James Shaw has now been rolled by youths enough times that he qualifies as an Auckland liquor store

— Ben Thomas (@BenThomasNZ) February 2, 2023

This tweet from Ben is spot on. A week ago James was saying he wanted to be the candidate, and a few days later he is endorsing a 20 something year old for the seat. One can only conclude he got told by local members they would not support him.

I still believe there is a very real possibility he will lose the co-leadership to Chloe Swarbrick this year. With Ardern having retired, the logic is even stronger with a lot of young women voters now reconsidering who to support.

At the last election Labour got 44% and Greens 30% party vote in WC, with National at 15%. Now bear in mind Labour’s vote is 10% or so lower than in 2020, and it is definitely winnable for the Greens. It may come down to candidate quality. Also will National voters vote tactically.

Guest post by krazykiwi: —————————– Freedom of speech has its origins in ancient Greece (fifth century BC) when Pericles extolled the freedom to speak plainly and openly as being a key distinction between civilised Athenians and the military dictatorship of Sparta. Since then many civilisations have continued to promote freedom of speech with some key actors being Copernicus and Galileo vs the Vatican, John Milton’s essay Areopagitica (“Truth is most likely to emerge in a free and open encounter”), various human rights legislations – Sweden 1776, Norway 1770, French National Assembly’s Declaration of the Rights of Man in 1789, and the US Constitution’s First Amendment in 1791. But despite noble intentions, even ancient Athens restricted speech. Solon was a prominent lawmaker, and he banned “speaking evil against the living and the dead”, then later the Athens Assembly sentenced Socrates to death for encouraging youth to question authority. No matter how newly under fire freedom of speech might appear today, it has always been in the crosshairs of authoritarians and tyrants. The powerful have never wanted their power and their exclusive control of the narrative challenged, and many of us have been bloodied and bruised by this battle over the past three years. Unperturbed, governments now pursue so-called ‘hate speech’ regulations in a thinly disguised attempt to mute any voices that dare to challenge their ascendency. While more and more of us are fighting this battle a new front is opening up. I posit that where freedom of speech is the right to freely exchange ideas, money is the right to freely exchange value. Physical money allows two parties to agree on terms of some exchange of value. No other party is wanted or needed. The transaction is free from external moderation. Put another way, money is principally a verb rather than a noun. As technology has improved, and notwithstanding fiat currency- the world’s slowest moving Ponzi scheme – we have learned to trust mostly well-regulated banks to act as an intermediary in our daily exchanges of value. We have recently seen examples of this trust being betrayed; Canadians sending money to support the freedom truckers found their bank accounts frozen by government diktat, and organisations like the UK Free Speech Union were financially crippled after the elites running PayPal decided they didn’t like the FSU freely expressing their views. These betrayals are timely and could perhaps serve as a canary in the coalmine now that the Bank of International Settlements, the WEF, and the central banks of all IMF-member countries are enthusiastically advancing Central Bank Digital Currencies. Our own Reserve Bank published a paper on CBDCs in 2018, and they have a dedicated advocacy page. The Reserve Bank also envisages a time when cash will no longer be required. Consider the harm done to civil discourse by bans on free speech. Now multiply this harm by 1000 to approximate how dangerous will be the replacement of cash with CBDCs. CBDCs are best viewed value tokens rather than money, and individuals will inevitably be told by central government where, how and with whom they may spend these, noting that tokens can be arbitrarily removed from the holder. The linkages to social credit scoring regimes should be as obvious as they are horrifying. No matter the benign-sounding early phases of CBDCs, if the last few years have taught us anything we should now know that freedom to exchange value will be appropriated by governments and latterly their controllers who have, across election cycles, proven themselves incapable of allowing citizens to live unfettered lives. Our Reserve Bank frames the CBDC discussion as being one about ‘Private Innovation’, gently suggesting that the perceived threats of private (aka non-state run) cryptocurrencies are best met by centralised digital currencies. Don’t be fooled. No historical instrument or ideology has posed such a grave threat to human liberty as does a state-controlled CDBC. We should reject the premise that any form of CBDC is needed, and I suggest we strongly resist any proposed implementation.

Followers of US politics may recall US media had thousands of articles about some minor changes to voting laws in Georgia that were portrayed as about suppressing black voters. President Biden called them Jim Crow II laws, and there was a boycott of the states that saw sporting championships change venues because of them.

Now if these were voter suppression laws they failed as the 2022 midterms had the highest turnout in history for Georgia. But maybe it targeted black voters?

‘Well this post election survey by the University of Georgia found 0% of black voters said they had a poor voting experience. That is 0%. Not even 1% but 0%.

The two great myths in US politics are voter fraud and voter suppression!

  

A guest post from a reader:

“Since the resignation of the PM a variety of commentators have run the line that she is one of our most significant prime ministers.  

That claim bears some analysis.

I don’t have any textbook frameworks for what constitutes success in the role.  But arms-length observation suggests there are at least three key dimensions:

1. Setting out and publicly defending a vision of where the country should be going.
2. Managing the internal politics of the government.
3. Achieving what has been declared as the policy platform.

On the first the PM has been clear that she believes in kindness and mentioned that Friday as one aspect of what she would wish her legacy to be.  But kindness is not an end-point.  It is a style.  It therefore fails to come close to articulating a vision.

As an aside, I don’t minimise the empathy and compassion the PM exhibited so well.  They were great gifts.  However such attributes are not in my view central to the success of a government.  They certainly help but if not accompanied by action to address issues they soon lose credibility.

The PM talked in the early days about child poverty and homelessness.  This starts to look like a vision and indeed addressing these matters has been a priority for her government.

So lets be kind ourselves and concede that Ms Ardern did know what she wanted to achieve and took early steps to get there, even if constrained by coalition government and then Covid.

As regards managing the government it would have to be said that things were very quiet.  There were no significant disputes with NZ First and the last term of monopolistic Labour power has had virtually no overt rebellion other than the Hamilton West meltdown.

However, many would argue this was achieved by tolerating incompetence and indiscipline on the part of NZ First during the first term and on the part of her own ministers during the second.  Whether it is Willie Jackson with “that” interview or Mahuta blaming everyone else for sneaky dealings with the Constitution it appeared that Prime Ministerial sanction was very hard to provoke.

Further Christ Trotter has expressed the view if I interpret him correctly that Ms Arderns decision to leave is likely partly a function of an unwillingness to deal with the consequences within the government of rolling back aspects of the programme such as Three Waters which are both key to the Maori caucus but also crucial to electoral success.

In summary then while the government has not been restive this appears not to have been because of careful and rigorous management but as a result of a willingness to let things go (including oneself) for the sake of peace.

That’s an approach, after all sometimes it’s wise to lose a battle in the hope of winning a war, but it’s hardly one that marks out the PM as a great leader.

And then the big one… success in achieving one’s programme.

Here little needs to be said.  It has become generally-accepted wisdom that this government conspicuously lacks the ability to mobilise the public sector or the country-at-large to actually do stuff.  

It is noteworthy that its “successes” such as policy related to labour relations, abortion and dying are regulatory in nature and do not involve deploying resources to build or fix things.  Even Covid was essentially a matter of committing the power of the state to stop things happening.  Where it involved doing new things, even those as basic as procuring vaccine, the effort stalled.  Perhaps a little unfairly it is possible to see roading in this light.  Rather than fix the highways just get people to drive more slowly so they can see the potholes…..

So for me Ms Ardern can never be said to be a significant or highly successful PM.  If you know what you want and can explain it coherently but lack the ability to focus your own people to achieve it and even worse lack the ability to harness the powers of the state to do so, you are not a success.  All icing and no cake.”

Chris Hipkins said:

Growing up in the Hutt Valley during the 1980s I saw, first hand, the impact the great rolling back of the state had on many of our families. Many of the kids I went to school with had parents who had worked in the public services and found themselves on the economic scrap heap, thanks to Rogernomics. Those parents struggled to provide their kids with the basics in life.

A reader who held a senior role in the public sector at that time tells me this is not correct. I am informed there were no compulsory redundancies in the public sector. The only redundancies were from public servants who chose to take what was a relatively generous voluntary redundancy package.

Murray Sherwin writes:

In early 2020, as the world was becoming alarmed about the spread of Covid-19, the response in one country stood out as an internationally newsworthy departure from the norm. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s State Epidemiologist, was regularly in front of TV cameras, arguing that widespread mandated lockdowns were not likely to prove beneficial in the longer term and might, in fact, prove damaging in important respects. He advocated an approach relying more on individual responsibility and a clear focus on risk and effective risk mitigation in an environment in which Covid was expected to eventually become endemic.

The Swedish authorities were not completely “hands-off”. For a period, restaurants and bars were required to move to table service only, social gatherings of more than fifty people were banned, and high schools and universities were advised (but not ordered) to move to remote teaching where feasible. But primary schools remained open, businesses continued to function and the public were asked to act responsibly to limit spread, by staying home if symptomatic and generally taking care to avoid exposure. In short, it was a light-touch approach relying on people to take personal responsibility.

This approach was widely criticised, and initially the stats were bad for Sweden. But what about over time:

And a review found:

The experience for Swedish primary school students, both in terms of educational progress overall and, importantly, in terms of gaps in progress between socially advantaged and disadvantaged children, appears to be better than in other countries where schools were closed.

Closing schools in future should be a last resort.

  

The Herald reports:

An Auckland man has been sentenced to a little over two years in prison after accidentally running over and killing his partner, the mother of their six children, on Christmas Day 2021.

Was it really an accident? Read on.

Charlotte Tyrrell, 28, died shortly after falling under Marcellin Siliai’s ute while trying to stop him driving off.

He was heading to buy a packet of cigarettes and repeatedly accelerated despite the fact she was reaching through the window into his car.

The court heard Siliai inflicted a pattern of violence upon Tyrrell, which she hid from her family. A prosecutor said the violence only emerged during the police investigation into her death. …

The fact he repeatedly tried to drive forward to try dislodge and fling her from the vehicle was an aggravating factor, she said.

But Judge Thomas said a repeated instance of dangerous driving killed Tyrrell.

“You tried it, it didn’t work, and yet you did it again.”

For this he got 28 months in prison only – possibly out in under a year.

This post is by PaulL, regular commenter and sometime poster.

There is regular discussion on the gap between the number of people on a benefit and the number of people unemployed. Maggy Wassilief pointed to this paper from Stats NZ that provides some information (although perhaps not all the information we might desire).

This paper has matched the individuals in the Household Labour Force Survey (those counted as unemployed) against government data using the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) that was created under Bill English to allow insight into social statistics. This data warehouse has a bunch of privacy restrictions around it – not just anyone can access it, and privacy of individual data is carefully preserved.

How can this be?

Continue reading »

The Australian Labor Government is holding a referendum on setting up a “Voice to Parliament” for indigenous Australians, who make up 3.2% of The Australian population.

You might assume that this is because there are no, or very few indigenous Australians elected to the Federal Parliament.

In fact there are 11 indigenous Australians in the Federal Parliament, making up almost 5% of parliamentarians – so over-represented compared to their share of the population.

For the referendum to be successful it needs a double majority – over 50% of those voting nationally, and over 50% in at least four states.

`

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has appointed former Labour Party General Secretary Andrew Kirton to be his chief of staff. Former prime minister Jacinda Ardern’s chief of staff Raj Nahna has decided to leave the Beehive.

Kirton was a former staffer during the Clark government and was a campaign manager for the successful 2017 election campaign.

He is extremely well connected in Wellington. His wife, Camilla Belich is a sitting Labour list MP and is tipped as a replacement for Ardern as Labour’s Mt Albert candidate. He is also familiar with National leader Christopher Luxon, who had hired Kirton away from Labour to head up Air New Zealand’s government relations team.

Andrew is widely liked and respected as a smart political operator. It’s a good choice by Hipkins, and should lead to better political management within the Beehive, compared to previously.

  

Newshub reports:

The Government is keeping half-price public transport and the 25c a litre petrol tax cut. …

“This is an extremely dumb economic policy,” said Infometrics’ Brad Olsen. 

Infometrics has crunched the numbers on the average fuel use of people in different income bands. As higher-income households use more fuel, they save about $64 a month. Households who earn the least and use the least petrol save just $21.

“We’ve heard time and time again about tax cuts for the rich. This policy is exactly that,” Olsen said.

Tax cuts are good if you cut spending also. But what Labour is doing is keeping the petrol tax down in election year, and borrowing money to make up the difference – which means it get added to our collective debt.

In my home I had a spare room and, to put my money where my mouth is, a lady has taken it who has had a pretty hard time in life.

As she was moving-in I chatted to the gentleman who was helping her.

– “Bob” is 55yo and looks 75.

– He is a solo dad with a ten-year-old son whom he is exceedingly proud of.

– He told me that they have been housed in a run-down motel in Te Awamutu for three (3) years. Well over 1,000 days.

– And speaking of 1,000 that is how much money the taxpayer pays each week for this shoddy motel room. Yes – $1,000 a week. Yes – housing “Bob & son” has cost the taxpayer $156,000 over the last three years.

How have we, as a nation, got to this point? I have no doubt (but also no details) that “Bob” has not lived a perfect life – but does he, and his ten year old son, deserve this open prison? His son is the only child in the motel complex.

Help! Someone? Anyone?

As a highly connected aside. New Zealand has the worst homeless stats of the OECD.

By comparison on percentage of homeless:

Japan – 0.00%    Population Density of 338.2 people per square km.

Israel – 0.04%     Population Density of 400 people per square km.

NZ – 0.86%         Population Density of 18 people per square km.

​Alwyn Poole

[email protected]

Innovative Education Consultants

www.innovativeeducation.co.nz

Here is the timeline of the not at all panicked and confused Government on schools and ECEs in Auckland.

1. Schools may close if necessary
2. All schools and ECEs must close for a week
3. ECEs don’t need to close if parents need to send kids to them
4. Schools now told they may be able to open this week
5. Schools told they can open on Thursday

It has been confusion for parents, schools and ECEs. A mixture of panic and over-reach. I think Covid-19 desensitised the Government to only using its powers as necessary. Never before has an entire city had every school close for a week, due to flooding which has only majorly impacted part of the city.

Closing 2,000 schools and ECEs because 20 schools were damaged was a panicked over-reaction. We know this, as they are now trying to walk it back.

Stuff reports:

Iconic Ruapehu hotel the Chateau Tongariro has confirmed it will be closing for good in a move Ruapehu Mayor Weston Kirton​ said has left him “reeling”.

The hotel will officially shut its doors from February 5, having not been taking any new bookings for this year.

This makes me very said. The Chateau and the Hermitage are the two most iconic tourist hotels in New Zealand.

I’ve stayed at the Chateau many times, and attended conferences there. I can never tire of the view from the huge windows in the lounge area – especially when it has been snowing.

  

The new Hipkins Ministry has made what are generally sensible changes, especially moving Mahuta from Local Government and Little from Health. But the key question is whether policies will change, or merely Ministers?

Will Jan Tinetti as Minister of Education implement policies to improve the abysmal attendance rates of student, and reverse the decline in literacy and numeracy standards?

Will Michael Wood slow down Auckland or speed it up?

Will Ayesha Verrall put in place health targets that will see ED and cancer waiting times decline?

Will Stuart Nash deliver the 1,800 extra police he promised by 2020?

Will Kieran McAnuty change Three Waters so it has accountability to the public?

I have long said that the best defence NZhad against Covid-19 was being an island. It meant it was much easier to keep Covid-19 out until it turned into less severe variants and vaccinations were available.

We all know that NZ had one of the lowest death tolls in the world, but how did we do against other island nations who are developed countries. Well here is the latest data from Worldometers.

1. Singapore 290 (deaths/mil pop)
2. Greenland 369
3. Japan 539
4. South Korea 651
5. Iceland 663
6. Taiwan 680
7. Australia 714
8. NZ 772

Maybe we shouldn’t be quite as smug as we used to be.

I am one of those people who, when in the car, often have the experience of driving, through, past or over something (no humans yet) and then go; “Flip … what was that?”

A very high achieving Year 13 student (as Blackadder would – let’s call him “Bob”) from an Auckland private school contacted me to discuss the NZ education system and the data I process. Halfway through the conversation Bob said something I almost drove straight past: “Myself, and a good number of my friends no longer see the point in attending school. We know how important our qualifications are but we can learn a lot better and use time better on our own or in small groups.” Me – braking – … “wait … what?”

Keeping in mind that his school is within the top 25 achieving schools in the country I asked the reasoning of Bob and friends.
– “under lockdown we achieved at least as highly.”
– “so much time is wasted during the school day.”
– “a good number of our teachers are ineffective, humourless and not engaging at all. I can make much better use of an hour and/or my friends and I can study around a table at a café.”
– “the text books are generally good and we can supplement that with a huge range of resources now available on the internet.”

So, this isn’t a student from a struggling demographic – although I would imagine some of those are staying away from school (when they aren’t locked out like they are again this week in Auckland) for many of the same reasons. They don’t see the point, the school/system and teachers are not engaging and/or low quality. The tragedy in many cases in the poorer demographics is that they may be yet to understand the importance of the qualifications.

Parents across demographics have been equally concerned with school/teacher quality, what is being taught, and the fraught nature of many of the social interactions. Elsewhere I have written that the covid lockdowns was like the tide going out on the education system and showing all of the rubbish and deadwood.

To give myself a little credit, even if I did not understand the full implications at the time – at the beginning of last year I helped the Villa Education Trust to establish a private, nationwide, virtual/home school called Mt Hobson Academy Connected. I am no longer employed/salaried – so I can proudly just say that the staff – under wonderful, former Willowbank School, Principal Saira Boyle – with an incredible staff – are providing a “school” of very high quality. The programme can be teacher led, in superb virtual classrooms, or they have a parent led programme (with more time flexibility) where Mt Hobson provides all teaching resources and copious quantities of guidance and contact.

It is private so there is a cost (although significant less that a bricks and mortar private school). What many of the parents have told the school is that they have understood far more deeply over the last three years the “investment” side of education for their children.

They also make the learning worthwhile, aspirational and interesting. Alongside subjects these are the five weekly Projects students work through. It is well worth any family looking for better – checking out. And … rain, hail or snow … they are open.

The first pebbles have started of the avalanche. Parents in NZ (and around the world) are rediscovering that they have the power to make significant choices about the education of their children.

We know how the Ministry of Education will respond:

Damien Grant writes:

Co-governance in areas like water infrastructure, land management and the health sector has been imposed without the usual process of consultation and consent.

We are moving from a regime where historical wrongs are being addressed, to a state where one ethnic class has an inherent and enduring political status that is based on their ancestry. This cannot end well.

A very good summary. It is a model that Fiji used to have.