Rob Hosking writes:

The latest run of economic data has only served to reinforce the picture of continued expansion over the coming year.

Even the latest government accounts – particularly the monthly tax revenue data – point to strong underlying economic activity. …

Overall tax revenue is up 9.4% on the equivalent time period. Revenue from direct individual tax, in its various forms, is up 7.9%. Corporate tax – which is, admittedly, always volatile – is up a whopping 16.3%. GST is up 14% – much of which appears to reflect the tourism boom.

So surely time for tax cuts!

The latest year on year GDP growth was 3.6%. The long-term trend is in the region of 2.7-2.8%. The consensus forecast is for 3.5% for the year to March 2017,  3.3% for the following 12 months, and 2.9% for the next 12 months – all above the long-term trend.

Even the most pessimistic forecast for the next three years, UBS New Zealand’s Robin Clements, foresees growth averaging 3.4% for the year to March, 2.9% the following 12 months and 2.5% for the next 12 months.

Manufacturing and services data released in the last week points to continued strength in those sectors: the performance of manufacturing index (PMI) – an internationally comparable measurement – showed the sector averaging, over the past year,  a height only seen once since the survey began in New Zealand in 2002.

The manufactured manufacturing crisis lives on in our memories!

Stuff reports:

Destiny Church leader Brian Tamaki has revealed himself as a passionate Trump supporter and hopes New Zealand will have a leader “like him” one day. …

“President Donald Trump is the closest thing of seen to a “True Politician” and “Leader” for a very long time..can only pray to God NZ would get one like him one day.”

Brian no doubt sees himself in that role.

Stuff reports:

The revelation that Donald Trump berated Malcolm Turnbull, the leader of one of America’s closest allies, during a recent official phone call has been met with shock, disbelief and some embarrassed humour in the United States, fuelling concerns about the US president badly damaging important international relationships.

The Washington Post scoop revealing the tense conversation broke late in the day in the US and went on to dominate late night news television shows and social media, with many expressing disbelief that of all the countries the US could have offended in the first weeks of a new administration, it would be America’s genial allies across the Pacific.

This is how Trump treats arguably the US’s 2nd most loyal ally after the UK.

“I made a Top 100 Possible Trump Administration Foreign Crises list & I gotta admit ‘Rupturing US-Australia Relations’ was NOT on there,” senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut who sits on the same committee, also wrote.

If this is how he negotiates with Australia, imagine how bad relations with China are going to be!

Feeling rather sorry for the new Secretary of State.

“Who’d have thought it was possible to blow the US-Australia relationship?” wrote The New York Times writer Nick Kristof. “It’s childproof. But not Trump-proof.”

Is anything?

Audrey Young writes:

The pressure is on Little to improve his own performance and the party’s image to lift its support.

Making Jacinda Ardern deputy leader after she wins the Mt Albert byelection is an obvious way to help change the party’s image and to complement his own.

It is not a question of whether or not Ardern deserves it.

It is a matter of recognising that she could make a difference to the party’s results.

She has a big national profile and an even bigger one in Auckland and is the face of Labour to many younger voters.

I agree. I think Ardern replacing Annette King would be a boost for Labour.

Duncan Garner writes:

So Prime Minister Bill English has put the hotheads of Te Tii Marae in their rightful place and is giving Waitangi the swerve entirely on our national day.

He’s made the right call: someone had to deal to these self-appointed meatheads who harbour delusional thoughts of a better country under their misguided views of the world and the place of the Treaty of Waitangi. 

Their at-times violent approach is repugnant and has no place in our modern, increasingly confident country.

So I totally back him abandoning Waitangi in favour of attending a series of events, including a reggae concert, in Auckland.  His absence removes these activists’ platform to promote their petulance.

English will instead head to Orakei and Hoani Waititi Marae. It’s a much better choice anyway – a fusion of Maori, Pakeha, Asian and other cultures all enjoying food, performances and celebrating our children, families and country. That’s the way it should be in a mature nation. 

A true celebration.

I’m not sure these people will ever be happy or satisfied. It’s been a problem since 1974. Rob Muldoon always attended Waitangi. David Lange never did. Jim Bolger went until the insults flew. Helen Clark walked away after she was reduced to tears. John Key promised to always go until they banned him from speaking about the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

I’m not even sure if the Waitangi mob can articulate what their issues are. Protest in a democracy is good. I support it. But not violence and thuggery.

Yes the treaty was breached – and we’ve spent decades setting up processes, writing cheques and apologising. Have these “activists” not noticed that the Maori Party has been part of the Government for the past eight years?

They have a seat at the most powerful table in the country. They are included, not excluded.

It’s not this Government that should be vilified by Maori. If anything, the worst anti-Maori decisions came from the previous Labour administration. They blocked Maori from going to court to fight for legal rights to the foreshore and seabed and then there were those poorly judged and executed Tuhoe raids.

If the “activists” bothered to look, Bill English has privately worked to engage genuinely with Maori for more than a decade. But that won’t suit their narrative.

English has done more to understand Maori and their issues than any other finance minister or prime minister I can recall. He deserved better from Te Tii Marae. Ask any Maori at the coalface of change and policy and they know English cares deeply about how policy affects their families.

My children are Maori. Two of them speak the language fluently. I am proud of who they are and what they stand for. 

They stand as both proud and independent young Maori women and proud New Zealanders. That’s not the face of the future – that’s what’s happening now.

Well said Duncan.

Rasmussen reports:

Most voters approve of President Trump’s temporary halt to refugees and visitors from several Middle Eastern and African countries until the government can do a better job of keeping out individuals who are terrorist threats.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 57% of Likely U.S. Voters favor a temporary ban on refugees from Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen until the federal government approves its ability to screen out potential terrorists from coming here. Thirty-three percent (33%) are opposed, while 10% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Similarly, 56% favor a temporary block on visas prohibiting residents of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen from entering the United States until the government approves its ability to screen for likely terrorists. Thirty-two percent (32%) oppose this temporary ban, and 11% are undecided.

Even 34% of Democrats support the ban.

I still think it is grossly mistargeted. Read this article for example:

Kaveh Ranjbar, one of ICANN’s board members, had to miss his flight to Los Angeles on Monday because of the ban.

Ranjbar—who was born in Iran—lives in the Netherlands, where he is the Chief Information Officer of RIPE NCC, a nonprofit regional internet registry. (The company has offices in Amsterdam and Dubai.)

He’s the Chief Executive of the IP address registry for Europe (critical infrastructure for the Internet) yet he can’t enter the US because of where he was born.

It’s fine to have higher standards of admission for some countries, such as visas. But a total ban is silly, even temporarily. It’s basically a PR stunt that will just inconvenience thousands for no security value.

But as the poll shows, most Americans back the ban and I suspect the protests against it may lead to more support for Trump, not less.

The Dom Post reports:

Wellington Mayor Justin Lester is looking to trim his council’s spending by $8 million so his expensive election campaign promises can go ahead without a massive rates hike.

Lester announced on Wednesday that Wellington City Council would be undertaking a thorough review of council spending in order to find a minimum of $8m in ratepayer savings during the 2017-18 financial year.

He has tasked council chief executive Kevin Lavery with leading the review, and said part of that would be identifying spending that was now a lower priority in the short-term.

The $8m saving is needed if the council is to fund Lester’s key projects while also keeping Wellington’s annual rates rises below the 3.9 per cent average forecast over the next 10 years.

Very pleased to see the new Mayor wanting to cut lower priority spending and recognising that ratepayers can’t afford rates increases of the level we have had.

Justin Lester said in response to a Kiwiblog survey he would not vote for an average annual rates increase of more than 3%. It looks like he means to stick to that, which is good.

Bill English has announced a safer communities package:

• 1,125 more Police staff, a 10% increase to over 13,000
• 880 more sworn officers
• $503 million safer communities package
• A new 24/7 phone number for non-urgent Police calls
• New target for 98% of home burglaries to be attended within 48 hours
• 95% of NZers to be within 25 kms of a Police presence
• $115 million more for Corrections and Courts

I especially like the target for burglary attendance.

The Herald reports:

Willie Jackson has dumped the Maori Party and is set to announce he is standing for Labour instead.

The Maori broadcaster and former Alliance MP was considering standing for the Maori Party in the Tamaki Makaurau electorate, but sources said he had since been approached by Labour and now planned to stand on the list for them instead.

Harre, McCarten and now Jackson all back in the fold. The new future focused Labour Party of 2017 is the Alliance of the 1990s!

It is understood Jackson had met with Labour leader Andrew Little and believes he will secure a high list ranking to secure his return to Parliament.

Oh dear. I hope Willie has done his due diligence. Labour are required to rank the list so half of the likely caucus is female. That means it is unlikely there will be any men in the top 10 effective list positions.

The CTU have said:

“What is needed is a change in the calculation of the minimum wage. The minimum wage needs to be two-thirds of the average wage, this would make it much fairer (two-thirds of the average wage would be $19.88 per hour).

The idea of linking the minimum wage to the mean or median wage is not bad in itself. I’d welcome it, as would save the arbitrary decision making process every year. It would also shift the focus to increasing the median wage so everyone benefits.

But a level of two thirds of the average wage would be by far the highest in the world. The current minimum to mean ratios are:

1. New Zealand 0.52
2. France 0.50
3. Slovenia 0.49
4. Chile 0.46
5. Australia 0.44
6. Germany 0.43
7. Israel 0.43
8. UK 0.41
9. Canada 0.40
10. Ireland 0.37
11. US 0.25

The media never ever report our minimum wage is already the highest in the developed world.

At certain levels increases have only a small impact on employment. But the larger the ratio to the average wage is, the more jobs that would disappear. If this was not the case the minimum wage would be $50 an hour.

If you compare minimum wages to median wages, the CTU proposal would have the minimum wage at 85% of the median wage. This again would be the highest in the developed world. Other minimum to median ratios are:

• France 62%
• Israel 58%
• Australia 53%
• UK 49%
• Canada 44%
• Ireland 44%
• US 36%

What I would do is fix the minimum wage at its current level of 67% of the median wage. It would still be the highest in the developed world, but would mean that the focus would go on lifting wages across the board – and you do that via productivity gains not decrees.

Pete George blogs on how Central Otago businesses have been allowed to open on Easter Sunday and now also Wanaka businesses (Queenstown already could).

This shows the law working well – local Councils deciding what works for their area. It was nuts that Queestown could open but not Wanaka. It was also nuts that a tourist region such as Central Otago had to close down on Easter Sunday.

The Herald reports:

Five National Party backbenchers have been given promotions by Prime Minister Bill English.

Melissa Lee, Jian Yang, Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Jonathan Young and Scott Simpson have been given Parliamentary Private Secretary roles.

That means they will assist ministers, but are not part of the executive and do not get a pay rise.

Lee has been reappointed as Parliamentary Private Secretary to Ethnic Communities Minister Judith Collins and Yang will also take on this role.

Bakshi will assist the Police Minister Paula Bennett and Young will work with Economic Development Minister Simon Bridges.

Simpson will work with both Environment Minister Nick Smith and Conservation Minister Maggie Barry.

English said the private secretary positions were important roles which helped ensure strong links between ministers and the caucus.

As the story says there is no extra pay or even resources involved with being a PPS, but it does mean a Minister will work with them on appropriate issues.

Hey @IainLG. Here are, side-by-side: a) Unemployment rate 2006-2016. b) Net permanent & long-term migration. They do not correlate. pic.twitter.com/fOj7FZDj4c

— Keith Ng (@keith_ng) February 1, 2017

Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway blames immigration for the small increase in unemployment. Keith Ng schools him in this.

Amazing how Labour MPs claim to be so disgusted with Trump’s policies, yet they more and more resort to Trump like blaming of immigrants.

Donald Trump has announced Neil Gorsuch as his nominee for the Supreme Court. He is almost certain to be confirmed.

Gorsuch looks to be a very solid choice – like Scalia an originalist who thinks the role of judges is to interpret the law, not to make it.

Good background on him at Vox.

He is only 49 years old so could well do 30 to 35 years on the Supreme Court.

His appointment will not change the balance of the court but if another vacancy occurs, then the balance on the court could change significantly.

Stuff reports:

One of the world’s greatest sevens players has spoken of his sadness over the apparent demise of the Wellington tournament.

Two-time Commonwealth Games gold medallist and six-time World Sevens series champion Eric Rush said the Wellington event used to be the highlight of the international sevens calendar. …

“It was the best tournament on the circuit back then. Now, it’s probably one of the worst in terms of crowd numbers.

In the days when tickets sold out in seven minutes, the number of people wanting to attend was probably close to 100,000.

Rush, a 29-Test All Black, and New Zealand Sevens representative for 17 years, last attended the Wellington tournament two years ago. “She was empty, mate. It was sad, really sad.

“I think the [NRL Auckland] Nines killed a lot of it, plus the prices were less than $100 the first year, then it got up to $200 which would’ve put a few people off. Food prices and the fun police killed it too.”

That combination sounds right – prices too high, the fun police and competition.

He said other cities on the circuit had flourished, while crowd numbers in New Zealand had plummeted.

“It’s a real hard one because every other tournament sells out now, except for ours

This is the key statement. What happened to the Wellington Sevens was not inevitable. It was not just that people got bored. The local authorities and management killed it off.

The election date is Saturday 23 September 2017.

Bill English has said:

The Government’s intention is that the House will rise on Thursday, 17 August and Parliament will be dissolved on 22 August.

Writ day will follow on 23 August, and nominations will close at noon on 29 August. The last day for the return of the writ will be 12 October.

He has also said:

Mr English said his preference is to continue working with current partners –  ACT, United Future and the Māori Party.

“Together our parties have provided a stable and successful government at a time of great uncertainty in many parts of the world,” says Mr English.

Mr English ruled out working with the Labour-Greens grouping. 

“They are an increasingly far left, inward looking grouping, with no new ideas who don’t back New Zealanders to succeed.

“New Zealand First is an unlikely partner, however I am prepared to have discussions with them post-election depending on the makeup of Parliament,” says Mr English.

So no real change there.

I find it ironic that the parties of the left who are howling the loudest against Donald Trump, are the ones keenest to have NZ First in Government – the party whose policies are closest to Trump.

My view is that if NZ First holds the balance of power, National should go into opposition and let the chaos of a Labour-Green-NZ First Government stumble along for a year or two, and then mount a strong bid to get back into Government.

Stuff reports:

Ultrafast broadband is coming to more than another 200,000 homes, but doubts are already being expressed that the expansion of the network isn’t quite ambitious enough.  

Another 423,000 people will be able get ultrafast broadband (UFB) by the end of 2024 as a result of a long-awaited decision to expand the network.

Prime Minister Bill English said UFB would be extended to more than 151 additional towns, on top of the 33 cities that are already getting the service.

Maps of the towns that will now get fibre are here: North Island South Island

The expansion will mean UFB will be available to “up to 85 per cent” of the population, up from the 75 per cent coverage that is planned to be delivered by 2020.

Good to see. Fibre should be seen as core infrastructure along with roads, water, sewerage etc.

Stuff reports:

New Zealanders who hold dual nationality with a country on US President Donald Trump’s blacklist are not restricted to travel to the US if they hold a New Zealand passport and a US visa. 

The US Embassy in Wellington has confirmed the exemption, which was yesterday declared to apply to Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, also applies to New Zealand. 

I think it also applies to more countries than just these.

Dual nationals of Yemen, Libya, and Somalia and a Visa Waiver Program country  – such as New Zealand – may to travel under the waiver programme unless they have travelled to any of the seven countries on or after March 2011.

Any travel to those seven countries in the past five years, would mean those New Zealand citizens would also have to apply for a US visa.

I visited Iran around eight years ago. Will I end up needing a visa also at some stage!

UPDATE: The restrictions quoted above are in fact not new, but been in place since 2015. The ban on citizens from the seven countries is new, but the visa need for those who have visited them is an Obama policy.

The latest migration data is out and once again net migration from Australia is positive. After it hit parity I’ve been expecting it to start to reverse. But it has now been positive for more than a year and this may be the new normal – that more people leave Australia to come to NZ than vice-versa.

Such a situation is very rare. Migration between developed countries tends to be from smaller ones to larger ones.

Stuff reports:

President Donald Trump’s proposed border wall faces many obstacles. One of the tallest: building it without undocumented workers.

A labour shortage has left few hands to build houses and factories in the region, where wages have already been rising and projects delayed.

Now, the president’s plan for “immediate construction of a border wall” will force the government to find legal builders for a project that could employ thousands if not tens of thousands. About half of construction workers in Texas are undocumented, and nationwide 14 percent lack authorisation for employment in the US, according to the Workers Defense Project, an Austin group that advocates for undocumented labourers.

“If he is going to build a wall with legal workers in Texas, he is going to have a very hard time,” said Stan Marek, chief executive officer of Marek Brothers, a Houston commercial builder. “There is a real shortage of legal labour.”

I have a solution – automatic green card for any builder who spends at least a year working on the wall!

Stuff reports:

It’s now two-and-a-half minutes to “midnight”, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, which warned Thursday (Friday NZ time) that the end of humanity may be nigh.

The group behind the famed Doomsday Clock announced at a news conference that it was adjusting the countdown to the End of it All by moving the hands 30 seconds closer to midnight – the closest the clock has been to Doomsday since 1953, after the United States tested its first thermonuclear device, followed months later by the Soviet Union’s hydrogen bomb test.

In announcing that the Doomsday Clock was moving 30 seconds closer to the end of humanity, the group noted that in 2016, “the global security landscape darkened as the international community failed to come effectively to grips with humanity’s most pressing existential threats, nuclear weapons and climate change.”

From the 1950s to 1980s the Doomsday Clock was a useful and respected institution. The world did live in fear of global annihilation by way of nuclear war between the super powers.

The fall of the USSR saw this threat recede massively.  So at some stage those behind it seemed desperate to remain relevant so they added on climate change as a criteria.

So now we have the ridiculous situation where they claim humanity is closer to global annihiliation today than anytime since 1953.

Their doomsaying gets worse every year so I imagine in a few years they will announce we are 0.001 second off midnight!