Here’s my 20 predictions for next year, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got 13.5/20 right for 2025.

1. NZ First will get at least 10% at the election, unless Winston does a u-turn on ruling out a Hipkins-led Labour.
2. ACT will retain both Tamaki and Epsom.
3. The Greens will retain two out of their three electorate seats.
4. Te Pāti Maori will retain between one and four electorate seats
5. National, ACT and NZ First will receive more party votes than Labour, Greens and Te Pati Maori, resulting in a National-led Government.
6. The Republicans will retain the Senate but lose the House in the 2026 mid-terms
7. Unemployment will be between 5% and 5.5% during the year
8. Inflation will be at or below 2.5% by year end
9. The 2026 Budget will forecast a return to (OBEGALx) surplus by 2028/29 instead of 2029/30
10. National will win Wigram off Labour
11. National will lose five or fewer electorates to Labour
12. There will be a new Speaker of the House
13. The general election will be in November 2026
14. PM Luxon will do a Cabinet reshuffle with Chris Penk promoted to Cabinet
15. The Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue all year
16. Keir Starmer will go as UK Labour Leader and PM after the May 2026 local elections
17. If elected, Michael Wood will announce he is a candidate for NZ Labour Leader, after the election
18. The Macrons will win their defamation suit against Candace Owens
19. All eight parliamentary leaders (incl co-leaders) will remain until the election
20. Labor will retain power in South Australia but lose power in Victoria

Radio NZ reports:

Business confidence has hit its highest level in 30 years on improving activity and on expectations of an economic rebound.

ANZ’s Business Outlook survey showed headline confidence rose 7 points to a net 74 percent expecting better conditions.

The more closely followed own activity outlook measure also rose 7 points to 61 percent positive, also its highest level in 30 years.

This is more good news to end 2025 on, pointing to a stronger economy in 2026.

Radio NZ reports:

John Campbell is returning to RNZ, as the new co-host of Morning Report alongside Ingrid Hipkiss.

RNZ’s Chief Audio Officer Pip Keane said the field of applicants for role on the flagship news programme was impressive but Campbell stood out .

“John’s experience as a journalist and host is exceptional, but equally important is his passion for pursuing the stories that matter and our audience values this strong journalism. He’s also a highly skilled interviewer, and that’s crucial for Morning Report.”

Keane says he will be a key part of RNZ’s dedicated audio plan, which aims to grow RNZ National’s audience.

John is a very skilled broadcaster and interviewer. He is extremely well known, and could well help turn around the declining numbers for Morning Report.

But in his last job at TVNZ he wrote opinion pieces which made clear (and was no surprise to anyone) that he holds string left of centre views and has a degree of contempt for the leaders of the centre-right parties, where he referred to their “heart of darkness”. Now you can have strong views on politics, and not let it affect you as a professional broadcaster. But will this happen here? Will Campbell interview Chloe Swarbrick the same way as he would Christoper Luxon? Time will tell.

The Herald reports:

A Pukekohe man found in possession of extremist Islamic State content, including beheadings and terror attacks in Europe, has failed in his bid to secure a discharge without conviction.

However, his application for permanent anonymity was granted.

Why? He has been convicted of serious crimes, and is obviously potentially dangerous. This deprives the public of the ability to know if he is their neighbour etc.

Disturbing content accrued by the 24-year-old featured footage of Islamic State (Isis) murdering civilians and encouraging viewers to attack governments, as well as endorsing certain terror attack methods that could be used in Australia.

There is a well known pathway where people go from viewing such material, to carrying out attacks.

A different video featured multiple beheadings and extolled Muslims in the West to join Isis and conduct terror attacks.

Sounds just like the sort of person who should get name supression!

The Auckland University Freedom of Expression Statement looks very good. It is clear with few weasel words. Key extracts:

The University actively fosters and supports lawful and constructive debate by its staff and students on any topic, including with the participation of external speakers invited by a staff member, or a recognised student association or student club. 

It explicitly says no topics are verboten and that invited external speakers are welcome.

The University, as an institution, will not take public positions on matters that do not directly concern university roles, functions or duties.

Excellent.

Institutional neutrality is not a retreat from important conversations, but a commitment to creating an environment where such conversations can freely take place.

This is key. Institutional neutrality allows academic freedom.

David Fisher reports:

A drawn-out internal fight at the union for Corrections’ officers has seen the organisation lose repeatedly in the Employment Court after trying and failing to push two members off its executive.

One of those members is the union’s vice-president Glen Jenner who was elected to the role in June on a platform for change.

But his electioneering call for “overdue and positive change” was among reasons given during an attempt to drop him as vice-president of the Corrections Association of New Zealand (CANZ).

How dare he suggest the union change for the better. No wonder he had to be thwarted.

Voted in by union members at their prisons, Jenner (26 years working in prisons) and Al-Bustanji (seven years working in prisons) were members of a national executive made up of delegates from other prisons across the country.

Four of those people are then selected for office-holder slots – president, vice-president, secretary and treasurer.

Back in early 2024, Jenner and Al-Bustanji had been raising their concerns about the direction of CANZ, its spending and governance.

It led to complaints about the pair, resulting in the scheduling of a two-day disciplinary process to hear claims against them.

So they raised concerns over spending and governance, and the response was to discipline them for doing so. And this is from a union that would have a fit if an employer acted as they do.

Beck’s judgment stopped CANZ from dropping Jenner from his role, saying its argument that it could do so because he was involved in suing the union was “unsustainable”. She also warned the approach risked allowing union leadership to oust “legitimate opponents, despite fair and free elections”.

So CANZ thinks people should be able to be sacked if they take legal action to defend their rights. Where is the CTU decrying this?

Simon Moutter is the Chair of Kāinga Ora, formerly known as Housing NZ. He sent the e-mail below to a few acquaintances of his, and one forwarded it onto me. With permission, I am blogging it below because I think it is such a good and interesting read.

As you may know, I took on the role of Chairing the Board of Kāinga Ora in June 2024, with the intent of doing some service-oriented work for our country. Like many New Zealanders, I’d heard a lot about them through the media. Back then, Kāinga Ora had no friends. The media savaged it on a daily basis. Practically every stakeholder viewed it as a poorly run organisation and the public perceptions of its performance were in many respects, far worse than the reality. As I got to understand the organisation, I came to appreciate the critical role Kāinga Ora plays in housing 200,000 mostly very good, albeit sometimes very vulnerable, people. I also came to respect the passionate team from all walks of life who work at 

Kāinga Ora and the many other organisations that play important roles in the social housing system.

Right from the get-go, it struck me as an opportunity to figure out if the application of the business transformation methodologies I’ve learned over my career could be successfully applied to a Government agency. Just 18 months on, it turns out they can!  The first step was to align with Ministers Willis and Bishop on a future which narrowed Kāinga Ora’s focus to its core mission – improve tenant outcomes, be a firm but fair landlord and provide and manage social housing in a financially sustainable way. Then, with the help of some seriously capable business leaders; Adrian Littlewood (who helped build the Reset Plan), Matt Crockett (who took on the CEO role for 15 months), a strong line-up of new Board Members and a handful of other experienced business transformation people, the outcomes have been extraordinary. It is the fastest and most dramatic turnaround in performance of a large business that I have been involved with. I’ve been amazed at what Kāinga Ora’s people have been able to do with clarity of focus, good leadership, faster operating rhythm and some top-shelf transformation methodologies learnt many years ago from McKinsey and taught to them by Matt and a few others we brought in from the old Spark team and a couple of other companies Matt has worked with.

Before the Reset, our tenant and community outcomes were inconsistent at best. Today our tenants are more satisfied with their homes, more satisfied with our maintenance, they feel safer in their homes and 5000 of them have moved out of rent debt, a massive stress in their lives.

Before the Reset, the organisation was on an unsustainable pathway toward annual operating deficits approaching $800m and running up debt at a rapid rate, rising from around $14bn and expected to hit $28bn within a few years, which would have put the Government’s books under enormous pressure. Post execution of the Reset Plan, we have already halved the deficit (forecast FY26) and the organisation is on track to get close to an accounting surplus by FY29. Driving this is a big improvement in operating earnings (EBITDA) which was at only $200m and falling pre-Reset, where we are now on track to deliver $1000m of EBITDA in FY27. This big improvement in operating cashflow, combined with reduced unit costs for construction, a sensible moderation of construction activity volumes and greater recycling of capital from the sale of old properties unsuitable for social housing, means debt will now peak at around $20bn, a huge relief to the Government’s books.

Before the Reset, Kāinga Ora had around 3,400 staff. Today we are down to 2,285, yet every KPI is still heading in the right direction, a reminder that with the application of strong commercial disciplines, even Government organisations can be efficient.

Matt finishes his contract period with us this month (the most I could get out of him was 15 months unfortunately) and he is handing over to Tracey Taylor, who has been Matt’s key partner in executing the Reset Plan. I am confident she will carry on with the True Transformation phase ahead of us and deliver the next wave of improvements over coming years. We all owe Matt our gratitude for his outstanding leadership and the tremendous work he has done to the benefit of New Zealand’s vulnerable people and taxpayers.

If you have 10 minutes, please click on the link below and take a look at the Stakeholder Update presentation and notes we published on our website last week. If you like what you see, please feel free to share the link with your associates. My agenda is simple – I’d like all Kiwi’s to reconsider their perceptions of Kāinga Ora, and give the organisation and its people the benefit of the doubt a bit more in future and some positive feedback when it’s due.

Regards

Simon Moutter

https://kaingaora.govt.nz/assets/About-us/Change-is-happening-at-Kainga-Ora-big-visible-change.pdf

This is both very funny and very on brand for Wayne Brown.

David Harvey has a good critique of the proposed social media ban for under 16s. I certainly support the intent that we should keep under 16s off social media. The linkage to poor mental health outcomes is incredibly powerful – especially for girls.

Even those who support the idea of a ban concede that enforcing it poses serious problems. Age-verification systems would be required, and every available option comes with significant risks.

Document-based verification demands the uploading of passports or driver licences. Biometric systems analyse faces or voices. Digital IDs link real-world identity to online accounts. Third-party verifiers create new pools of sensitive data. Almost all these options undermine privacy, create fresh targets for cyber attack, and risk excluding vulnerable teens who lack official ID.

Worse, they introduce an infrastructure of identity surveillance that could easily be repurposed. Once digital identity becomes a prerequisite for online access, anonymity disappears. Every click becomes traceable.

But David Harvey captures well the issues around a legislated age verification system. We’re not just talking people having to tick a box declaring they are 16, but actually having to prove who they are, and their age. That could result in every adult needing to scan their passport or drivers licence is, to use Facebook or Twitter.

Donald isn’t really a big fan of the 1st Amendment, is he!

With almost 1,500 votes in 12 hours we have the winners.

National MP of the Year

1. Erica Stanford 50%
2. Chris Bishop 27%
3. Simeon Brown 16%
4. Chris Penk 7%

Labour MP of the Year

1. Greg O’Connor 58%
2. Barbara Edmond 26%
3. Chris Hipkins 16%

Minor Party MP of the Year

1. David Seymour 33%
2. Karen Chhour 24%
3. Winston Peters 22%
4. Brooke van Velden 22%

MP of the Year

1. Erica Stanford 43%
2. David Seymour 36%
3. Chris Bishop 22%

The Guardian reports:

US diplomats have been ordered to return to using the Times New Roman typeface in official communications, with secretary of state Marco Rubiocalling the Biden administration’s decision to adopt Calibri a “wasteful” diversity move, according to an internal department cable seen by Reuters.

The department under Rubio’s predecessor Antony Blinken switched to Calibri in 2023, claiming the modern sans-serif typeface was more accessible for people with disabilities because it did not have the decorative angular features and was the default in Microsoft products.

But a state department cable dated 9 December sent to all US diplomatic posts said that typography shapes the professionalism of an official document and Calibri is informal compared to serif typefaces.

“To restore decorum and professionalism to the Department’s written work products and abolish yet another wasteful DEIA program, the Department is returning to Times New Roman as its standard typeface,” the cable said.

One would hope the US Secretary of State has bigger issues to focus on than what font his agency uses, but it seems not!

Radio NZ reports:

“I’ve seen media comments. I’ve had those right from day one. The reality is, I came into politics four or five years ago on our second-worst election result.

“The National Party was in a state of civil war, we’d had five leaders in five years. The media was used to a daily soap opera from the National Party and there’s been a bit of an overhang around that.

“So I’ve had that right from the get-go in all the time that I’ve been involved in politics but I know what it took to rebuild a National Party from 20 percent to 37 percent and find a pathway to win an election after being in quite a dysfunctional state, and then to be able to form a coalition government.”

I think people do tend to forget how bad things were for National before Luxon became leader.

Luxon has headed up the country’s first three-way coalition for more than two years now, defying the naysayers who suggested the government might fall apart.

He was “proud” of how the coalition partners had found a way to work together.

“It’s been very important to me from the beginning that people have space to differentiate and when you think about the six parties that are in the New Zealand Parliament, that they all have different brand positionings, different policies, different constituencies, and you have to allow space for that to happen.

“I think what you’ve seen is massive alignment at the centre and on the core, important stuff, but on the margins yes, there will be differences and as we go through the course of next year parties will be looking to differentiate.

It is NZ’s first three way coalition, and also the first three way arrangement with two sizeable minor parties. And despite that, there has been transformational policies in education, housing, RMA and transport.

Looking ahead to next year’s election, Luxon said his primary focus would be the economy, with an eye on structural challenges in welfare, health and superannuation.

Structural changes to those structural challenges would be great.

Voting is now open for the 2025 Kiwiblog Awards.

Finalists were selected based on the number of nominations they received.

The contest for National MP of the Year is between

• Chris Bishop for his RMA and Housing reforms
• Simeon Brown for his management of the health system, seeing most targets improve
• Chris Penk for numerous building sector reforms
• Erica Stanford for continuing to put student achievement at the centre of the education system.

The contest for Labour MP of the Year is between

• Barbara Edmonds for the credibility she brings to Labour in the Finance portfolio
• Chris Hipkins for keeping his team united and Labour competitive in the polls
• Greg O’Connor for respected service as Assistant Speaker

 The contest for Minor Party MP of the Year is between:

• Karen Chhour for putting children first
• Winston Peters for social media success and sound foreign policy management
• David Seymour for his many policy wins for ACT
• Brooke van Velden for excellent holidays reforms and common sense to industrial relations

Finally for overall 2025 MP of the Year, it is between:

• Chris Bishop for his RMA and Housing reforms
• David Seymour for his many policy wins for ACT
• Erica Stanford for continuing to put student achievement at the centre of the education system.

You can vote in the embedded survey below, or at this link.

I was sceptical when Christopher Luxon said prior to the election that he thought they could do a free trade agreement with India within three years. India has been a notoriously challenging country to do FTAs with, and the relationship between governments was quite poor under Labour. The thought of a comprehensive FTA so quickly was somewhere between ambitious and unlikely.

But Todd McClay, and no doubt many MFAT staff, have delivered and an agreement has been reached – in just two years. I have little doubt that the PM’s personal commitment to the FTA, alongside his trips to India, made a critical difference also.

Key aspects are:

• Tariff elimination or reduction on 95 per cent of our exports.
• Duty-free access on almost 57 per cent of New Zealand’s exports from day one, increasing to 82 per cent when fully implemented, with the remaining 13 per cent being subject to sharp tariff cuts.   
• Immediate tariff elimination on sheep meat, wool, coal and over 95 per cent of forestry and wood exports.
• Duty-free access on most seafood exports, including mussels and salmon, over seven years. 
• 50 per cent tariff cut for large quota of apples – nearly double recent average exports.
• Duty-free access for kiwifruit within a quota almost four times our recent average exports, and tariff halved for exports outside of quota. 
• Duty-free access for cherries, avocados, persimmons and blueberries, over 10 years. 
• Tariffs on wine reduced from 150 per cent to either 25 or 50 per cent (depending on the value of the wine) over 10 years plus Most Favoured Nations (MFN) commitment. 
• Duty-free access for dairy and other food ingredients for re-export from day one. 
• Duty-free access for bulk infant formula and other high-value dairy preparations over seven years.
• 50 percent tariff cut for high value milk albumins within a NZ-specific quota equal to current export volumes.
• An average of 1,667 skilled 3-year work visas per year for Indian nationals, focusing on priority jobs where New Zealand has skills shortages, including doctors, nurses, teachers, ICT and engineering.

The Indian economy will be around NZ$12 trillion in 2030. This is a tremendous achievement. Just like all our FTAs, it isn’t perfect. My ideal FTA would be one paragraph and just say “Country A can sell anything to Country B without tariffs or restrictions, and Country B can sell anything to Country A without tariffs or restrictions”.

It is worth noting that our experience with previous FTAs is that the benefits have often greatly exceeded the official projections. The increase in exports to China after our FTA with them was massively higher than expected. They are now $21 billion and in 2007 were just $2 billion.

It is no surprise that NZ First is opposed. They also opposed the China FTA in 2007, despite Winston again being Foreign Minister then also. If I recall they even ran adverts against it. History has shown them to have been 100% wrong on the China FTA, and they will be on this one also.

The embed may not work, so follow this link to watch a tyre thrown down a hill. It just goes, and goes and goes ….