The UK Deputy PM, Dominic Raab, resigned because it was found his behaviour towards civil servants was bullying.
I have read the report and have to say that what they regard as bullying in the UK would probably just be regarded as robust feedback from a Minister in New Zealand. It seems his crimes were:
Described some work as “utterly useless” and “woeful”.
Once raised the issue of whether some civil servants were complying with the Civil Service Code
Expressed frustration to officials in a meeting about the quality of their work, without the Permanent Secretary being present
He complained in a meeting that basic information was not being provided
He once referred to a team within a Ministry as obstructive
I would like to have seen those UK officials work for Sir Robert Muldoon – after that, everyone else would be easy!
A new report has highlighted that it might be time to rethink the ownership model for the Ports of Auckland.
Speaking to the Herald’s Stock Takes podcast, TBD Advisory director Phil Barry says a new report from his organisation shows full government ownership of major infrastructure rarely drives the best results.
This is not surprising. The electricity generator companies are providing greater dividends to the Government with 49% ownership than they did with 100% ownership, and power prices had lower increases after partial privatisation than before.
Ports of Auckland’s return on assets improved from 10.1 per cent to 12 per cent between 2015 and 2016 (for years ending June 30), and return on equity went from 12.5 per cent to 14.4 per cent – but then deteriorated.
By 2017 the return on assets was 7.9 per cent and return on equity 9.1 per cent, only to see an improvement in 2018 with 8.3 per cent and 10.7 per cent respectively before the ratios came crashing down.
The return on assets fell from 5.9 per cent in 2019 to a negative 0.1 per cent in 2022 and the return on equity went from 6.9 per cent to -1 per cent in the same period.
Terrible returns.
Looking at 11 ports across the country, research from TDB Advisory found the four with some degree of private ownership consistently performed better over the past eight years.
Port of Tauranga, South Port and Napier Port all have shares listed on the share market, allowing for some degree of private ownership.
“The average return on assets for the 100 per cent-owned local government ports was around 6 per cent, while mixed-ownership ports achieved about a 50 per cent better return, or around 10 per cent on average.”
Next year the Labor Government in Australia is continuing with the tax cuts legislated by the previous Government. This lowers the marginal tax rate on all income up to $200,000 to a maximum of 30%. Once implemented, 99% of New Zealanders will be paying more income tax than someone on the same salary in Australia.
So someone on $120,000 is paying an extra $60 a week tax in NZ compared to Australia. Only if you earn over $300,000 a year do you start to pay more income tax in Australia.
This shows the average tax rate on the level of income. At $40,000 you pay 15% in NZ compared to 10% in Australia. At $80,000 you pay 22% in NZ vs 19% in Australia.
But it gets even worse than that, because GST in Australia is lower also. The difference in after tax income (so income less income tax and average GST paid) is $63 a week for someone on $50,000, $109 a week for someone on $100,000 and $165 a week for someone on $150,000. For someone on $200,000 they are paying $241 a week less income tax and GST in Australia.
Labour will soon try and push for an increase in our top tax rate from 39% to 45%, on the basis that Australia has that as their top tax rate. But that is ignoring all the tax rates below it. Someone on $200,000 in NZ is already paying $241 a week more tax (including GST) than someone in Australia.
In NZ someone on $200,000 pays $58,120 in income tax compared to $51,592 next year in Australia. The GST rate of 15% is 50% higher than the Australian rate of 10% and is more broad based than in Australia. So the overall impact is a “rich prick” on $200,000 is paying way way more tax already in NZ.
It probably isn’t until you are earning around $650,000 than you pay more income tax and GST in Australia than you do in New Zealand.
Once the tax rate for income between $45,000 and $200,000 in Australia drops to 30%, I expect to see even more Kiwis moving to Australia.
Jordan and I set up the Taxpayers’ Union almost ten years ago with a mailing list of around 100 people, under $50,000 in the bank and one staff member. It has grown since then, and this is because it gets so much support from ordinary Kiwis.
Last year we ended up with over 200,000 active subscribers to our mailing lists. That represents 1 in 14 voting adults or 1 in 19 of all adults. Every single one of these subscribers has chosen to follow us, and read what we say (people get unsubscribed if they don’t open the e-mails after a period).
The number of donors has also increased massively. Over 20,000 New Zealanders have donated to fund our work. We are arguably the successful grass roots funded political organisation in New Zealand.
As I understand it, more people donated to NZTU in 2022 than to any political party, bar National.
The vast bulk (80%) of our donations and income is from small contributions from our supporters of anywhere between $5 and $1,000 per year, with an average of $63.28 donated.
In 2018, small dollar donors made up 40% of our income and for the year to 31 October 2022 they made up 80.4%. Anyone who claims the TU is funded by a few wealthy people is lying.
A few years ago a few people got excited that one of our members was a tobacco company (no surprise – neither of us like the tax on tobacco that has fuelled the criminal black market). Well even in earlier years donations from industries (alcohol, sugar, nicotine, and construction) made up only 15% of our total annual income and now they represent just 2.1% of our total income.
This information has been on the TU’s website since November. I’m very humbled and proud by how many New Zealanders support the TU, and want to thank through my blog the many many people who have made it possible for us to be effective.
The second round of Disney layoffs hit ABC News on Tuesday, with Nate Silver’s data-driven politics and journalism brand FiveThirtyEight among those being impacted.
Silver told FiveThirtyEight employees in a Slack message that he expects to leave Disney when his contract is up, which he added would be “soon,” The Hollywood Reporter has learned.
ABC News is expected to keep the FiveThirtyEight brand name, with plans to streamline the site and make it more efficient.
I didn’t realise Silver had sold the brand name to ABC/Disney. Previously he retained rights to it, so when he left the NY Times, it left with him.
I am a huge fan of Silver. His data driven approach has changed journalism in the US for the better. I read 538 many times a week and listen to their twice weekly podcast.
I can’t imagine I will visit often, if at all, with Silver gone. And if he sees up a new entity, I am highly likely to subscribe to that.
As a pollster myself, I have learnt a lot listening to Silver talk about his predictive models, and how polls feed into that, but also his use of non polling data.
This week I was on the Leighton Smith podcast and we traversed parenting, education, leadership, Elon Musk and in NZ how we chop down high achievers, free and creative thinkers. We didn’t mention him but Martin Crowe came to mind. I have recently completed a book that is not on education but more a take on a range of life experiences so far. Next step is to look for a publisher (hint, hint … if you are out there).
Below is the chapter I wrote on Martin and the friendship I was privileged to share towards the end of his life. Martin died age 53 – just over six years ago. (The piece is published with Lorraine’s permission).
An Impact of New Zealand’s “Tall Lichen” Syndrome
By strange coincidence two of the most recent books I read during writing this cross referenced each other.
In Martin Crowe’s 1995 book Out on a Limb he notes Tom Scott as a journalist he held in high regard. In Tom Scott’s brilliant memoir Drawn Out he could well have been writing this comment about New Zealand’s treatment of Martin Crowe:
“I have learned over the years that New Zealand doesn’t have a tall poppy syndrome; that’s quite wrong. We have a tall lichen syndrome.”
It was a very great privilege for me in 2014-16 to get to know Marty Crowe. First through a business arrangement, where Marty was providing advice around media interactions, then as a friendship.
From the time I first saw cricket on TV in the late 1970s I loved the game. I played through to senior club level in my teens. It is an intriguing and very difficult game to master. At the highest level the technical and mental skills required to succeed are remarkable and experience counts for so much. A batsman successfully negotiating a ball delivered at 150kmph pretty much defies physiological explanation. I would always have rather faced a charging 120kg front row forward than a psychotic fast bowler.
Martin Crowe was called into the New Zealand team in 1982 at nineteen years of age. He was selected for a One Day International and Test match series against none other than Australia. This was on top of many early selections, in his teen years, into squads and situations when all around him were much older. The series was a disaster for Marty as, at that stage, Dennis Lillie and Jeff Thompson were simply too fast, too aggressive, experienced, and merciless. He was poorly supported by the NZ leadership, including batting out of position, and basically left to fend for himself. I was at the Basin Reserve in Wellington, as a spectator, when Martin batted for the second time for his country. It did not go well – he had been shoved into the no.3 spot and, given that John Wright was out first ball, had to go in and face the fearsome Jeff Thompson with a brand new “cherry”.
The rest, as they say, is history – Martin Crowe went on to be a great cricketer. In terms of the statistics, he played in 77 test matches and 143 One Day Internationals. When he retired, he had the most test runs for New Zealand and had inspired a nation with his leadership and wonderful batting during the 1992 World Cup in Australasia. He is ranked among the world-wide greats and is one of the very few kiwis inducted into the ICC Hall of Fame. His sublime cover drives and the ability to pull a fast bowler over mid-on were evidence enough of greatness.
There is a saying, “never meet your heroes” with the implication that they will always disappoint. When I met with Marty it was just the opposite. As I began to explain the struggles, and stresses, I was dealing with through being newly in the public eye he behaved like a true hero. I had met someone who could listen, consider, empathise, and respond. I had met someone who could sift what mattered from the chaff. I had also met someone who admitted that this was hard earned as he had so often, deeply. and emotionally, taken on board the actions and criticisms of others – including media. These were often unjust and designed to harm. In Marty’s book Raw he emotionally lays out those situations a lot better than I could here and it is best that you read that to fully understand.
One of the very great privileges of my life occurred soon after Marty had been informed that, after a period in remission, his lymphoma had returned. He turned up at our home around noon one day and we drove to One Tree Hill. We wandered across the grass of the Cornwall Park Cricket Club and found a seat on the hill with a plaque dedicating the seat, and a tree, to Marty’s dad – Dave Crowe.
For the next three hours I said very, very, little and Marty talked through many aspects of his life. He spoke of the pressures of being selected very young for many teams, but how difficult it was to say that he wasn’t ready. He spoke of the many occasions when leaders within the New Zealand cricket establishment let him, and those close to him, down and often created deep hurt.
Marty also recognised that as a young person he was far from perfect. My take on that would be – “of course”. That is the definition of being young. Our ideas are partially formed. Our emotions are raw. We make mistakes. We over-reach. Our internal critique is at its peak. That is the very time we need mature mentors who have no ego. People are needed to offer unqualified love and acceptance – not because they see potential greatness and gain (personal or organisational) but because they recognise humanity (“we have this treasure in jars of clay”).
Marty talked about his deep love for his daughter and for Lorraine his wife. He talked about how he and Lorraine supported each other through the stresses and strains. He talked about how they met and how the romance blossomed.
He talked about how in the last years of Dave’s life they had spent a lot of simple time together, playing pool, eating steak, having a beer, and how it had further enhanced the relationship. He credited those simple times for massively improving his outlook post retirement from cricket.
He talked about his cousin Russell Crowe and about, when it became known that Dave Crowe was terminally ill, that Russell booked out the cinema at Mission Bay, Auckland. He then flew from South America with the newly minted film, Gladiator. He played it to an audience – of Dave, family and friends – for the first time and then jumped back on a plane to head back to South America to continue filming another epic.
He talked about some of his great experiences and achievements and many of the people he regarded as very good friends – including the great Grant Fox whom he had grown up alongside from the third form.
He talked about many of the hurts that he had felt for himself and on behalf of others that he considered to have been poorly treated. Marty spoke of the deep care he had for Ross Taylor and Martin Guptill and the respect he had for them as both people and cricketers. I know he adored being there the day when NZ played the world cup final in Australia after a remarkable campaign in 2015. I don’t think it was of major concern to him that the final did not go the way of the kiwis – there had been so many highlights. This was a team that had played in the Marty mold.
He talked about his appalling treatment at the hands of NZ Cricket on many occasions – including ridiculous and drawn-out treatment around a match fixing comment that was both bizarre and easily dismissed. He also talked about how he had learned to let go of the hurt.
He laughed about getting in shape to make a premier club cricket comeback at 50 years of age and having the great misfortune that the first bowler he faced was the very, very fast and aggressive young Lachie Fergusson who was not in the mood to be merciful. Irony plus.
He talked about his love of the game and how he had become reconciled to the issues that he faced as if they were transitions to a better way. I think he would have been so incredibly proud of the NZ team winning the first ever world test championship.
I believe I can truly say that one of his great hopes is that we would become a nation that loved difference. A nation that allowed a young person to grow through their immaturity. A nation that is truly aspirational and does not cut down those who rise above the lichen. Things were bad enough in many parts of Marty’s career through normal media. With the advent of all forms of social media and the battles for sensationalism and clicks I am not yet hopeful things will improve fast. However, there is a push towards the well-being of all athletes and that has potential.
Martin Crowe died way too young at 53 years, 163 days. A truly remarkable person – including his sporting abilities. Someone I loved listening to and someone that many could reflect upon, and honour, to make our nation a little better day by day. I deeply appreciate every moment I spent with him. Our nation would do well to make a deal that every time a Marty comes along that we love them for who they are.
Last year I was wandering through One Tree Hill domain and looking for the Dave Crowe seat. I was deeply concerned (upset really) that it appeared to be missing. Upon checking I was so delighted that, where there had been one chair, there were now two. One for Dave and one for Marty. When I am there, I simply sit and replay the conversations.
To those that Marty spoke of with deep love and respect:
Through these fields of destruction Baptisms of fire I’ve witnessed your suffering As the battle raged high And though they did hurt me so bad In the fear and alarm You did not desert me My brothers in arms
But he is taking steps to release and has reconnected with some whānau.
There are a few people who should never be let out, and he is one of them.
The sociopathy and cruelty to not just rape and kill a child, but to torture her and bury her alive is beyond comprehension. There is no way we could ever feel safe with him out.
Revenue Minister David Parker was quick to pour cold water on the idea he was buttering up the electorate for a capital gains tax, after the release of two reports that showed the ultra-wealthy were paying tax at half the effective rate of ordinary Kiwis.
National and Act were quick to say the reports – which showed 311 of New Zealand’s wealthiest paid 9.4 per cent of their total incomes in tax, versus an average tax rate of 20.2 per cent paid by middle-income Kiwis – showed Labour was readying the electorate for more taxes and, perhaps, a capital gains tax.
The reports compare apples and pears. They compare actual income of middle-income earners to unrealised hypothetical capital gains of wealthy New Zealanders. Presumably this means the Government is planning to try again with a Capital Gains Tax, but not just on realised gains but on unrealised gains – which would be I think unique in the world.
The research also ignores the effect of inflation on assets. So if an asset increased by 7% and inflation is 7% it is worth no more in real terms, but Parker seems to think it should be taxed.
The funny thing with the millions spent on this, is that the underlying reality was already well known – wealthier people are more likely to gain their wealth from capital than from labour. Rod Drury, for example, didn’t get wealthy from paying himself a big CEO salary – he got wealthy because he invented an amazing product that has attracted millions of customers.
One thing the research did so, was highly progressive our tax system really is. If you take into account income tax, GST and transfers, the net effective tax rate for each income decile is:
Decile 1: -52%
Decile 2: -55%
Decile 3: -36%
Decile 4: -2%
Decile 5: 6%
Decile 6: 18%
Decile 7: 21%
Decile 8: 23%
Decile 9: 26%
Decile 10: 29%
So the bottom 40% of income earners receive more in transfers than they pay in tax. Even those in the 5th decile only pay an effective tax rate of 6%, because the vast vast bulk of tax is paid by those in the top deciles.
The legacy of the Winter War still casts a shadow over Finland. The conflict, also known as the First Finnish-Soviet War, saw Finland’s armed forces inflict monumental casualties on a vast invading Red Army during the bitter winter months of 1939/40.
The war, which resulted in territorial losses for Finland, taught the Finns the need for an army capable of deterring Russia from ever invading again. …
Under the Finnish constitution, every male citizen aged between 18 and 60 is liable for call-up, and each year some 22,000 men join the army. This means that Finland’s tiny standing army of around 19,000 can quickly grow to 280,000, while thousands more could also be mobilised in a time of national crisis.
Conscription also remains popular in Finland; built upon a broad societal understanding of the need to maintain national defence. A poll from December 2021, for example, revealed that 84 per cent of Finns were willing to defend their country to the best of their abilities.
In line with this defensive posture, Finland has invested heavily in big guns, giving it one of the strongest artillery forces in Europe. It now has some 1,500 weapons, including 700 howitzers and cannons and 100 heavy and light rocket launchers.
It also boasts a tank force of around 650 armoured vehicles, which includes 200 German-made Leopard 2 main battle tanks, putting it on a par with any army in Europe, including Britain.
Pushing Finland (and Sweden) into NATO has been a huge blunder for Putin. This is not some tiny country joining, but a very well trained and equipped force.
Are you politically minded and care about how government resources are managed?
Thrive leading the funding for a pressure group that stand for lower taxes, less waste and transparent government. Manage the fundraising calendar to professionalise and increase fund-raising activities, manage large donor relationships and increase income to further the mission.
You’ll carry out the fundraising plan focusing on the large donor cycle. Identify and develop fundraising opportunities using research and existing campaigns as leverage. Prepare and manage supporting materials such as pitches, collateral, DM campaigns and the CRM system. Cultivate and nurture relationships that will likely extend fundraising.
Flexibility to manage your hours will balance the need for always being available.
To create impact you’ll have the following attributes:
You keep up with news and current events, and legislative developments; it’s just who you are
Articulate, you’re a confident spokesperson and strong relationship manager
Your professional approach enables you to attend to donors, supporters, volunteers, and the Board
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The Taxpayers’ Union is New Zealand’s largest political advocacy group, using the power of our 200,000 subscribed members and supporters to fight for Lower Taxes, Less Waste, More Transparency. We raise awareness and hold politicians to account using hard-hitting original research combined with people power.
The role reports to the Executive Director and is based in Auckland CBD.
So, if you’d like to coordinate the engagement efforts for large and potential donors and care about the future of New Zealand politics, let’s talk!
US news giant CNN has fired veteran host and anchor Don Lemon in a surprise move announced only minutes after rival Fox News parted ways with its star host, Tucker Carlson.
Weird that two of the biggest names in cable news would be gone within a few minutes of each other.
Lemon was loathed by the right and Carlson by the left, so this story I imagine will make most Americans somewhat happy.
I can’t see Lemon doing anything big in future, except maybe going to MSNBC.
What will be more interesting is what Tucker Carlson does. He has been talked about as a presidential candidate and has a very devoted following. Will he set up his own platform, or go to one of the small rivals of Fox?
Green MP Elizabeth Kerekere’s bullying included shutting out and belittling other Māori MPs, staff and volunteers, new accusers from within the party say.
Since then, another two people have shared their experiences with RNZ under the condition of anonymity.
Kerekere – whose conduct is being investigated by the party – did not respond to RNZ’s direct request for comment. A Green Party spokesperson said MPs would not be commenting while the internal review was underway.
A Māori member of the Greens and active role-holder said they were compelled to speak out after seeing some of Kerekere’s defenders suggest the MP was being targeted due to her race.
“The bullying that I have witnessed from Elizabeth Kerekere has mainly been targeted at young Māori,” the member said.
This is all becoming rather toxic.
If the Greens vote to keep Kerekere at No 4 on the party list, it will look like an endorsement of her behaviour.
But if they drop her down, she will no doubt lash out and accuse the Greens of being racist and homophobic for her low ranking!
Tomiwa Owolade claims that Irish, Jewish and Traveller people all suffer from “racism” (“Racism in Britain is not a black and white issue. It’s far more complicated”, Comment). They undoubtedly experience prejudice. This is similar to racism and the two words are often used as if they are interchangeable.
It is true that many types of white people with points of difference, such as redheads, can experience this prejudice. But they are not all their lives subject to racism. In pre-civil rights America, Irish people, Jewish people and Travellers were not required to sit at the back of the bus. In apartheid South Africa, these groups were allowed to vote. And at the height of slavery, there were no white-seeming people manacled on the slave ships.
So she compares being Jewish to being a redhead, and ignores the Holocaust which was state sanctioned elimination of six million people based entirely on their race.
She is also factually wrong on slavery – over one million Europeans were forced into slavery in the Barbary slave trade.
Today I remember not just the almost 30,000 New Zealanders who died in WWI and WWII but also more recently the following who died fighting for liberty or giving aid in Ukraine:
The legendary Barry Humphries has died aged 89. His name was probably less well known that his characters such as Dame Edna Everage and Sir Les Patterson.
He was also the shark Bruce in Finding Nero and the Great Goblin in The Hobbit film.
He was arguably the Charlie Chaplain of his generation. He will be missed.
“We will be taking nominations for candidates for CLP conference delegates. There will be 4 delegates elected at GC, of which a minimum of 2 need to be women; at least one should be a young member and at least one should have another protected characteristic (i.e. be BAME, LGBT or disabled). We do not have to limit the number of nominations we make at the branch meeting. If successfully nominated, candidates will be asked to declare whether they identify with any of these criteria if they wish to be considered for the women, youth or ‘other protected characteristics’ places.”
So this branch of the UK Labour Party has come up with criteria that basically bans straight white men from being delegates!
A co-conspirator points out that if a young black disabled lesbian gets selected that could allow an old white straight guy to attend under these rules.
Across Kāpiti Coast, Whakatāne, and Whanganui, ratepayers have footed the bill for over $2 million in corporate (and middle-class) welfare to maintain regular flight services to Auckland. From 2018 to date, KCDC have gifted almost $1.5 million dollars in grants and interest-free loans to Air Chathams. Accompanied with hundreds of thousands in loans splurged by Whanganui and Whakatāne district councils on their routes, the total value of welfare is brought to more than $2 million.
Appalling waste of ratepayers money either subsidising airlines or airline passengers.
What is more is that, regardless of how cost-ineffective the provision of these services is, there remains a striking contradiction at play with the Councils’ climate change initiatives. Kāpiti Coast for example, crows about their climate change approach, acknowledging the importance of reducing their carbon footprint wherever possible. Whakātane and Whanganui are also strong advocates. Yet, they are all more than happy to subsidise gas guzzling aircrafts which, consistently, have been running on reduced passenger numbers.
Hilarious hypocrisy where they loudly proclaim we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and then they provide a subsidy to airlines.
My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell, an ally of former President Trump who has aggressively pushed baseless 2020 election denial theories, has been ordered to pay $5 million to a software developer who debunked Lindell’s data around the election.
Lindell, who promised to pay the $5 million award to anyone who could debunk his data that purportedly proved election fraud, was ordered to pay the sum by a private arbitrator, who ruled that Robert Zeidman, a software expert, successfully disproved Lindell’s claims, in a decision first reported by CNN.
So why does he have to pay $5 million?
Lindell then launched the “Prove Mike Wrong Challenge,” offering $5 million to anyone who could prove that the data was not valid. Zeidman entered the contest, submitting a report that concluded the data did not include information from the 2020 election. When Lindell’s team said Zeidman did not win the contest, he filed the arbitration.
“Based on the foregoing analysis, Mr. Zeidman performed under the contract,” the ruling said. “He proved the data Lindell LLC provided, and represented reflected information from the November 2020 election, unequivocally did not reflect November 2020 election data. Failure to pay Mr. Zeidman the $5 million prized was a breach of the contract, entitling him to recover.”
When I hear some young snowflake(s) whining about “feeling unsafe” or needing “a safe space” because someone is saying, or might say, something they don’t like, I feel my blood pressure rising. It is ANZAC Day next week, and I thought it was timely to record in one guest post the sacrifices made by those in Bomber Command in WW II – including the 1800 New Zealanders who were among the 55,000 young men who gave their lives hitting back at Adolf during the period 1940-44, when bombing was the only offensive weapon the allies had.
After the “Miracle of Dunkirk” in early May 1940, Britain stood alone, largely disarmed – most equipment was left on the beaches, including all heavy equipment – and in dread of the invasion which most serious historians now think was virtually inevitable if the Battle of Britain was lost. Due to the actions of “the few” from June to September 1940 the invasion was thwarted. We should remember the contribution to the Battle of our own Air Vice Marshall Keith Park – as he then was – of whom Sir Charles Portal, Chief of Air Staff, later said “if any one man won the battle of Britain he did”.
Without wishing to take anything away from those brave young men who flew their hurricanes and spitfires against overwhelming German numbers, the Battle of Britain lasted three months, with about 800 pilots lost. Bomber Command’s battle lasted nearly five years, and more men were lost in one raid than were killed in the entire Battle of Britain.
Once the Battle of Britain morphed into the blitz in September 1940, the only offensive weapon the Allies’ had at their disposal was bombers; in the early part of the war the aircraft were totally inadequate two engined Blenheims, and the rather better Wellington – the latter built with a geodesic framed fuselage which gave it great strength, and the ability to take considerable punishment and remain in the air.
From the beginning, all aircrew in Bomber Command were volunteers – volunteers who were expected to complete a thirty mission “tour” before being posted to a reserve or training squadron for a time. In 1940-42 the chances of an aircrew member completing those thirty missions was about 1:20 – even later in the war with much better aircraft and navigation aids at their disposal, those chances never got any better than 1:3. So during those first two years, those brave young men – the average age of a bomber crewman was 21 – knew that they had very little chance of completing their tour.
As Max Hastings has written, the percentage of those who “funked it” and refused to carry on flying was tiny: about 1.5% over the whole bomber war. It is fair to note that those who did feel unable to continue – for whatever reason – were treated very harshly, stripped of all rank in front of their peers, and required to do demeaning duties for the rest of the war. They were left their “wings” which was especially cruel – those left flying knew that the guy cleaning the toilets or emptying the rubbish had once been aircrew like themselves. How much a role that treatment played in there being so few who refused to carry on is impossible to know.
By 1943 and the arrival of the four engine “heavies” – most notably the Avro Lancaster – the chances of surviving a 30 mission tour had improved notably, but as noted earlier, the odds never got better than about 1:3. One’s chances of survival were also heavily dependent on one’s role on the aircraft. Because attacks most came from the rear, the tail gunner – or “tail end Charlies” as they were known – suffered by far the greatest attrition rate.
There were some notable outliers. One John Wainright – later a novelist – survived some 70 missions – two and a half tours – before deciding he had “done his bit” and refusing to continue. He virtually dared the RAF to court martial him and try and get a verdict that he “lacked moral fibre” (LMF) in the terminology of the day. The RAF took the wiser course and transferred Wainright to a training squadron instead.
If a bomber was attacked from behind and survived to limp home, often the best way of removing the remains of the tail gunner from his turret was with a hose – I wonder how the snowflakes who felt they would be “unsafe” listening to Don Brash or one of those Canadians who were not allowed to speak here would feel witnessing the remains of their close friend being hosed out of a gun turret? Collapsing on the ground blubbing hysterically in all probability. (And Yes I know – past generations have always doubted the ability of the present generation, but I believe the present generation of young men to be uniquely LMF. There has certainly never been this number of snowflakes before).
In the numerous individual accounts I have read of men who survived the bomber war one thing stands out – almost to a man, they ascribe their survival to good luck rather than any great skill – they certainly never claim that they were somehow braver than their fellows who were lost. Many say “I have been on borrowed time since XX June 1944”, the date being the day they got shot down and survived, or made it home by some miracle. (The Lancaster could get home on only two engines, and for very short periods it could fly on one alone).
As the war went on, navigation aids got better and better for “the bomber boys”, culminating in the Pathfinder squadrons, consisting of elite pilots who could accurately find and “mark” the target for the aircraft following shortly behind them. But rather like mountaineering in the Himalayas, getting to the target and unloading the bombs was only half the task; they still had to get home, often harassed all the way by night fighters and “flak” from the ground. There are even dreadfully sad stories of bomber crews being lost as the came in on final approach to land on their bases in England – shot down by German night fighters circling the field hiding in the dark, awaiting their return.
While the Lancaster was a superb aircraft in many ways – accepted by most to be by far the best four engine bomber in WW II – it had one major significant defect: it was difficult to get out of if it was on fire or badly damaged. There was the rear door, which required much clambering over obstacles in the dark to reach, and a rather too small escape hatch in the front. Crew often didn’t wear their parachutes – because they were bulky and inhibited movement – so if an aircraft was hit it was often very difficult to first find and strap on the parachute, and then get out of the burning or spinning aircraft to parachute to safety while there was still time.
Of all the great many stories I have read about individuals in Bomber Command, the ones that stand out the most are those in which the captain of a crippled bomber – the pilot was always the captain, regardless of rank – kept his aircraft flying so his fellows would have at least a chance of escape, knowing with virtual certainty that he – the pilot – would not survive the inevitable crash. I recall one particularly poignant photograph of a pilot looking as if he was asleep in his seat when the aircraft he was piloting crashed into a waterway in Holland, and the water was drained to recover the remains of the aircraft. He was of course not sleeping but drowned – at age 21.I simply cannot imagine the snowflakes whining about Don Brash making them feel unsafe getting into one of those bombers “night after night” knowing – especially early in the war – that they were unlikely to survive their “tour”. As I do every ANZAC day I especially remember those 55,000 young men – almost 2000 of them New Zealanders – who gave their lives so that snowflakes 80 years later were safe from the tyranny that then threatened the world.
