Andrea Vance reports:

Wellington’s $400m sewage sludge treatment plant has seen its budget surge by “a ball park” 20%, adding around $80 million to the original estimate, The Post understands.

The blowout was revealed to Wellington City councillors in a public-excluded session last week. Further details are expected on August 14, but it’s not clear when and if those will be made public.

Another white elephant. It was actually costed at $200 million in 2021 In 2023 it was $300 million. In 2024 it was $400 million and now to looks to be close to $500 million. This is why rates increase by 20%, because they are unable to deliver a project on budget.

A Rotorua Council worker got $7,500 judgment for lost wages over what is basically process issues. But the substance of their behaviour makes me think they should have got nothing. Here’s what they did.

• Absent for nine days in his first 10 weeks on the job
• Stopped turning up for work on November 6 (three months in)
• Did not respond to e-mails or texts over two weeks
• On 21 November asked to attend a meeting over his absences
• He emailed his manager a medical certificate for an absence of 11 days from November 6 to December 18, but this covers 30 days. Did not respond to six queries over the certificate
• Another meeting proposed in November, which he did not respond to
• On 1 December told to attend a meeting on 5 December with termination possible
• He attends and provides an unsigned (ie worthless) medical certificate for 30 days absence
• Manager didn’t sack him, just set expectations for a return to work plan
• A further medical certificate saying he could not work until 9 January
• Did not turn up 9 January
• On 17 January asked to attend 23 January meeting. Did not turn up
• He is notified that day of his dismissal and sacked him for serious misconduct

Despite all this the ERA said it was not serious misconduct, just misconduct and he did not have enough warnings and sacking was disproportional. They found unjustified dismissal.

This is nuts.

If you don’t turn up to work and fail to respond to say three messages over say a week you should be goneburger, unless you are in a coma.

Stats NZ have published the latest life expectancy at birth data. Here’s the increase for each ethnic and gender group from 2006 to 2023.

1. Māori men +3.3
2. Māori women +2.9
3. Asian men +2.8
4. Men +2.1
5. European men +2.0
6. Pacific men +1.7
7. Pacific women +1.5
8. Women +1.3
9. European women +1.2
10. Asian women +1.2

This is what TPM presumably calls genocide!

A guest post by Owen Jennings:

Editors who invite reader’s contributions usually make it clear they reserve the right to not publish any particular letter and normally they refuse to give reasons or even acknowledge receipt of a letter.

The NZ Herald has that policy.  It’s a rather arrogant policy if letters sent in for publication are reasonable, not offensive or contrary to law.  A media outlet that claims to have influence and status might relish a healthy debate, a robust challenge or comments that reflect widely held opinions in the community.

I send in occasional letters and have a very low hit rate because many of the points made are about the lack of scientific and accurate evidence of catastrophic global warming.  I seek to be accurate, supported by evidence and reasoned.  The Herald clearly believes it can sell more advertising and copies by pushing the narrative that we are doomed if we keep increasing greenhouse gas emissions. 

 An example of such a letter that failed to get printed:   

“In a world where horrifying disasters seem more common and where they are beamed onto our devices in seconds it was comforting to learn that the first six months of 2025 were probably the safest in human history in terms of weather-related deaths.  As anxiety levels grow, especially among our young people, it is a relief to learn from two recognised authorities – the Aon Global Catastrophe Recap and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters’ Report that deaths due to natural disasters were well below the average of any first half of a year in this century.

At least 7,700 people were killed due to natural disasters during the first half of 2025, which is well below the 21st-century average of 37,250. The majority of the deaths (5,456) occurred as a result of the earthquake in Myanmar. That means that 2,200 people worldwide died in catastrophes related to extreme weather events during the first six months of the year.  Any such death is a tragedy but human ingenuity and less extreme weather have combined to produce a surprisingly assuring result”.

That letter was factual, was referenced, and one would think would be a mature way the Herald could help reduce the levels of anxiety that persist in the community especially among our young people.  Such anxiety levels are a huge, growing health problem.

Which raises the question as to what precisely is the Editor’s motive.  If the Editor was ever to be transparent and engage in a meaningful debate around the subject what on earth would be a rationale for refusing to help lower anxiety and fear when that fear is based on misinformation and is utterly groundless?

Does some level of community responsibility, when holding such a position of influence, not require a more balanced and mature position? 

We should be grateful for efforts of Kiwiblog, RCR, NZCPR, Bassett Hide Brash and others that allow a more balanced output.

An interesting chart from Federated Farmers showing their members’ confidence in their economic conditions.

So around 2010 confidence went positive. From 2012 to 2017 it fluctuated up and down. In 2018 it dropped to -34% and stayed low but then in 2021 it plummeted to -80% which is about as negative as you can imagine. This is what happens when you try and regulate a sector to death.

The change of government saw a massive boost in confidence. However it is now only +6% indicating that future conditions are still pretty uncertain. I suspect much of this is Trump’s 15% tariffs on NZ exports.

A dramatic graph. The rest of the world has kept coal consumption almost static for the last 30 years while China has tripled its consumption.

This comes from Doomberg who argues that the Chinese Communist Party financially supports climate activists to hinder American energy development, with an example being the Energy Foundation China which has disbursed over $500 million to more than 4,000 climate-related projects.

Jamie Beaton writes:

For too long, New Zealand’s education system has been content to drift in a sea of mediocrity. Everyone has known for a long time that NCEA is broken. Thirteen years ago, when I finished high school, it was widely recognised among my peers that the system was too easy, gameable, and a disservice to our students.

Not many people found an education company while a teenager, and within a decade have grown it to be worth around a billion dollars. I reckon he may know something about education globally.

The basic hallmarks of a good education system are: 1) standardisation, so grades are meaningful and comparable nationwide; 2) world-class benchmarking, to ensure if a Kiwi excels in our schools, they can compete globally; and 3) robust assessment.

The interesting thing with that list is NCEA appears to fail not just one pillar, but all three. It does not have standard grades, it is not benchmarked, and it does not have robust assessment.

Obviously, we need to foster curiosity, a love of learning, intellectual debate, and free inquiry. However, a system that breeds curiosity and one that has rigorous examinations aren’t contradictory. In fact, when students are deeply engaged in school, their ability to be curious in class is far higher.

Yes, it is not an either/or.

In my work with Crimson Education, I’ve witnessed countless brilliant New Zealand students struggle to gain admission to elite universities not because they lack talent, but because NCEA hasn’t equipped them with the academic rigour required. When you compare NCEA to the International Baccalaureate or Cambridge A Levels, the gap is stark and sobering. 

I have been surprised to see issues like testing and rigour become political footballs. They can’t be – and any team that wants to try to advocate for inward-facing mediocrity will always lose in the long run. The need for Kiwis to be able to win on the world stage with an education system that matches our ambition is critical. We cannot look inward and pat ourselves on the back as the world relentlessly marches forward without us.

I still get angry remembering the article where some school principals said it was unfair some students would not be able to get NCEA even though they couldn’t read, write or do simple maths. Mediocrity dressed up as equity is so wrong.

True equity means ensuring that if a student chooses the New Zealand curriculum, and they throw everything they’ve got at their education, there is no door in the world that isn’t open to them.

That’s the ambition we want.

Emeritus Professor of Population Health Ruth Bonita writes:

The Government’s decision to introduce a lower excise rate for heated tobacco products (HTPs) has been widely framed as “giving tax breaks to tobacco companies”. It’s a provocative line – and politically potent – but it doesn’t help us have an honest, evidence-informed discussion about how to reduce smoking harm, particularly for the most disadvantaged New Zealanders, or how to deal with conflicts of interest.

Let’s be clear: this isn’t a corporate subsidy, so long as the reduced tax is passed on with cheaper products. It’s an excise adjustment applied to a class of tobacco products that heat rather than burn tobacco. (Like vaping products, HTPs are marketed as smoke-free alternatives to cigarettes, but are not the same thing.)

Combustion is what makes smoking lethal. Cigarettes burn at over 800C, releasing thousands of toxic compounds. Heated tobacco products operate at much lower temperatures and don’t produce smoke – just an aerosol – with far fewer harmful constituents.

Making a reduced harm product cheaper than a greater harm product is a very sensible strategy, that has been proven to work with products such as vaping.

Unfortunately, it appears Philip Morris International hasn’t yet passed on the tax savings to the small number of HTP users in New Zealand – this is the real scandal.

If this is the case, then the trial will probably not result in any reduction in harm as smokers won’t transition. In that case it should not be extended. Decisions should be based on evidence, not hysteria.

Critics argue there’s insufficient evidence that HTPs help people quit, but the UK Office for Health Improvement and Disabilities, the UK Committee on Toxicity, and the US Food and Drug Administration all acknowledge HTPs reduce exposure to toxicants compared with cigarettes. That doesn’t make them harmless – but being less harmful than smoking is enough to warrant a differential tax.

I agree. Do not let perfect be the enemy of good.

The example of Japan is instructive. There, HTPs make up over 30 percent of tobacco sales. Though vaping is banned, cigarette consumption has plummeted by 40 percent in some markets. Surveys suggest many smokers switched completely to HTPs. Youth uptake has been minimal. No policy is perfect, but that’s a shift in the right direction.

Again, lets follow the evidence.

In a country that leads the world with its Smokefree 2025 goal, we should be asking how to accelerate the decline in smoking, not defending a one-size-fits-all excise regime that’s increasingly disconnected from the realities of risk, behaviour, and equity.

If HTPs can help some people switch, pricing them appropriately is not a scandal. It’s a good policy – provided it’s transparent, monitored, and grounded in evidence, and the tax savings are passed on to consumers.

Again, a refreshingly sensible approach.

Stuff reports:

Hamas leaders could be forced to leave Gaza after Middle Eastern states united behind a new plan to end the 22-month-long war.

Qatar and Turkey, two of the group’s main patrons, have thrown their weight behind a French and Saudi peace initiative that sharply increases pressure on Hamas to disarm, surrender power and accept exile.

Senior Gulf officials said the rare display of regional unity could isolate the movement to the point where it has no option but to comply.

“We genuinely believe we have a shot at this,” one diplomat said. “Hamas is in a corner. They don’t have much choice.”

Israel’s long and bloody war in Gaza has left Hamas so enfeebled that Arab officials believe there is now a “golden opportunity” to deliver a final blow.

I’ll believe it when It happens, but this would be a great outcome which would give Palestinians in Gaza a chance to live in peace. The war has been terrible, but a Hamas free future for Gaza would at least make the toll of war slightly better.

Saudi Arabia and France are driving an initiative aimed at the holy grail of diplomacy: a two-state peace deal creating a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

With Washington struggling to make headway, Paris and Riyadh co-hosted a conference at the United Nations in New York this week that forges a grand bargain between Europe and the Arab world.

Under a plan led by Jean-Noel Barrot, the French foreign minister, Arab states agreed to isolate Hamas in return for European recognition of Palestinian statehood before – rather than after – a final deal with Israel.

I support there being a Palestinian State, but it is somewhat performative to recognise a state without being able to say what are its borders you are recognising.

Chris Bishop announced:

Cabinet has agreed to a series of important legislative changes to enable the transition of New Zealand’s 3.5 million light vehicles to paying for our roading network through electronic road user charges, rather than petrol tax, says Transport Minister Chris Bishop.

“The abolition of petrol tax, and the move towards all vehicles (whether they be petrol, diesel, electric or hybrid) paying for roads based on distance and weight, is the biggest change to how we fund our roading network in 50 years,” Mr Bishop says.

Road user charges is a far fairer way of funding roads, than petrol tax (which is very simple though). Paying based on distance travelled and weight is fair.

However I would go one step further and ideally also have charges based on the type of road travelled. Travelling on Transmission Gully should cost you more than travelling on an unsealed gravel road. The more modern and expensive the road, the more you should pay for it.

“The current RUC system is outdated. It’s largely paper based, means people have to constantly monitor their odometers, and requires people to buy RUC in 1000 km chunks.

“We’re not going to shift millions of drivers from a simple system at the pump to queues at retailers. So instead of expanding a clunky government system, we will reform the rules to allow the market to deliver innovative, user-friendly services for drivers.

“A handful of E-RUC companies already do this for about half of our heavy vehicle fleet and there are several companies, both domestic and international, with innovative technology that could make complying with RUC cheaper and easier.”

My preferred system is to have it like my power. Automatic readings every month, and a direct debit.

The usual suspects have got upset over the “opening” of an FBI office in Wellington. I guess they think law enforcement agencies shouldn’t communicate.

But what is really funny is that we have actually had an FBI office in Wellington for well over a decade. The only change is the FBI has upgraded its internal designation from a sub-office to an office. Still has the same capability, and the same FBI staff member there. It just means the staffer doesn’t have to go through Australia anymore.

So all this fuss is basically over the existing office being called an office instead of a sub-office.

Audrey Young chatted to Mark Mitchell, and he revealed his various health challenges from past injuries.

• Lung damage from the 1990s when he woke a sleeping mother and son to get them out of a house an arsonist had set fire to.
• A hammering to his face from four Mongrel Mob members he was following in relation to a gang rape. Maxillofacial surgery rebuilt the eye socket and released the nerve that had been trapped with broken bone.
• Stabbed by a young man with a Samurai sword, slicing through his elbow. Has never had a pain-free day since because it’s done all the nerves. Has had multiple operations to try and relieve the chronic pain
• Survived three explosions in vehicles caused by IEDs. In one he got a whole lot of shrapnel up into his lower back and backside causing nerve damage in his right leg.

It is no surprise that Mark doesn’t support the government funding the Mongrel Mob, as the last Government did!

It’s also a useful reminder of what harm can get caused to first responders.

– 1. The proposed changes to our national qualifications system:

• A semi-vacuum at Year 11.
• 4 out of 5 subjects to “pass” Year 12.
• 4 out of 5 subjects to pass Year 13. No clear guidance on University Entrance. The Minister, herself, predicting outcome declines in the early years of the changes.Consultation closing on the proposed NZ English Curriculum that, to me, appears highly restrictive and significantly boring – unless you are already over 60yo. https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2025/07/two_major_problems_with_the_proposed_nz_english_curriculum.html

– Marginal improvements in the 2024 leavers data for Lever 2 NCEA, Level 3 NCEA and UE.

– A decline in the NCEA Level 1 pass rates for leavers in 2024. This will set the trend for the next two years. 16% of all students who left the NZ education system in 2024 did not have Level 1 NCEA. For Maori that stat was 28%. To repeat 28% of Maori students who left the NZ education system last year (each of whom would have had at least 3,200 funded classroom hours) had no qualification at all.

– We are starting to discuss “norm-referenced” assessments again. This ignores much of the progress in neuroscience in the last 25 years. A teacher’s job is to significantly improve ALL students – like an athletics coach, dance teacher, music teacher, etc. Heading back to a School Certificate, 50% pass-rate, paradigm is like changing the length of the mile every time an athlete runs under 4 minutes.

– For Erica Stanford to be a good and effective Minister of Education – not just a populist – she has one job. She needs to imagine the outcomes of our school qualifications system as 100 houses and to ensure that – at each level – all are fit for purpose and excellent to live in. At present 16 houses of 100 at Level 1 are a mess. For Maori it is 28 out of 100. All of her changes so far do little except reinforce the position of the students who would achieve under any system. She appears to have been captured by a self-interested elite.

A truly effective society looks after those who need it the most. Stanford is significantly failing by that measure – and does not appear to have intent or strategy to change that trajecotory. If self-interest and the economy is important for many onlookers – what are the ongoing effects of 28% of Maori students leaving school with no qualifications at all.

[email protected]

Radio NZ reports:

The Green Party is demanding Māori names be reinstated to electorates in the capital.

It has launched a petition after the Rongotai electorate became Wellington Bays in boundary changes announced last week.

The Representation Commission confirmed final boundary adjustmentsahead of next year’s election.

“Rongotai means ‘sound of the sea,’ it has been the te reo name of our electorate for almost three decades and has been taken away with next to no consultation,” MP Julie Anne Genter said.

Rather than concentrating on issues affecting NZers such as the cost of living, they are doing a petition that is pointless. The reason it is pointless is because the Representation Commission can’t change a decision, once final boundaries are released. The final report is, final. It’s the law.

As for the substance of the decision, Wellington Bays is a pretty uninspiring name. But it is a technically correct name – the electorate has 19 bays in it. Rongotai is the name of a suburb in the electorate which has 40 people living in it, out of over 50,000 in the electorate.”

This is yet another attack on te reo, we have seen it with road signs, passports and now the name of an electorate,” Paul said.

The Representation Commission is primarily made up of public servants and is chaired by a judge. They are independent of government. And the hysteria is misplaced. They have also changed some names from English to te reo. For example:

• New Lynn becomes Waitākere (water falling from the rock)
• Bay of Plenty becomes Mt Maunganui (large mountain)

At Patreon (paywalled) I look at the four criteria under international law you need to recognise a state, and I wonder how the Government can or will answer questions about the criteria when it recognises Palestine.

Specifically what is the territory of the state they are recognising, and whom is the Government of the state they are recognising.

I have lots of details of opinion polls of Palestinians in Gaza. the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The East Jerusalem polls especially may surprise many.

Stuff reports:

NZ’s top security officials were all set to renew the terrorist designation of America’s “violently extreme right-wing populist” group the Proud Boys. But the chair changed his mind at the last minute. Explainer Editor Lloyd Burr delves through 119 pages of official documents. …

A lot of that advice – emails, discussion documents and even a draft announcement – were released on Wednesday, totalling 119 documents.

They show a whole lot of preparation and work to renew the APB terrorist designation – then an 11th hour decision by National Security Board (NSB) chair and Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (DPMC) CEO Ben King not to.

But on June 17, the day before the deadline, King changed his mind, writing to his DPMC colleagues: “I wanted to have one last look at the assessments before I finally recommended a course of action to the Prime Minister, ahead of the deadline for renewal/redesignation.

“That’s because designating any entity as a terrorist entity is a significant step, and it’s important we maintain the integrity of the system.

“My review of the case for the Proud Boys, however, left me with questions about whether the evidence was sufficient to meet the test. The case, in my view, rests on judgements around intent, and what might have happened if the leadership were not incarcerated.”

The reference to incarceration is because APB leader Henry Enrique Tarrio had been sentenced to 22 years in prison over the Capitol riots. Other APB members had been imprisoned too. But President Donald Trump had pardoned them all earlier in the year.

I don’t know why Ben King changed his mind. Disappointingly he doesn’t consult bloggers on national security terrorist designations. But I’m happy to take an educated guess.

Generally speaking terrorist groups tend to be seen as such, by the government of the country they are based in. The UK Government saw the IRA as a terrorist group, the German Government saw the Red Army faction as a terrorist group etc. The exception tends to be where the government itself is a sponsor of terrorism, such as Iran.

The Trump Administration doesn’t see the Proud Boys as a terrorist group. To the contrary, Trump has pardoned many of them. So if New Zealand had renewed their designation as a terrorist group, it would be potentially seen as very insulting by the US President, if he was told about it.

King’s letter continues to outline his U-turn rationale: “I was not convinced, on a final read, that the Statement of Case met the test required by the Act.

“I want to be clear that Proud Boys is a distasteful, disruptive and corrosive organisation, and that its tactics and methods are well beyond the pale. But I think we require further work and reflection on the evidence base, which will feed into advice for the Prime Minister’s consideration.

“I have recommended to the Prime Minister that he should not proceed with redesignating the Proud Boys.”

King is correct that the Proud Boys are corrosive. But that by itself doesn’t mean they are a terrorist group. Of interest is the fact that NZ was one of only two countries (Canada also) that ever designated them as such.

Ardern, Hipkins, Robertson and Verrall should be known in future as the Covid cowards. They made decisions that had devastating effects on the lives of many New Zealanders and they are refusing to answer questions in public from the Royal Commission on it.

Let us recall what some of their actions were:

1. Stopped New Zealanders from returning home, even to see dying loved ones
2. Made it illegal to leave your home, except for authorised activities or persons
3. Closed the schools
4. Banned unvaccinated people from bars, cafes and restaurants
5. Sacked unvaccinated NZers from multiple industries
6. Spent $66 billion, leading to huge inflation
7. Multiple lockdowns

They did all the above, on the grounds it was necessary on the evidence. They said they were the podium of truth, yet they refuse to front up and answer questions about the evidence their decisions were made on.

They truly are cowards.

We see a very different approach in the UK. Their Royal Commission has heard evidence in public from:

• Former Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson
• Former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
• Former Northern Ireland First Ministers Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill
• Former Chancellor George Osborne
• Former Health Secretaries Jeremy Hunt and Matt Hancock

The difference I guess is the UK politicians are not cowards.

The Herald reports:

Days before the United States-led invasion of Iraq, five protesters broke into a British military base, intent on disabling aircraft that were set to be deployed in bombing missions.

It was March 2003, and the group said it wanted to prevent war crimes and protect civilians. 

Among those who later defended them in court was a 43-year-old human rights lawyer.

His name was Keir Starmer.

In a strange echo, 22 years later, Starmer would face a similar case, but now as Prime Minister of Britain.

In June, activists from a group called Palestine Action broke into a Royal Air Force base, sprayed red paint into aircraft engines and damaged the planes with crowbars. …

But a very different result ensued. 

The protesters in 2003 were prosecuted under criminal laws against property damage.

In June, Starmer’s Government announced that Palestine Action would be added to its list of banned terrorist organisations, alongside groups including al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and Atomwaffen Division, a neo-Nazi group.

It was the first time in modern British history, according to the Government’s adviser on counterterrorism laws, that a protest group that does not call for violence against people had been proscribed as a terrorist organisation.

Palestine Action sound like a bunch of idiots, which we have many of in NZ. They should be prosecuted for any damage they caused, but proscribing them as a terrorist organisation seems absurd.

Stuff reports:

A contender for Auckland’s mayoralty is promising to release a key policy this week after an embarrassing campaign blunder over the weekend.

On Friday, a press release sent out by Kerrin Leoni’s campaign team stated the Auckland councillor, and main contender to incumbent mayor Wayne Brown, would release her fiscal policy plan at the Avondale Markets that weekend.

“Kerrin Leoni will release her fiscal policies at the Avondale Markets on Sunday at 10am,” it said.

But when the day came, she was nowhere to be seen at the West Auckland market, and there was no mention of it elsewhere.

This doesn’t really scream competence, when you forget to turn up to your own policy launch!

Auckland Council is a $4 billion a year operation. Auckland needs a competent Mayor.