKinnon, former Commonwealth Secretary-General and Chair of Auckland’s Regional Facilities organisation, and Unite union leader and newspaper columnist Matt McCarten.

Q + A is broadcast live 9-10am Sunday on TV ONE and repeated at 9.10pm on Sunday nights and 10.10am and 2.10pm on Mondays on TVNZ 7. 

(TVNZ 7 screens on Freeview Channel 7 and Sky TV Channel 77). 

Rudd should be interesting on Libya as he has partly led the charge there. I imagine they will ask him a bit about the results of the NSW State elections tonight also.

How a list vacancy is filled

Some of the reporting around how a list vacancy is filled, has been a bit mixed – referring to party’s constitutions, rather than the Electoral Act. Here’s how it will work:

  1. Speaker receives resignation of List MP and publishes it in the Gazette – s134(1)
  2. Governor-General instructs the Electoral Commission to supply the vacancy – s134(2)
  3. Electoral Commission determines which “unelected candidate” was ranked highest on the Labour list, which is Judith Tizard – s137(2)
  4. Electoral Commission checks if they are still alive
  5. Electoral Commission checks with the Secretary of the Labour Party that the candidate is still a member – s137(3)
  6. Electoral Commission checks with the candidate is they are willing to become a Member of Parliament – s137(4)
  7. If the candidate is dead, not a member or declines, then repeat steps 3 to 6 for the next person on the list – s137(5)
  8. If the candidate is alive, still a member and accepts then they notify that candidate’s election in the Gazette – s137(4)
  9. If for some reasons, no list candidate is eligible or accepts, then that seat is left vacant until the election – s137(6)

We don’t know if Darren has already sent his resignation into Lockwood Smith, or is holding off doing so until it is clear who will replace him. If he has already resign then those on the list may need to make their mind up very quickly – even by end of Monday.

The law is unclear about what would happen if a candidate was undecided. I guess they’d probably give them a small amount of time to decide, but ultimately a lack of an assent would be taken as declining the seat, as the xact wording is:

If that candidate is still alive and remains a member of that political party, the Electoral Commission must then inquire of that candidate whether that candidate is willing to be a member of Parliament, and if that candidate so indicates his or her willingness, the Electoral Commission must declare that person to be elected by notifying the person’s election in the Gazette.

and

If that person has died or is no longer a member of the political party or does not signify his or her willingness to be a member of Parliament, the Electoral Commission must proceed to make the inquiries described in subsections (3) and (4) in respect of the following candidate in order of preference on the party list

So a “I don’t know” would not qualify as signifying willingness, and it would drop to the next person.

Thanks ASB

John Key has announced that ASB Bank is providing the following to help Christchurch recover from the earthquake:

  • reduced interest loans and six-month repayment holidays to existing home loan customers significantly impacted by the earthquake
  • additional cash flow relief through $100 million in loans to existing small and medium business owners impacted by the earthquake
  • an additional $100 million in loans to encourage new business in the Christchurch region. These business loans will be interest free for the first 12 months
  • $1 million in grants to community groups that have suffered damage or loss

$100 million interest free for a year is a significant dent on the bottom line. It is also essentially a vote of confidence that any new businesses will do well, and their investment will be repaid.

Will the fearful five turn down 11 months salary?

The NZ Herald reports:

Labour Party president Andrew Little has sent a strong signal to the five people next in line for the list seat vacated by Darren Hughes to opt out and let Manurewa candidate Louisa Wall take it.

Mr Hughes’ resignation yesterday opens up his seat for the next person on the Labour Party list. That is Judith Tizard, followed by Mark Burton, Mahara Okeroa, Martin Gallagher and Dave Hereora. All are former MPs who did not get back into Parliament in 2008. The lacklustre line-up has long been a source of mockery from Labour’s opponents.

Mockery? No. Never.

Worth remembering that it was Goff himself who asked Twyford not to stand in Mt Albert, as they were so worried about having Judith Tizard return.

Judith Tizard, a former minister, said last night that it had not occurred to her that the situation would arise.

“I’ve had 18 years in Parliament. I know the attractions of it and I know the problems of it, so I will take time to make a decision.”

And don’t rush that decision.

She said that since leaving Parliament she had been “getting a life”, including doing volunteer work and recovering from hepatitis.

Ouch. That is a nasty illness, and does take time to get over.

Mr Little indicated Ms Tizard and the four below her should not waste too much time in making the decision. He said none was standing again this year, and it was logical for Ms Wall to take the slot.

I blogged a few days ago that this was logical for Labour. However it does rather go against the whole notion of informed voting. People voted Labour on the basis of a known party list for the 2008 – 2011 Parliament. I don’t approve of what is effectively rearranging the list after the election as the Greens often do, and now Labour looks to do. Its the same principle as you should stick to the policies you announced before the election.

But can Labour get all five MPs-in-waiting to turn the job down? How much money will they be turning down if they say no?

If they return as an MP, and retire at the election, they’ll actually get paid to three months after the election under s18(3)(b) of Civil List Act 1979. This means they’ll get paid for 11 months. What will they get paid in those 11 months?

  1. Salary of $123,350
  2. 20% super contribution of $24,670
  3. Expenses allowance of $14,000

That’s a total of $162,020 Andrew Little is asking those candidates to turn down. And they have every right under the law of the land to become an MP and get paid that money, as Labour ranked them high enough up their party list. So we await with anticipation, their decisions.

Dim and Dimmer and Dimmer

I blogged previously that when Trevor Rogers joined Ross Meurant in the Right of Centre Party, it was referred to as the “Dim and Dimmer” party.

Rogers seems to be doing his best to prove that label right, reports Stuff:

Former National MP Trevor Rogers and his wife Glenda were this afternoon sentenced to a month in jail over their continuing refusal to obey a court order.

Court orders are not optional Trevor. You can appeal them, but not ignore them.

The consensus in National is that in 1990, they won a couple of seats too many. That’s one things that makes me nervous about this election – there is a possibility National will win so many seats, that some of the new MPs may not be of great calibre.

Did Parker tip off Hooton?

I blogged yesterday how both Scoop and NBR have reports that Parker is planning a coup against Phil Goff.

Both media outlets quote Labour insiders, which means they have spoken to at least two separate people. It doesn’t mean that it is 100% certain a coup is on, but means that some people within Labour are saying there is one. Either Parker is planning a coup against Goff, or the rumour has been put out there by supporters of another leadership aspirant, to damage Parker (and Goff).

David Parker has claimed he doesn’t aspire to the leadership, but I’ve never heard an MP admit they do. Remember Winston saying he was happy to be the MP for Tauranga. I’ve seen three coups in my time in National, and they were all denied up to them occurring. If an MP truly wishes to make it clear they are not seeking the leadership, then their denial would take the form of a Shermanesque statement.

I have no special knowledge of whether a coup is on, beyond what Scoop and NBR have reported. I do have to say though that if Goff’s handling of the Hughes affair is not enough to get him rolled, I really don’t know what would be.

But there is one aspect to this that makes me very curious. Up until recently the only names seriously speculated about as leadership contenders were David Cunliffe and Shane Jones. Grant Robertson and Andrew Little are mooted as future leaders, but not current ones. So how did David Parker’s name come to the fore? And remember both Scoop and NBR say their Labour sources say that Parker will be the candidate, if there is a coup.

Well on the 11th of March, Matthew Hooton wrote in NBR (paywall):

Attention is turning within Labour to the question of Phil Goff’s successor. …

The overlooked candidate is David Parker, who has emerged as Labour’s genuine backroom intellectual and whose ambitions are now being made clear to selected media. …

As far as I can tell, this is the first time Parker’s name has been raised as a serious contender for the leadership. And the date is fascinating. It was two weeks ago. The Hughes incident was only known to Goff, King and Hughes at that stage.

Hooton makes it quite clear in his column, that he has been briefed by either Parker or someone close to Parker. And while you might wonder whether Hooton would have any relationship with Parker, the answer is he does. Off memory Hooton represented the interests of several major sectors or companies who wanted the ETS drafted a certain way, and Parker was the Minister in charge of the ETS.

So when Parker, or someone close to Parker, tipped Hooton off as a leadership contender, the Hughes affair was not a factor. In other words if there is a coup against Goff, the planning for it started before the Hughes affair – Goff’s handling of it will be a catalyst, rather than a cause.

Again I have no direct knowledge of if Parker is planning a coup. But when you consider someone obviously briefed Hooton several weeks ago, and that in the last 24 hours at least two Labour insiders have been putting Parker’s name out to Scoop and NBR, it does make you suspicious.

Adding to this is this article in the Dom Post by Tracy Watkins and Vernon Small:

The Labour Party is in turmoil, with senior figures questioning leader Phil Goff’s judgment over the Darren Hughes affair and a crucial frontbench meeting on Monday and Tuesday likely to discuss the issue. …

Yesterday he dismissed talk of a move on his leadership as “bullshit” and said he had received no criticism of his handling of the affair and expected none.

If Goff has received no criticism of his handling of the affair, then things are dire for him, as it means no one is telling him the truth. Worse, he comes across as arrogant in saying he expects none. By his own admission, his actions has been totally inconsistent with his previous statements and he has had to do a mea culpa.

But one of the party’s rising stars, who asked not to be named, said next week’s meeting was likely to crystallise how angry MPs were over Mr Goff’s handling of the issue and whether there was the will for a leadership challenge.

“It depends if people like Charles Chauvel, Shane Jones, David Parker and Trevor Mallard have the balls to say something.”

A rising star, is a term that can only apply to an MP or a very high profile candidate.

Sources said the appointment of Mt Albert MP David Shearer to the plum education job, after Mr Hughes was stood down, had only made the matter worse.

“How much consultation was there on that? There are already those in the 2008 intake who were brooding about being overlooked,” one source said.

Now that is definitely an unhappy MP being quoted.

Party president Andrew Little, who steps down on April 2 and is running for Parliament, is thought to be furious at not being told about the accusations against Mr Hughes, which he heard from reporters.

So he should be.

Scoop and NBR say a coup is on

Selwyn Manning at Scoop writes:

Scoop has also learnt that indeed a cabal representing a group within caucus is counting numbers against Goff.

Maryan Street and Ruth Dyson are representing a cabal that is seeking support for David Parker to replace Goff. And rumours that Helen Clark and her strong-arm strategist Heather Simpson have been consulted appear to have some substance.

Today, Scoop understands Parker has the numbers to roll Goff. He does have the support of the majority of the Labour caucus. But Scoop also understands the cabal will not make its move to roll the leader until Goff absorbs full responsibility for his handling of the Hughes affair.

Also, Labour’s caucus will not be meeting this coming week, leaving little opportunity for a formal leadership vote to be put.

While Parker has Street and Dyson counting the numbers, Goff is left undefended. Hughes was his chief whip, he would normally go bidding for the leader. But with him out of the picture it is left to Stevie Chadwick who does not have the clout to stave off a leadership coup.

The earliest this situation can be put to bed is when caucus meets in over one week’s time. That is unless a crisis meeting is called with all Labour Mps returning to Wellington to vote.

Scoop understands that when the Parker cabal finally decides to make its move, Annette King will also be rolled from her deputy leadership position.

This is a very detailed story, so one can only assume there is significant substance to it.

Also NBR reported today:

Word from inside the party is that the New York branch (aka former leader Helen Clark) has been involved in secret talks over the future of current leader Phil Goff. …

“I am reliably informed that Labour rank and file are planning a challenge to Goff,” a well-placed insider told NBR.

“David Parker, Maryan Street and Ruth Dyson – with the approval of the New York office – are gathering numbers to see what can be done,” the source said.

Mr Goff’s handling of the Hughes event was the final straw.

If the plotters have the numbers, they don’t actually have to wait until the next Caccus meeting. If a majority of MPs are willing to sign a letter saying they want Goff to go, then they can just present it to him in Auckland – and he will probably resign rather than test a vote.

Hughes resigns

Phil Goff has just announces that Darren Hughes has or will resign as a Member of Parliament.

No details yet, such as whether Judith Tizard is going to replace him, or if she has said she will decline the spot.

Like most people, I have always regarded Darren as a really nice and genuine guy, and it is very sad to see him leave Parliament like this. I say that recognising that there is a criminal complaint to resolve.  I also regarded him as one of the better MPs in Parliament and think given the opportunity he would have been a very competent senior Minister.

At best his judgement was seriously lacking on the night in question, and at worst he will face charges. Either way, it is a very sad way for someone who had a life-long dream of being an MP, to end their parliamentaary career.

I hope the Police reach a conclusion as quickly as possible, to their investigation.

Christchurch as the quake hits

Did the Goffice lie to the media?

I meant to cover this story on Wednesday, but there has been so much on. NewstalkZB reported:

Meanwhile the Labour leader is also maintaining there has been no misleading of media over the allegations.

Mr Goff confirms he’s known about the matter for two weeks. However when Newstalk ZB approached the Labour Party about allegations on Monday, Mr Goff’s staff denied a Labour MP was involved and claimed Mr Goff knew nothing about it.

Phil Goff says his staff hadn’t checked with him.

“I think the person that told you that told you it in good faith, she was not aware of it,” he told Newstalk ZB today

Okay so you have a situation where the media were told something false by one of Phil Goff’s press secretaries. There are broadly three possible scenarios to explain this.

  1. The press secretary knew the information was false and deliberately lied to the media
  2. The press secretary didn’t bother to check if the allegation was correct, and gave a response withotu checking
  3. The press secretary did check and the press secretary was lied to, so they would give out false information unwittingly to the media

All three scenarios are bad, but to different degrees.

I personally think scenario 1 is highly unlkely. Press secretaries know it is fatal to lie to the media, especially if they have been media themselves. You can be obtuse, even a bit deceptive. You can omit relevant stuff. You can give a non helpful response. You can refuse to comment. But it is a cardinal rule that you can not and do not say something that you know to be untrue – it means the media will never trust you again. And personally I don’t think the press secretary in question would – I think they are an honest person.

Scenario 2 is also pretty unlikely, because it means you’re totally incompetent. I just can not imagine a scenario where a press secretary is asked about whether an MP is under a criminal investigation, and you do not check with someone before responding. When the truth comes out you look like an idiot. Note Goff only said that the staff did not check with him – it does not mean they did not check with someone else.

That leaves scenario 3, where the press secretary did check, and someone lied to them and told them there was no Labour MP under investigation and that Goff knew nothing about any such allegation. It may not be an MP who lied to the press secretary – it may be a more senior staffer who did know and lied to them.

If scenario 3 is what happened, this is very very unfair to the press secretary, because they end up having misled the media, and it still undermines them in their effectiveness. Sure they may not have knowingly lied (which is worse), but the media will then wonder next time they ask a question, can they rely on the press secretary to know the truth? How do they know her boss and/or colleagues won’t lie to him or her again in order to get a denial out to the media?

I don’t know which scenario is correct, but scenario 3 is most likely, and if so then the press secretary in question is owed a huge apology by whomever lied to them, so they gave out false information.

The way the issue was dealt with by the Goffice, reminds me of a quote from a book by Harvey McQueen who worked for both David Lange and Phil Goff as Education Ministers:

“With Phil it was always the department’s or its officers’ or another Minister’s or the PM’s or someone else’s fault when things went wrong…” (p.212)

Finally in terms, of who did know, NewstalkZB also said:

Phil Goff says he had been keeping the information to himself and hadn’t shared it with his caucus.

Not telling Caucus is one thing, but what staggers me is that Goff did not tell Party President Andrew Little. I’d be very pissed off if I was Andrew, at being kept in the dark for two weeks.

Worth v Hughes

Mydeology has done a comparison of how four blogs covered the Worth scandal in 2009 and the Highes scandal of 2011, by counting up the number of posts they made over the first two days on the scandal. Their findings:

  • The Standard – 11 posts on Worth, 1 on Hughes
  • Tumeke – 6 posts on Worth, 1 on Hughes
  • Kiwiblog – 5 posts on Worth, 5 on Hughes
  • Whale Oil – 6 posts on Worth, 11 on Hughes

Their conclusions:

  • Pro-Labour blogs will comment heavily (5 or more articles) when a scandal is anti-National, but very lightly (less than two articles) in comparison when it is an anti-Labour scandal.
  • Right-wing blogs will comment heavily when a scandal is anti-National, and heavily when it is anti-Labour.
  • Pro-Labour blogs produce around 10 anti-National scandal articles to every one anti-Labour scandal article.
  • Right-wing blogs produce between 1-2 anti-Labour scandal articles to every one anti-National scandal article.

 Their post made me wonder what was my first reaction to the Worth scandal. It was:

Now this is just ridicolous. You can’t have a secret resignation – or a resignation for undisclosed reasons. The Government is bonkers if they think the reasons won’t come out, let alone that they do not have a duty to disclose them. And refusing to state the reasons will keep it as a story for days and weeks, instead of a three day wonder.

If you resign as a Minister, you need to say why you are resigning. Not the full details, but at least some reason.

So I was actually pretty harsh on the Government’s initial response.  I followed up saying:

The more I think about this, the more stupid it is not to state why he has resigned. As in majorly stupid. The public will wonder what the Government is hiding, the Opposition will assume the worst, the media will dig up dirt until they find the reason, and the Governments looks shifty. Before it is too late, the Government should arrange for either Key or Worth to explain why Worth resigned – the public have a right to know.

Do they have tape measures with them?

The next two candidares on Labour’s list are Judith Tizard and Mark Burton. If a Labour List MP resigns before the election, then they will be offered their place in Parliament.

Judith Tizard is Auckland based and Mark Burton lives in Taupo.

So is it just a coincidence that Judith Tizard was seen on a flight to Wellington yesterday afternoon, and Mark Burton was seen on Lambton Quay late this morning?

Judiciary on Criminal Procedure Bill

Graeme Edgeler has an excellent blog post on the Criminal Procedure Bill, highlighting some of the comments from the Judiciary on it. Chief Justice Elias has oppossed parts of it very strongly, on behalf of the High Court, Court of Appeal and Supreme Court Justices.

One of the key issues is the proposed requirement for the Defence to signify in advance what actual issues are in dispute. This is of course standard in non-criminal trials. Some say it removes the right to silence.

What I find of interest, and has been reported by Derek Cheng also, is that the District Court Judges (who actually do the vast bulk of criminal trials) are not oppossed to the requirement to signify in advance what issues are in dispute. They do criticise the provisions about drawing adverse inferences from what may be a failure of counsel, but on the main issue is reported as saying:

But Judge Johnson told the committee he supported cost-orders for non-compliance, and the regime that would require the defence to disclose matters in dispute.

“It makes sense for the efficiency of the trial, and it’s not unjust,” he said.

This is in contrast to the view of Chief Justice Dame Sian Elias, who criticised the pre-trial regime as contrary to the defendants’ right not to volunteer information that may help the case against them.

It is unusual enough to have Judges commenting on laws, but very unusual to have different levels of the judiciary putting in oppossing submissions.

Friday Photo: 25 March

A bit belated this morning, but Autumn can deliver clear mornings where the sunrise is appealing.

Click for larger, higher res image

To get that sun-burst effect, the trick is to close the aperture down a lot.  I picked this site so the vegetation would produce a natural frame for the image (and give more ‘depth’ to the photo)

Goff says Goff was wrong

I blogged yesterday on the huge inconsistencies between the statements of Phil Goff, Leader of the Opposition (PGLOTO) on Richard Worth and Phil Goff, Labour Party Leader (PGLPL) on Darren Hughes.

Reconciling the two stances seems to have proved impossible, so yesterday afternoon PGLPL came out and said that PGLOTO was wrong. In fact PGLPL said that PGLOTO didn’t understand how complicated these things are!

Andrea Vance at Stuff reports:

Yesterday, as criticism of his management of the latest scandal grew, he admitted he had mishandled the Worth affair: “I think I’ve learnt one or two things about the complexity of these situations. I am going to be the first to admit that I was wrong in the judgment that I made at that time.”

That’s quite the mea culpa.

I’m somewhat staggered that neither Goff, nor anyone else in Labour, thought to check back about what Goff said in 2009 on Worth. Instead he went on radio saying:

Earlier, talking to Newstalk ZB’s Sean Plunkett, Mr Goff said: “When a complaint was laid with the police against Richard Worth, I made no comment. No comment at all.”

Either Goff is not getting advice, or he is not taking it.

The Herald editorial is very critical:

Darren Hughes, one of Labour’s most promising MPs, has been ill-served by his party’s leadership. When he stood down yesterday as Labour’s education spokesman and chief whip, it served only to underline the folly of Phil Goff’s mishandling of the incident.

Indeed.

Story of the Week

Reuters reports:

Helen Staudinger, 92, wanted a kiss.

But authorities say after her 53-year-old neighbour refused, the central Florida woman aimed a semi-automatic pistol at his house and fired four times. …

Bettner, a former law enforcement officer and boilermaker, said his elderly neighbour has seemed attracted to him since he moved in six months ago. He’s not sure why.

Motto for the future – never turn down a horny 92 year old with a gun!

Hughes relieved of portfolios

The Herald reports:

Labour leader Phil Goff has announced that his MP Darren Hughes has been stood down from his portfolios while a police investigation into him is completed.

Mr Goff said Mr Hughes would remain in Parliament but he now expected the police inquiry to take longer than initially expected.

Mr Hughes’ jobs as education spokesman and senior whip will go to David Shearer and Steve Chadwick respectively.

This doesn’t mean Darren is finished as an MP. I don’t think enough information is available to jump to conclusions.

However losing these two roles was pretty inevitable. The senior whip is the maintainer of discipline in the caucus, and enough infomation has come out that would have made it very difficult to remain whip credibly.

The same goes for Education. This might be seen as unfair, but there is just no way you can go into an election with your proposed education minister being someone who picks up 18 year old first year students in bars (regardless of the issue of consent).

As I said, I don’t think one can conclude at this point about the wider career.  I actually still have money in iPredict against Judith Tizard returning as an MP.

Of course it is possible that Hughes will resign, yet Tizard will not return as an MP. How? Two main possibilities.

  1. The House can resolve by 75% majority not to fill the vacancy, if it occurs within six months of the election – so after 26 May. You have to wonder though why National would decide to vote to keep Tizard from returning, and also is Labour really prepared to have one less MP in the House, than have Judith return?
  2. Judith could refuse to take up her seat.

The problem with no (2) is the next in lines. Tizard is ranked No 38. Next at 39 is Mark Burton, 40 is Mahara Okeroa, 41 is Martin Gallagher and 42 Dave Heroera. At 43 you have Louisa Wall who has been selected as candidate for Manurea so is going to become an MP anyway. But to get Louisa in, you’d need to convince five seperate former Labour MPs to turn down six months salary and perks.

WFF changes will be post-election

Bill English just confirmed in the House that any changes the Government may make to Working for Families, will not take effect unti 1 April 2012 – after the election. This means that once again National is behaving entirely correctly – as with SOE sales.

They gave a pledge for their first term, and have kept their word. They will go into the 2011 election with a different policy for their 2nd term. This is exactly as it should be. If people do not want changes to WFF, then they will be able to stop them by voting Labour, Greens etc.

Promises are generally for one electoral term only. That is why we have elections – to decide on policies for the next term. Only when a party or politican explicitly states a policy is for longer than one term, do you expect it to never change. The most well known example of that is John Key’s pledge on superannuation, which he said was for as long as he is Prime Minister.

Is Goff gone?

The ipredict share for Goff to depart before the election has spiked up to 47c. Does someone know something?

I do not know who is buying the shares and putting the price up. In fact I have existing money on Goff staying in the job, so I hope he is not rolled.

The price has been at 10c, or 10%, for a couple of weeks, and just shot up recently.

If you think Goff is safe, it’s a great chance to make some money and sell the stock. I’m tempted to sell, and make some money. But I don’t know if the person or persons buying know something.

Goff v Goff

Sigh. Goff just digs deeper. Here is Phil Goff, Labour Party Leader (PGLPL) on NewstalkZB this morning:

SEAN PLUNKET: When Richard Worth was under investigation, you were constantly calling for the Prime Minister and other politicians to come clean and tell us what they knew and when they knew it.

 PHIL GOFF:  Let me remind you of this. That when a police… when a complaint was laid with the police against Richard Worth, I made no comment. No comment at all. And you go back and you check your records, and you’ll find out that that was true. I was asked for comment – this is when a woman I think in Bolton Street had made an allegation – I said, I don’t know. I’ve got no information, I won’t speculate. It’s up to the police, and I’m making the same comment now.

So PGLPL says he made no comment at all around Richard Worth. Luckily we can check this out.

Let’s see what Phil Goff, Leader of the Opposition (PGLOTO) said in 2009. First on Radio NZ on 3 June:

This was obviously much more than a personal matter, if it involved a, a complaint to the police, and a police investigation, I, I think, ah, Mr Key should have come clean first thing this morning, and ah, that’s what I told him on.

And om TVNZ on 4 June:

Well I, I think that when you’re talking about the resignation of a minister of the Crown, that’s a public position, therefore you’ve got to be open and transparent about it, the reasons, ah, the allegations, not the details, that’s the subject of a police ah, inquiry and, and no politician should interfere in a police inquiry, but he should’ve been upfront, I’ve received an allegation, it’s related to a police contay [sic] complaint, it is about sexual behaviour, until such time as that takes place ah, Dr Worth is henceforth suspended.

This is especially damning. He is explictly saying that one should have been upfront, announce there has been a police complaint about sexual behaviour and that the MP is suspended. It is a total contradiction of his stance today which was to say or do nothing and hope it doesn’t become public.

And also on RadioLive in 4 June:

I think in normal circumstances if an allegation is made regarding a police complaint, you would suspend the Minister, ah, pending the, ah, the police investigation on the basis that everyone is innocent until proven guilty, but if a serious allegation is made, ah, then it’s appropriate for the Minister to step aside.

So does PGLPL agree with PGLOTO? If so, then can we only conclude that PGLPL thinks the allegation is not serious? Or does PGLPL says that only Ministers should step aside when a serious police compaint is made against them, but not senior frontbench opposition MPs?

If anyone can reconcile the stances and words of PGLPL and PGLOTO, please send your CV to [email protected]

And another Labour MP defies Goff

You really have to wonder about the security of Goff’s position. A second of his MPs has contradicted him on his stance with regards to Hone. Radio Waatea reports:

Mr Goff says while he made the decision himself, it was unanimously backed by the Labour caucus.

But Mr Horomia says it’s still a long time before the election.

“You know that’s the line at the moment. What’s interesting is Hone hasn’t got a party so the issue was about working with Hone’s numbers. It’s about the numbers on the day of the election. It’s no point (saying) who is going to be the last cab off the rank and then get to the end of an election and you’re scrambling, but at this stage that’s our line,” Mr Horomia says.

Hone Harawira worked under him for six years in the Labour Department, and he has no problems working with the Tai Tokerau MP.

What is staggering about these comments is they are so easily dismissing what their Leader has said as just a temporary stance.

The earthquake recovery tsar

John Hartevelt reports:

Respected former military man and senior civil servant Martyn Dunne will be Christchurch’s first earthquake recovery tsar.

The Dominion Post understands that Mr Dunne will be formally named on Tuesday as temporary leader of a new Canterbury earthquake recovery authority.

He was in Christchurch yesterday and did not respond to a request for comment, but many sources have confirmed his appointment.

Dunne is very well regarded, and is seen as having done a excellent job os Head of Customs.