General Debate 23 November 2025
A guest post by Peter Lynn:
Over the last 30 years, state sectors of Western democracies have expanded and senior level state employment, with its high pay, security and access to the levers of power became a magnet for the academically gifted, especially independence minded younger women. University educated they initially moved into ministries before spreading back into academia, and out to media, consultancies, mainstream political parties, the legal profession (including the judiciary), local government and lately, HR departments of larger corporates. During this period their political centre of gravity moved sharply left- at least partly driven by self-interest as they accrued advantages from an ever-larger government sector.
During this process they disconnected from their wider populations. Remaining family connections slowed this somewhat, but even by the early 2000’s they had rejected more traditional values in favour of social liberalism and often, an oppressed/oppressors world view. Deep into hubris and secure in their new-found wealth and power, they dived into various fashions, fads and luxury diseases. With influence in excess of their numbers, many of these causes became public policy.
But trust in the institutions they subverted has gradually eroded and by 2025 signs of a peasant’s revolt were unmistakable, notwithstanding the cancel culture and lawfare (use of legal process to intimidate) that this new elite employs to suppress dissent.
Growing opposition to destructive fashionable causes such as Open Borders (social divisions and escalating crime), Black Lives Matter (and others don’t?), Me Too (repudiation of due process and innocence until proven guilty), Gender Identity (particularly the abomination of irreversibly ‘transitioning’ mixed up kids) and Body Positive (being obese is good!?), are a sign of the push back. The rise and rise of reactionary political movements outside traditional parties is another: Trump, AfD, Reform and etc.
That there is such a revolt building is deplored by its target of course- they accuse Trumpists and other reactionaries of fomenting a culture war. But their embrace of identity politics and other spurious social justice causes set it off. Nor are they correct in labelling opposition as ‘extreme right’. Resistance is coming from ordinary people – many of whom have previously voted Left. Trump and other reactionaries are symptoms not a cause.
What is startling is the destructiveness of their various fashionable issues. It almost seems like this is intentional.
Here are some of the main ones:
Net Zero: Policies by which various Western countries have committed to zero emissions on unrealistic timeframes. Not that global warming isn’t an existential problem, but net zero fails in every way: it increases rather than decreases global emissions by shifting emissions to other countries (since 2008, the UK has de-commissioned 22 coal fired power stations while China has built around 850 new ones) and rising energy costs severely damage home economies. Energy costs rise exponentially as the percentage of wind and solar increases because of expensive ‘grid forming’ inverters, over-sized transmission lines to cover intermittency, and the cost of keeping dispatchable generation on standby. By 30% wind and solar, total energy bills roughly double – Australia, the UK and Germany for example. Above 30%, with battery storage, costs are likely to double again. Urban elites are insulated from these costs by their wealth, but the people they make the rules for are not. The peasants are stirring as their energy bills increasingly make a mockery of the “renewables are cheaper” mantra still being peddled by some governments. Net zero goals are delusional, an emperor with no clothes.
Multiculturalism: Denying thousands of years of treachery, violence and warfare between different ethnicities, religions and cultures, our liberal political classes have the delusion that cultures competing for dominance in the same space can live in peace and harmony. They generally don’t- Lebanon with its 18 official religions and endless civil wars for example. Even Belgium with historic tensions between Walloons and Flemish remains uneasy. Culturally homogenous countries like Korea, Japan, and Denmark are generally peaceful, harmonious- and prosperous. In countries with incompatible cultures, emphasizing and promoting shared values and goals can keep the peace while divergent groups coalesce- which generally happens over the longer term providing no-one stokes the grievance industry. The ‘American dream’ provides a positive model. Now, Western countries with their ‘celebrate differences’ mantra, promotion of victimhood and rewards for claiming discrimination, inflame divisions and impede this process. Integration and assimilation have become dirty words. Unthinkable even 30 years ago, the possibility of civil war is now openly discussed in the UK and in New Zealand, energetic promotion of Maori exceptionalism by the liberal establishment has created expectations that seem unlikely to be peaceably resolved.
Open borders: A subset of multiculturism, many Western countries have been welcoming people from very different cultures with almost no restrictions: granting access to social services and explicitly not requiring or even encouraging integration. Sweden is the poster child for this: after 20 years of such policies, it is no longer an envied Nordic country. Their economy is underperforming, social cohesion has collapsed, educational standards have plummeted, and crime has skyrocketed. In countries that have gone down this path, policy makers live in safe secure neighbourhoods while populations at large often become minorities in the own communities, surrounded by people who do not speak their language, do not respect the law and do not ascribe to values such as equality for women. In such areas, crime, and sex crimes in particular, are many times the national averages. Why urban liberals have done this is a mystery- misplaced empathy maybe? But the consequences are dire and long lasting. On this issue the peasant’s revolt is in full swing, with mainstream political parties scrambling to change direction- and to deflect blame.
DEI: Officially standing for Diversity, Equity and Inclusion but in practice re-establishing the Discrimination, Exclusion andInequity that only recently (and imperfectly) gave way to the principle of ‘one law for all’. Recently in the sense that the principles of equality before the law and appointments, employment and promotion based on merit not class, gender, ethnicity or religion slowly and painfully emerged from the 18th century enlightenment in Western countries. Imperfectly because such principles come up against hard wiring to favour kith and kin that evolution has programmed us with. Regression to appointment, employment and promotion based on identity alienates those passed over for being the wrong colour, sex or political opinions. Their growing resentment is a time-bomb. It also drives dis-harmony, instils a sense of entitlement amongst those who are advantaged, and unfairly labels some who are competent with the ‘DEI hire’ pejorative. Worst of all it places people who are not the most competent available into critical roles – a drain on productivity, prosperity, and national competitiveness.
Transgenderism: People should not face discrimination for innate sexual proclivities except when these lead to exploitation and abuse, especially of children. There is wide public support for this view in the West and those with divergent sexual orientations now live their lives substantially free of persecution- and can fully contribute (which they do, often disproportionately). Transgenderism is a bridge too far however- the notion that men can be women and women can be men is nuts (except for < 0.1% with genetic ambiguity) and is rejected by an overwhelming majority whenever such views can be expressed freely. What’s beyond disgusting is that for more than 10 years, transgender activists have been persuading vulnerable mixed-up children- some as young as five but mostly adolescents- to ‘transition’ with puberty blocking drugs that have irreversible long-term effects (like sterility), and even surgery. A significant proportion of children experience bouts of gender dysphoria, often because of unrelated issues, but most eventually get their heads straight again. Now, significant numbers have a life’s sentence of irreversible hormonal and surgical interventions. Fortunately, the high-water mark for this abomination seems to have passed with various medical authorities finally weighing in on the science (delayed by personal attacks and threats to their careers). The silent majority is finding its voice on this issue.
Palestine: The perennial intractable international issue- justice for one side being injustice for the other. A principle for deciding who to support in global conflicts is to go with the protagonist whose values are closest to those you think will make the world a better place. For me, freedom of beliefs, one law for all and representative government are definitive. Hence, I support Ukraine because an expanded Russia will make the world a worse place. Taiwan over China for the same reason- and Israel over Palestinians because Israel, for all its current outrageous military adventurism is a democracy, operates by the rule of law and allows diversity of religions and beliefs- while Islamic societies do not. Weirdly, if there’s one cause that binds liberal urban elites into a global tribe it is support for Palestine. Weird because Palestinian culture is in almost every way antithetical to urban liberal values of equality- for women of course but also for homosexuals and newly defined sexual identities. Islamic societies treat homosexuality harshly and women are the property of their closest male relative, cloistered at will. That affluent Western women with feminist credentials support or, at least, do not much criticise cultures that practice honour killing and genital mutilation is a signal hypocrisy. Palestine has become a notable fracture line in the culture war: urban elites are strongly (and stridently) supportive while the peasants, not so much- whenever they have opportunity to express their views free of intimidation and censorship.
Self-Loathing: The liberal establishment has come to loathe the culture that built and now sustains the world that enables their privilege. Statues are cast down, Europeans are denigrated as colonisers (might as well be for walking on two legs- also a universal human behavioural trait), history is re-written, science gives way to ‘feelings’ and ‘indigenous knowledge’. New Zealand earns its place in the world by efficient production of food but has been conducting a ‘war on farming’, loading farmers with productivity destroying regulation (elsewhere too). The preferred organics could at best support a tiny fraction of the world’s current population- but I suspect they don’t see themselves as the ones who will starve and die.
Mining is evil- don’t believe this? – just watch Avatar. Proposed mining projects in the West are besieged by nimbies and dedicated teams intent on finding reasons why they can’t happen- usually the presence of some conveniently discovered species that could be endangered. But metals and minerals are essential underpinnings of our unprecedented (in historical terms) prosperity, freedoms and social justice- that enable urban liberals to indulge their various delusions. Self-harm mental illness on a national scale.
Unfair? If you’re of the class I’ve singled out as culpable, you’re possibly thinking “but I don’t agree with all this either”. Of course, individual views differ within the liberal establishment, but diversity of opinion is discouraged by personal attacks and cancel culture.
If, because of wanting to belong, or fear of losing career and friends, you haven’t stood against this destructiveness, then you’re guilty as charged.
What Now? Will the entrenched political establishments choose power over principle and respond to resistance by some shuffling of the furniture and quietly shelving their more destructive policies?
Or will they increase repression and double down, causing the peasant’s revolt to build and eventually prevail- when the urban elites will fade into the shadows claiming that they ‘never really supported all this nonsense anyway’- like Mao’s Red Guards when they grew up and German people after WW2?
Or will this all become irrelevant when the world is gripped by a global financial meltdown- because nothing destroys delusions as fast as fiscal reality?
Whichever, irrational policies promoted by urban ruling elites that are destructive of prosperity, security and social cohesion need to be cast off if Western countries are to overcome the geopolitical challenges they are now encountering.
Peter Lynn, Ashburton, New Zealand, November 2025
DPF: Note the author is the engineer/kitemaker Peter Lynn, not the financial services executive and trained actuary.
The Putin-Trump proposed peace deal for Ukraine is so horribly bad that it makes Neville Chamberlain’s Munich Agreement with Hitler look visionary.
I will put aside the merely terrible aspects such as Ukraine surrendering Donetsk, rewarding Russia with G8 membership to focus on the two most egregious.
The first is that Ukraine must reduce its armed forces to 600,000 personnel. You would think Ukraine invaded Russia, not vice-versa. This reduces the size of their military from 4.9 million to 600,000 – an 88% reduction. The effect of this is to not only make it much easier for Russia to conquer the rest of Ukraine in the future, but it diminishes the largest military buffer between Russia and the rest of Europe.
The second is that NATO promises never to take in more members. Not just never take in Ukraine, but also Armenia, Georgia, Moldova etc. So this allows Putin in a few years to invade these countries knowing they can never rely on NATO.
This is truly terrible. It is worse than Chamberlain’s Munich agreement in that it rewards Putin for his invasion of Ukraine by not just giving him more of Ukraine, but wearing Ukraine and NATO to make it easier for him to carry on in future.
The US Government has announced they will allow 50 year mortgages, to try and help aspiring home owners.
A 50 year mortgage is a terrible idea. It means people are going to be paying off a mortgage well into their 70s or 80s, but even worse that they will pay so much more in interest.
Let’s say you borrow $500,000 and the average interest rate is 7%, for a 30 years term. You get:
Now for a 50 year term it is:
So for a smallish cashflow saving of $74 a week, you end up paying an extra $608,000 in interest.
This doesn’t help homeowners, it impoverishes them.

This is a very interesting chart from FIRE.
They report:
While political affiliation makes people more biased towards speakers who share their views, it affects their overall willingness to let speakers speak, regardless of ideology, very little. But regardless of party or ideology, men are so much more tolerant than women that the gender tolerance gap dominates the ideology difference. In fact, men are over 3.5 times more likely than women to be “perfectly tolerant” of opposing views, meaning they would definitely allow any campus speaker.
Who would have thought it is men who are the tolerant gender!
They conclude:
Amazingly, it turns out men are often more tolerant of the opposite side than women are of their own side.
This is of course US data. Would be interesting to see if it replicates in NZ.
This is a heads up that from next month, I am going to make a change to assumptions about electorate seats for any NZ political polls by Curia. This post explains why.
Up until the end of 2024, Curia assumed (as most pollsters do) that there will be no change in electorate seats held, when projecting what Parliament would look like on one of our polls. This is the safest or default position to take.
But in January 2025 National dropped to 29.6% in the Taxpayers’ Union poll which meant they would only get 38 seats based on their party vote. They currently hold 43 seats, so the status quo assumption would mean projecting they get 43 seats – an overhang of five seats. This would mean instead of projecting a CR:CL seat distribution of 62:58, it would be 67:58.
I was uncomfortable with this. I thought carrying on with this assumption would be overly favourable to National as it would be saying they will win 43 electorate seats no matter how low their party vote drops. Based on 25 years of experience I knew that if National really did have an 8% drop in their party vote, they would then lose some electorate seats. I don’t know which ones, but that it would be some.
So since January 2025, the TU-Curia poll has not assumed any overhang seats for National. This assumption is explicitly mentioned in the report.
However I have assumed that Te Pati Maori will win all its existing six Maori seats. And for seven of the 11 polls this year, this has had them having a one or two seat overhang. I justified this on the basis there was no reason to think TPM would lose any of their current seats as their party vote was slightly up from the election.
So this year the TU-Curia polls have had assumptions that actually favour the centre-left parties as we have assumed National would not have overhang seats but TPM would. I will show later how our seat projections would have changed with different assumptions.
It is worth noting that the 1 News – Verian poll makes the same assumptions – no overhang seats for National, but TPM will retain six electorate seats.
The differing assumptions were justified based on the political environment of the time. But with the expulsion of two MPs from Te Pati Maori, I do not believe it is prudent to assume they will keep all six current seats. If the purpose of the poll is to give a snapshot of what a likely Parliament is, then that assumption can’t be justified any longer.
Rather than have assumptions that change over time based on events, my new policy is that Curia seat projections will no longer make any assumptions on overhang seats. The seat projections will be based purely on the party vote. There will still be an assumption that parties currently with electorate seats will retain at least one electorate seat in terms of whether they meet the MMP threshold of eligibility for List MPs (5% party vote or one electorate seat).
| Status Quo | No TPM overhang | National overhang | |
| Jan-25 | CR+4 | CR+4 | CR+9 |
| Feb-25 | CL+2 | CL+2 | CR+2 |
| Mar-25 | CL+4 | CL+4 | CL+3 |
| Apr-25 | CR+7 | CR+8 | CR+8 |
| May-25 | CR+5 | CR+6 | CR+6 |
| Jun-25 | CR+2 | CR+4 | CR+3 |
| Jul-25 | CR+8 | CR+10 | CR+9 |
| Aug-25 | Hung | CR+2 | CR+3 |
| Sep-25 | CL+1 | Hung | Hung |
| Oct-25 | CL+2 | CL+2 | CR+3 |
| Nov-25 | CR+2 | CR+4 | CR+6 |
This shows the seat projections under three scenarios. The first column is the status quo of assume TPM has overhang but National does not. The second shows what would happen if you did not assume an overhang for TPM. It would only affect the outcome in August (from hung to CR) and September (from CL to hung).
The third shows what it would have looked like if one assumed an overhang for both TPM and National. This would have changed the projected outcome in February, August, September and October.
So again to make it clear – so far this year we have assumed no overhang for National, but an overhang for TPM. In future we will assume no overhang for either party.
One of the “safeguards” in the Electoral Integrity (waka jumping) Act is that a party leader needs the support of two thirds of their MPs to expel an MP from Parliament. S55D(c) of the Electoral Act says that a statement by the leader must:
state that, after consideration of the conduct of the member and his or her response (if any) by the parliamentary members of the political party for which the member was elected, the parliamentary leader of that party confirms that at least two-thirds of the parliamentary members of that party agree that written notice should be given by the parliamentary leader
So you need two-thirds of MPs in that party to agree. But does that include the MPs they are trying to get rid of? What is the definition of a “parliamentary member of a party”.
The Electoral Act doesn’t define it but S55A says the following:
So my reading of this is that until a notice has been delivered, you are still a parliamentary member of the party for the purposes of the Electoral Act, so you count towards the two thirds majority needed.
This is important for Te Pati Maori, as if you could the two MPs expelled from membership towards the requirement, then they need four out of six MPs in favour – and it appears they only have three as Kaipara appears to be with them.
But if you don’t need them for the requirement, then you only need three out of four remaining MPs, and they may have that.
Now I was very confident my interpretation was correct. In fact I even told a reporter they had it wrong when they said TPM only needs three MPs, not four, to expel the other two from Parliament. But an article by Audrey Young quotes the Clerk of the House saying different:
The question is whether expulsion from Parliament would require two-thirds of six MPs, the number elected in 2023, or two-thirds of four MPs, the current number in the caucus. If it is the former, the co-leaders would need to get the agreement of two others, presumably Kaipara and Maipi-Clarke. But if it is four MPs, they need the agreement of only one other.
The Clerk of the House, David Wilson, told me this morning that it appears the two expelled MPs would not be included in the count.
He said that part of the current legislation had never been tested in court.
“However, the advice to the select committee that considered the legislation in 2018 was that once a member has been treated as an independent member by the House (ie the Speaker makes a statement to that effect in the House) the member is not treated as a parliamentary member of the party for the purpose of the act and therefore would not be part of the two-thirds of parliamentary members needed for the purposes of s 55D(c).”
It also appeared to have been the Supreme Court’s view in the Donna Awatere Huata case under the earlier incarnation of the legislation.
“So, it appears that s 55D(c) would not require the two expelled members to be included in the two-thirds majority of parliamentary members.”
Now when it comes to issues around Parliament, I would go with what the Clerk of the House says, over my own reckons around 99 times out of 100. I have huge regard for the Clerk.
But I’m not convinced I am wrong in this case. I have read the Huata case and it is true that they said Awatere-Huata was no longer a parliamentary member of ACT. But their focus was on whether ACT were able to use the waka jumping law against her, and not on whether for the purposes of the two thirds majority you include her or not. To me the Electoral Act is quite clear that you are a member of your parliamentary party until such time as the formal letter is filed with the Speaker.
A stronger argument is the advice to the select committee in 2018. The Ministry of Justice did say that if a party had expelled an MP who is in a caucus of two, then the remaining MP can get them expelled from Parliament. If it went to court, this could signify that the intent of the law was that the two thirds majority would exclude the MPs who had been expelled from the party.
However I still think this conflicts with the wording of the Act, and advice from the Ministry of Justice is not as persuasive as say a speech in Hansard about the intent of the law from an actual Minister or MP.
We may find out in time. If TPM do try to expel from Parliament the MPs for Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga with fewer than four MPs in favour, then the Speaker will have to rule on how to interpret the law. I would expect the Speaker would favour the view of the Clerk.
It is very possible though that one of the two MPs would seek a judicial review of the statement under S55D before it gets submitted to the Speaker, in which case the High Court will rule on it.
If it turns out that the two thirds majority needed doesn’t include the MPs the party its trying to expel, then it shows the law is even more dangerous than thought.
Under this interpretation, you could have a party of say 12 MPs. Let’s say 10 MPs decide they have no confidence in the leader. However the leader has a majority of the party’s ruling body. The leader could get those 10 MPs expelled from the party, and then the two remaining MPs could vote to expel those 10 MPs from Parliament. If they were List MPs, then their spots would be taken by the next on the list.
This makes control of the ruling body incredibly vital. You no longer need a majority in caucus, if you can get the ruling body to expel MPs from the party, and then from Parliament.
To a degree this is what is happening in TPM. There is no dispute over policy or principle. The Tamihere faction thought one or both MPs might challenge for the leadership, and hence got them expelled from the party before they could challenge. And now they might be able to get them expelled from Parliament also. They could even pressure the remaining TPM MPs to vote to expel them from Parliament, by threatening to expel them also if they don’t comply.
Stuff has details of the transport plan by the Government for Wellington. It is brilliant. The noisy people against are a small minority. Many polls have shown strong support for increasing the capacity of the Mt Vic and Terrace tunnels. The same people fought the inner city bypass for years, and today it is entirely uncontroversial and has improved getting through the city considerably.
The key details are:
What this basically delivers is four lanes on SH1 from the airport to Otaki. It will be hugely hugely popular, once delivered.
This video shows what SH1 will look like, if implemented. Have a view – it looks great.
Nathan Boulter has pleaded guilty to murdering a Christchurch woman.
I have followed Boulter for a while, because he kidnapped and held hostage his former girlfriend on Great Barrier Island in 2010. She only survived because she tricked him. Great Barrier is a place I have visited many many times with Nikki Kaye (who was their local MP) and the island is a wonderful community. The kidnapping of Nortessa Montgomerie by him, was like the kidnapping of a family member to many Islanders. Everyone knows everyone.
As it happens I recall hearing that it was actually some of the locals on the island who located Boulter before the Police did, and that they gave him what is best to be described euphemistically as a very stern talking to about what they thought of his actions, and how he would get a further “stern talking to” if he ever appeared on Great Barrier again. By coincidence it seems he also injured himself trying to run away down a bank.
Here is his record:
The Parole Board in 2023 said:
They were wrong. He has stalked and threatened so many women, it is absolutely unsurprising that he finally killed one.
His sentences were all manifestly inadequate. You might give someone a one month sentence for their first threatening offence, but when he has been doing it for so long to so many, you should be keeping him locked up as long as possible.
The murdered women’s death was preventable. This is why we need a regime where repeat violent offenders don’t get short sentences and don’t get parole.
I sent in an OIA to Crown Law on the 16th of October asking:
any communication between Crown Law and the Broadcasting Standards Authority around whether a person who publishes audio and video over the Internet can be regarded as a broadcaster under the Broadcastings Act 1989.
If there is such advice, and it is legally privileged, I would still like to know whether such advice was sought and given, even if the actual advice can’t be provided.
Crown Law has responded:
We have found no record of any advice provided by Crown Law on the matter you identified.
This is very telling. Crown Law is the Government’s Legal Advisor. If the BSA had gone to Crown Law for legal advice on whether a publisher of video or audio over the Internet can be considered a broadcaster under the Broadcasting Act, and considered that advice in deciding that they were, then they would be on more defensible grounds.
But they didn’t. They just got around a table and said “Hey let’s expand to include the Internet”.
This whole episode just reeks of bad faith.
The Herald reported:
Tourism New Zealand is spending $6.3 million to bring the Michelin Guide – the world’s most famous restaurant ranking system – to Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Queenstown.
Inspectors have been dining here anonymously for more than a year with the first local edition of the guide due for release on June 4 next year.
An estimated 36,000 more international visitors could result from the guide’s move into New Zealand, Louise Upston, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality, said today.
With respect I don’t think being in the guide will bring a single more international visitor to New Zealand.
Does anyone in New Zealand fly to Australia just to go to a nice restaurant?
A Michelin Star will definitely be a huge boon to a restaurant getting one.
It could well lead to more domestic tourism. If a restaurant in Christchurch got a Michelin Star, I would probably find an excuse to visit Christchurch so I could dine there, once I got a booking.
But I don’t think it will in any way impact how many people decide to visit New Zealand from overseas. So on that basis, I regard it as a poor investment from Tourism NZ.
A Summary of Cameron Bagrie’s Business Desk Piece on Education (all quotes below)
– Do we have equality of opportunity in schooling? We’d like to think so. I’ve heard many politicians talk about it. We do not have it.
– Education is one of my bugbears that I consider an essential part of the economic formula for addressing social challenges and increasing living standards.
– In the race of life and schooling [some] have a massive head-start courtesy of wealth, parents’ education and income, the school zone grown up in, family support, whether parents own their own home or rent, are still married, haven’t been in prison, or subject to physical harm to name a few.
– The operational funding for primary and secondary schools, including teachers’ salary, was around $7.9 billion in 2024. It works out to be around $9,300 per student. This excludes private schools.
– Teacher’s remuneration is the biggest cheque by a long shot coming in around $5.4 billion in 2024. The government directly funds that but try running a budget with a fixed wage cost representing 70 percent of your operation. You do not have many levers left to play with if you have an unexpected expense or underlying pressures.
– To help level the playing field, schools have access to Equity Funding.
– The EQI is a mechanism that tries to understand the relationship between social and economic factors and student achievement. The EQI determines how much equity funding a school receives in addition to their regular funding. The higher the EQI, the more funding the school receives per student. It starts at zero (EQI 344) but goes up to around $1,100 per student (EQI 569).
– Attend a 350 EQI school and the data tells us more than 80 per cent will get NCEA level 3 and retention in school to age 17 is more than 90 percent. Sixty percent will get a bachelor’s degree or level 7 qualification.
– Attend a high EQI school (>500) and the average for NCEA level 3 achievement is less than 40 per cent though there are outliers. The (average) percentage progressing to getting a degree is less than 10 percent. The same divergences apply with attendance.
– Equity Index funding in 2024 was less than $250 million in total against direct spending of $7.9 billion. Compare that to $2.5 billion of departmental output expenditure and several hundred million on school lunches.
– EQI funding is around 3 per cent of primary and secondary schools operational and teachers pay funding, yet it is one of the mechanisms we are trying to level the playing field. Three percent! I almost fell off my chair.
However, as a comparator, consider what as parents you might pay in donations if your child goes to a low EQI school. Odds are it’ll be more than $1,100.
I recently visited a school with very low attendance and lots of gang related students. The principal showed me the Budget. EQI funding was 5 per cent of total funding. Some things that chewed up their EQI contribution … Loaner uniforms. Stationery. Sport transport and payment of fees (because parents can’t). Licenses. Vandalism. Bus hire for trips and visits. This is before a cent is directed at core teaching.
– We spend more on the winter energy payment than we spend on EQI funding.
The EQI funding rate rises by 1.5 per cent between 2025 and 2026. Inflation is 3 per cent. The effective funding has been cut.
The EQI contribution needs to be lifted a long way if we are serious about equality of opportunity. $1,100 [at the MOST] is simply not enough.
Winston Peters announced:
The Government has saved the taxpayer billions with two new Interislander ferries from Guangzhou Shipyard International and no-nonsense infrastructure in Picton and Wellington, Rail Minister Winston Peters announced today.
“Two new ferries serving road and rail will enter Cook Strait service in 2029, thanks to a $596 million fixed price contract between Ferry Holdings and experienced shipbuilder Guangzhou Shipyard International,” Mr Peters says.
“The total programme will cost less than $2 billion, with the taxpayer contribution coming in under the $1.7 billion allocated at the start of this year.
“Spending less than $1.7 billion means the taxpayer has saved $2.3 billion while still getting the ferries and infrastructure they want, because we have done away with the expensive consultants who hijacked the project by adding more and more infrastructure until Treasury warned the project would cost $4 billion.
That is a massive saving. There’s now more money available to health and education infrastructure – rather than ferry terminals.
Readers may recall a decade or so ago Brian Tamaki blamed an earthquake on gay marriage. He was rightfully mocked for this. It’s both crass and lunacy to blame something like an earthquake on whether or not gays can marry.
Well to match that we have the MP for Tamaki Makaurau MP saying:
A Te Pāti Māori MP says the fire that devastated the Tongariro National Park could be a message from a paramount chief who died earlier this year.
Oriini Kaipara, a former broadcaster who won the recent Tāmaki Makaurau byelection, said the blaze could be taken as a sign to return the land to Māori.
This is the same level of lunacy. But you can be sure very few people will say that Kaipara should be mocked for her views.
I believe both statements are lunacy. I don’t think God caused an earthquake because of a vote in Parliament and I don’t think Mahuika started a fire because of Tongariro National Park is owned by the Department of Conservation.
But to many on the left they would say that it is crazy to state that the Abrahamic God caused an earthquake due to a political issue, but the belief that Mahuika caused a bushfire due to land ownership is a legitimate cultural belief that should be respected!
Note I am not saying the belief in God or Gods should be mocked. It is when people ascribe specific events to Godly interference that they should be mocked – the idea that these people personally know it is divine interference.
On the 6th of November at 3 pm Mike Davidson gave his maiden speech as a new Green Party MP in Wellington.
At 4 pm he was meant to be getting sworn in at the inaugural meeting of the Waipapa Papanui-Innes-Central Community Board in Christchurch. He missed that meeting.
This is why MPs should not also be on local government. You can’t do both jobs.
Prince Andrew (or, as we must now call him, Andrew Windsor) was accused some years ago of sexual assault by Virginia Giuffre. She alleged that she was sex trafficked to him as a 17-year-old by Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, the latter of whom was convicted of child sex trafficking in 2021. Queen Elizabeth imposed various sanctions on Windsor in 2022, and recently King Charles went further, stripping him of his titles and ejecting him from his royal accommodation.
Giuffre took a civil lawsuit against Windsor, resulting in a settlement involving a financial payout. Although I accept this is not a good look, it is notable that Windsor issued a statement at the time continuing to deny wrongdoing. The situation is entirely different from a finding of guilt by a court following due process. Nevertheless, he is being treated as if he were already found guilty.
In my opinion, if the Police are satisfied that there is a sufficient case to answer then Windsor ought to be prosecuted, a plea entered, an election as to trial by judge or jury made, and a finding as to guilt or innocence made on the evidence. If he is found guilty of rape, then he should face criminal penalties just like anyone else, most likely imprisonment. Stripping him of his royal titles is grossly inadequate.
Until very recently, I had similar comments to make about Jevon McSkimming. Although I maintain that everything I wrote about the presumption of innocence in relation to McSkimming in an earlier draft of this post was appropriate at the time, I have removed it in the light of the revelations this week as I do not think it appropriate to focus on that aspect of matters following the IPCA report.
The presumption of innocence is one of the great taonga (treasures) of Western culture for the simple reason that it is an important check on the arbitrary exercise of state power, but at present everyone from police officers to the monarch himself seem to be overlooking its importance. In my view Andrew Windsor’s titles ought to be reinstated, criminal proceedings against him commenced, and the titles removed again if he is found guilty (in addition to criminal penalties).
Oh, and to pre-empt the comments I can see coming: please spare me the tedious accusations that I’m justifying rape or child pornography: I’m not. I’m also not speaking out of any great love for the Windsors or for that matter McSkimming. (In fact, while a monarchist I have a fairly low view of the modern day Windsor family, and following this week’s events, an even lower view of McSkimming to put it mildly.) I’m speaking out of love of our legal system, and scepticism of trial by media.
US politics followers may have heard of Olivia Nuzzi.

She was a writer for New York Magazine and resigned after it was revealed she had a an affair with RFK Jr, while reporting on his presidential campaign.
She has just written a book about what happened, which seems to have upset Ryan Lizza, who was engaged to her at the time. He is also a journalist.
Ryan has just written a substack giving details of how he found out Nuzzi was having an affair with a presidential candidate she was reporting on. It is explosive, especially the final paragraph. Go read it, and you’ll see why.
All I’ll say is that I am a bit said that I was born in New Zealand, and hence can’t stand for President of the United States 🙂
Stuff reports:
The deaths of three children and their father at the scene of a Manawatū house fire are being investigated as a suspected triple murder-suicide, Stuff understands.
Dean Field died at a property on SH1 in Sanson that was consumed by fire on Saturday afternoon. It’s understood police believe he killed his three children – August, Hugo and Goldie, aged 7, 5 and 1 – before taking his own life.
It is hard to describe the rage I feel towards men like this. They are often in custody disputes and see their children as possessions. They get so full of hatred towards their ex, they would kill their own children rather than let the ex “win”. They are deeply evil.
You could include Tom Phillips in the above. He may not have killed his kids, but he treated them as possessions and effectively kidnapped them so that instead of growing up with friends, family and school, they lived in misery in the bush for three years.
As parents, our natural instincts are to do everything we can to protect our kids from harm. To have a parent kill or abuse their kids as a weapon against other adults is just evil.

This is a fascinating chart, from Putting Down The Vase. It looks at the combined favourability of the Labour and Conservative leaders. They note:
Previously, when one leader was in a rut there was usually someone else who voters liked. Major’s unpopularity in 1996 was offset by the popularity of Blair and Ashdown, Brown’s in 2009 was mitigated by the high ratings of Clegg and Cameron, etc. This is no longer the case. By way of example, in just 32 of the 476 Ipsos party leader survey questions since the start of 2011 has any leader scored a net approval rating above zero.
Of interest, this is not really the case in NZ. We don’t have the same time series of favourability ratings but in the 1990s it was pretty clear both Bolger and Clark were not popular.
For most of the period 1999 to 2017 the PM of the day tended to be popular, at least more so than the Opposition Leader was unpopular. And in 2017 both Bill English and Jacinda Ardern went into the election with +40 approval ratings. So if anything our leaders became more popular than the 1990s.
Fair to say that in the last three years, the PM and Opposition Leaders had ratings only slightly positive to slightly negative – so lower than the past. But still much much higher than in the UK where the latest Ipsos poll has:
What a choice! This is why Farage will probably become the next PM despite being at -19% himself. -19% is not great but a lot better than -66%!
While I am not a fan of the BSA appointing itself as chief censor of the Internet, I do like some of the research they have produced. The annual survey of offensive words is always interesting, and they have just done a survey about trust in media which is interesting. They find the following factors that makes a news provider trustworthy:
And the other way is the factors that make a news provider untrustworthy:
Now looking at those lists, it is no surprise why trust in media is so slow.
We see clickbait headlines all the time. Media are notoriously slow to correct errors. TV news always has reporters share their opinion, mixed into the story. And even I am often taken in by advertorials, as the disclaimer it is sponsored content is often hard to spot.