Dr Phil Bagshaw writes:

It is claimed by the Minister of Health that we are doing more non-urgent operations each year. This is not a new achievement; it has been the case since records have been kept. 

This is not true. The number of elective discharges dropped in 2003 and 2006 compared to the year before. In 2003 (year to June) the drop was 1,57 and in 2006 it was 397.

What has not been reported, however, is that the rate of increase has been going down in most recent years and has not kept up with population changes.

This is also not true for the second part. The increase has been greater than population growth every year. In 2014/15 there was an increase of 5,171 discharges. This was a 3.2% increase. Population increased 1.9% so the number per 100 capita increased 1.3% from 3.59 to 3.64.

In this regard, we are therefore playing catch-up rugby and, in fact, are not catching up at all but are falling further behind.

Let’s compare the increases from 2002 to 2009 and 2009 to 2015.

• 11,666 extra discharges vs 37,290 extra
• An increase of 9.9% over seven years vs 28.7% over six years
• Rate per 100 population increased 0.8% from 2002 to 2009 and 20.5% from 2009 to 2015

The Herald reports:

The dismissal of Brazil’s President has upset relations with leftist Latin American governments as Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia recalled their ambassadors to protest what they call a “coup”.

The Brazilian Senate voted 61-20 to convict the country’s first female President, Dilma Rousseff, of illegally using money from state banks to bankroll public spending.

The vote ended 13 years of progressive Workers Party rule and brought to power her conservative former Vice-President, Michel Temer.

Rousseff’s opponents hailed the removal of the former leftist guerrilla as paving the way for a change of fortunes for Brazil. But Temer, who has run Brazil since her suspension in May, inherits a bitterly divided nation with voters in no mood for the austerity measures needed to heal public finances.

It is unclear Temer will do any better. At least he won’t lie about the finances as Rousseff did.

Austerity is never popular. No-one likes having to live within their means. Of course people would like to spend money they don’t have. But in the real world spending more money than you have, has consequences.

Stuff reports:

The Ministry of Education let down Karori and Wellington residents by granting a teachers’ college in the Wellington suburb of Karori to Victoria University, Wellington Central MP Grant Robertson says. 

The university is to dispose of the Karori campus, which was transferred to it for $10 in 2014.

The site, potentially worth more than $20 million, was the university’s teacher training college, but education staff and students moved  to Victoria’s main campus in Kelburn in February. 

One can argue that any transfer should have been conditional on it being used for educational purposes.

Steve Stuart, deputy secretary sector for enablement and support at the ministry, acknowledged earlier community interest in a secondary school being developed on the site.

“Now that Victoria University has initiated the process to make the land available we will re-check and update our population projections so that we can be clear about the Ministry’s long-term view of overall schooling needs in Karori,” he said.

Robertson has been advocating the land be set aside for a future secondary school. I thought there wouldn’t be the population in Karori to support one, but Robertson may be right.

At the last census there were 1,086 13 to 17 year olds living in Karori. That would seem to be enough to make a secondary school viable. Of course not everyone in Karori would want to attend a local secondary school, but to counter that you might get some people wanting to attend from outside Karori such as Wilton.

Stuff reports:

A lucrative black market for cigarettes is fuelling an increase in armed robberies, with criminals targeting dairies and stealing tobacco products to order.

Some dairy owners are toying with the idea of pulling cigarettes from their shelves, but the decision is not an easy one with tobacco products making up a large amount of their business.

In the last seven weeks, robbers have targeted at least 17 Christchurch businesses, including dairies, pubs and bakeries. That compares to 12 in the first five months of the year. …

Detective Senior Sergeant Mike Ford said he believed many of the robbers were stealing to order rather than for personal use.

“There appears to be a strong black market for tobacco. It is a very valuable commodity. They [the robbers] are taking as much as they can.”

I’m a supporter of increasing excise tax on tobacco to reduce the numbers who smoke (so long as other taxes reduce, so not an overall revenue gain). But this story is a useful reminder that every police has unintended consequences, and the higher the tax goes, the more lucrative the black market becomes. Hence total prohibition would also lead to a larger black market controlled by criminals.

Stuff reports:

New Zealand’s aviation watchdog has criticised Air New Zealand for taking the focus away from the safety in one of its safety videos – but still allowed it to be used.

In an email obtained by One News the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) criticised the airline for including “extraneous material” in its Surfing Safari safety ad.

It suggests this is not the first time the CAA has taken Air New Zealand to task.

“As we have commented previously, the video diverges materially from the ‘safety message’ at times, and whilst I appreciate the need to engage the viewers, the extraneous material detracts from the scope and direction of the safety message,” the email reads.

The CAA needs to lighten up. Because the Air NZ safety videos are entertaining, they get probably 90% watching rates on board where the old safety ones would get barely one in ten watching them after the first time.

However I have to say that their latest video has missed the mark. It is simply just not funny or entertaining despite the comic talent.

I fly often and am usually seated on the front row (by preference). This means I get to have great chats with Air NZ cabin crew. Pretty much every single crew member has admitted, after probing, that they hate the current video. Forcing them to watch it scores of times is a sort of torture.

They all say they loved the Men in Black video and also The Hobbit one. I agree on those. I liked the surfing one that CAA was whining about. But I really can’t stand this current one. I hope they replace it as soon as possible.

Do you support four laning (through additional tunnels) the Mt Vic and Terrace tunnels at an estimated cost of $250 million?

• Nick Leggett: Absolutely – Terrace Tunnel to airport all needs upgrades. It’s one route and probably several projects.
• Nicola Young: Yes
• Justin Lester: I support the duplicate tunnels at Mt Victoria and The Terrace. These projects will be paid for by central government because they are part of the state highway network.
• Helene Ritchie: N.A. Central Government funds and project, at least 10-15 years away ( 3-4 Councils!) Central Government has earmarked the funds already as part of the RONS project
• Andy Foster: Mt Vic likely yes, Terrace probably no (all that motorway congestion then transferred to city streets). These will be properly analysed and modelled through the Let’s Get Wellington moving process currently well underway. Decisions by the end of 2017 on a multi modal package including urban design projects.
• Jo Coughlan: Yes its a key priority to double tunnel the Mt Victoria and Terrace Tunnels and four Lanes to the Planes. I will utilise my relationships across the political spectrum to work with whoever is in Government to ensure this happens.

Stuff reports:

Landcorp has recorded a net profit after tax of $11.5 million, largely thanks to a $7.4m profit on land sales.

The state-owned enterprise, which Finance Minister Bill English earlier this year described as a “poor investment” although the Government had no intention to sell it off, reported a net operating loss of $9.4m on revenue of $209m for the year ended June 30, 2016.

For the second year in a row it will not pay a dividend to the Government.

Taxpayers should not be owners of a commercial business that buys and sells land and runs dairy farms. There is no public good reason to do so.

Stuff reports:

Plans for a revamp of Shelly Bay could be given a new lease of life after a developer reached a deal with the Wellington City Council.

Ian Cassels, director of The Wellington Company, has been working on a plan for Shelly Bay that has been likened to San Francisco’s seaside town of Sausalito.

The rundown wharf and derelict air force and naval buildings on the Miramar Peninsula  would be replaced with a new seaside community.

It is understood Cassels is in the process of buying the council’s land at Shelly Bay, which will allow him to proceed with his plans.

While Cassels would only confirm he was in negotiations, council chief city planner David Chick confirmed an agreement had been reached for Cassels to buy the council land.

The council was working through what a partnership model might look like, he said.

“The idea is for a partnership model, where the council land, iwi land and private land come together to create a better outcome,” Chick said.

“I think that we can have a housing outcome and rich layers of different experiences that people will come to see.

Great to see progress. The views from Shelly Bay are stunning and would be an amazing place to live. Also will be very popular place to visit if they get more cafes there.

The Herald reports:

A national requirement for all water bodies to be swimmable all of the time is “impractical”, Environment Minister Dr Nick Smith says.

But environmental groups have accused the Government of dodging tougher limits to address the country’s freshwater woes.

In a lecture on freshwater management at Lincoln University last night, Smith said the Government was committed to improving the quality and swimmability of New Zealand’s lakes and rivers, but was “cautious of regulatory requirements that are unworkable”.

Most of the country’s rivers breached the 540 E. coli count required for swimming during heavy rainfall, he said, and there were water bodies home to many birds whose E. coli made it impossible to meet the swimming standard without a massive bird cull.

“There are also rivers associated with geothermal activity that makes water quality unsuitable for swimming,” he told the gathering.

“We also need to be open about the cost of our regulatory requirements on communities and the fact that many water bodies have long hydrological cycles that mean it is a long time before we see improvement.”

Standards under the Government’s National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management, set in 2014, includes a requirement for regional councils to manage freshwater bodies so people’s health is safeguarded, and carries a bottom line that applies to “wading” and boating.

The demand that every single waterway in NZ must be swim-able comes across to me as a slogan, not a policy.

Good policy considers costs and benefits and practicality.

Here’s what I would like to know, rather than just keep hearing a slogan.

• Have NZ waterways got more or less clean in the last eight years? The direction is more important than the speed
• If they have improved, by how much.
• What percentage of NZ waterways are currently swim-able and how does this compare to other countries such as UK, Australia, Canada and US?
• On current policy settings what proportion of waterways are likely to be deemed swim-able in ten years time?
• What would be the cost, if even practical, to have every waterway swim-able within x years?

I suspect the Greens can’t answer any of these questions except maybe the first one. If they can, then please share the info so we can decide whether the slogan is good policy.

Stuff reports:

Surrounded by smoke and flames, the sound of gunshots echoing around him, the young man crouched in the creek for hours, listening to the men in his family die.

On the other side of the mountain, another survivor peered through binoculars as the handcuffed men of neighbouring villages were shot and then buried by a waiting bulldozer. For six days he watched as the extremists filled one grave after another with his friends and relatives.

Between them, the two scenes of horror on Sinjar mountain contain six burial sites and the bodies of more than 100 people, just a small fraction of the mass graves Islamic State extremists have scattered across Iraq and Syria.

The Associated Press has documented and mapped 72 of the mass graves, the most comprehensive survey so far, with many more expected to be uncovered as the Islamic State group’s territory shrinks.

In Syria, AP has obtained locations for 17 mass graves, including one with the bodies of hundreds of members of a single tribe all but exterminated when Isis extremists took over their region.

Many of those killed were Yazidis. They were slaughtered just because of their religion. Those not slaughtered are raped or enslaved.

On a smaller scale you can compare ISIL to the Nazis. Both had doctrines of superiority and both tried to wipe out entire populations based on their religion.

Hopefully one day the senior leadership of ISIL will face trial for their crimes.

I believe the Government (central and local) needs to do more to reduce house price inflation.

But for context it is worth pointing out that large increases in house prices is not a recent phenomena and the annual increases are smaller than in the past. Again this is not to say the increases are satisfactory – they are not. But the level of house prices has been increased for many years due primarily to a shortage of land.

The Washington Post reports:

For a small group of undecided voters here, the presidential choices this year are bleak: Hillary Clinton is a “liar” with a lifetime of political skullduggery and a ruthless agenda for power, while Donald Trump is your “drunk uncle” who can’t be trusted to listen even to the good advice he’s paying for.

Describing the election as a cesspool, 12 swing voters participating in a focus group Thursday in this battleground state were deeply negative about both candidates, starkly describing their choice this year as one between a candidate they loathe (Clinton) and one they fear (Trump).

What a choice!

Hamish Rutherford at Stuff reports:

Sir Ngatata Love has been found guilty of obtaining property by deception following a fraud trial.

Justice Graham Lang read the decision in the High Court in Wellington on Thursday.

Love was charged following a serious fraud office investigation in 2013, with the trial beginning on August 3.

The charges related to a payment made by property developer Redwood to a company controlled by Love’s partner, Lorraine Skiffington.

Love faced alternative charges of obtaining property by deception, or of accepting a secret commission. The charge of obtaining property by deception is the more serious of the two charges.

Love was accused of showing favour to Redwood by granting it a lease to develop land 1-15 Pipitea St, in return for the developer awarding Skiffington’s company a lucrative consultancy contract.

The money was allegedly used to pay down the mortgage on a beachfront home on Moana Rd in Plimmerton.

Lang said that in updating his fellow trustees on progress of a major property development, Love failed to inform them of a key aspect, the payments to Skiffington. While Love’s lawyer, Colin Carruthers QC, claimed Love was unaware of the nature of the transactions around him.

Love created an environment in which the developers believed he was acting on behalf of, and in the knowledge of, the wider Tenths Trust.

However Lang said he was satisfied Love was aware of the dealings and had made a false statement to his trustees by “recording in a deficient nature” Redwood’s offer.

Kudos to Fairfax for the reporting of not only the trial, but also breaking the story of the secret payments in 2013.

Love effectively stole money from his Iwi. Rather than get the best price possible for land the Iwi owned, he did deals with companies in exchange for huge facilitation fees to his partner.

He kept these arrangements hidden from his Iwi.

Love has had a distinguished record of service over the years. But at some point he got greedy and ripped off the very people he was meant to represent and serve.

Do you think WCC should make it a condition for any business tendering for a contract with WCC to pay their staff at least $20 an hour?

• Nick Leggett: Yes
• Nicola Young: No. It’s not for WCC to dictate how businesses should operate.
• Justin Lester: I support frontline council services being paid a wage that means they can support their families and live. I do the same for my own employees and I find it improves productivity, reduces turnover and enhances customer service. I value staff and Welligtonians’ livelihoods.
• Helene Ritchie: Yes-As mayor, I will lead an affordable City, where people can afford to live
• Andy Foster: No – that means ratepayers having to deliberately pay more than they have to. Logically if that was the case we shouldn’t buy anything made overseas where people aren’t paid even close to that amount.
• Jo Coughlan: No – a person’s income is not just their wage but the tax credits and other support from Central Government which, depending on circumstance, may top up incomes lower than $20 per hour.

So three candidates in favour and three against.

The Press editorial:

What is the end game for Lincoln University? The Press has reported that some drastic measures are being seriously considered by the cash-strapped university. Lincoln may sell some of its thousands of hectares of farmland, drop some courses and seek private investment following earlier, highly unpopular attempts to balance the books. 

Lincoln was restructured in 2013 and 2014 when more than 100 jobs were axed. Maybe the old adage that no business ever cut its way to growth proved true because, two years later, Lincoln still has to dig itself out of a $6 million financial hole. Like other tertiary institutions, Lincoln’s student numbers were hit hard by the Canterbury earthquakes but it does not have the size or financial resilience to endure the shocks forever. 

Measures much more drastic than selling assets or courting private enterprise are being considered. A report outlining possible futures was delivered to Lincoln last month and vice-chancellor Professor Robin Pollard has said options include closure or merger. Closure would be “disastrous”, Pollard told The Press. 

But a merger? That has promise. The most natural partner is the University of Canterbury. Would it make sense to run Lincoln as a satellite campus of Canterbury? As in any merger, there are duplications to consider. A layer of management would be removed and other infrastructure costs would be saved. In 2014, there were approximately 2300 full-time equivalent students on the Lincoln campus. This would make it a smaller college than Canterbury’s colleges of Arts, Business and Law, Engineering and Science were in 2015. 

A merger with Canterbury would make sense for historical as well as geographic reasons. Lincoln started as a school of agriculture and, from 1961 to 1990, it was a constituent college of the University of Canterbury, known as Lincoln College. It achieved its independent university status only 26 years ago, within a period of intense, growing competition between tertiary providers. An institution with “university” in its name was immediately more attractive to students shopping around in education’s free market.

I was at Otago University when Lincoln was still a College and about to become a University.

I think the reality is that under 3,000 students is not big enough to be a stand alone university, even a specialist one. The economies of scale are significant.

By a comparison, here are the EFTS counts for the eight NZ universities:

1. Auckland 33,500
2. AUT 19,800
3. Massey 18,700
4. Otagi 18,400
5. VUW 17,000
6. Canterbury 11,900
7. Waikato 10,000
8. Lincoln 2,900

NewstalkZB reports:

Opponents of genetic engineering believe Auckland Council’s decision to become officially GE-free will be good for business.

Auckland councillors have agreed to ban the general release of genetically modified organisms under the Unitary Plan, a 30-year combined regional and district plan.

The decision comes a year after Hastings District Council agreed to ban the outdoor use of genetically modified organisms in its district plan.

Soil and Health Association chairwoman Marion Thomson said all councils should be taking a long-term precautionary approach to any untested GM technologies.

Luddites win again.

GM technologies have been in use for over 30 years without a single adverse incident. There are a group of people who have a near-religious aversion to “interfering” with nature and they use the precautionary principle as a ruse. The truth is they will never ever support GM regardless of the benefits or science.

We had a Royal Commission into GM and it weighed up the evidence and said it should be allowed under strict conditions. Local authorities should not be able to over-ride that decision and impose the views of Councillors on every farmer in the district.

Murray McCully announced:

Maurice Williamson will be appointed as Consul-General in Los Angeles. He has been MP for Pakuranga since 1987 and has held several Ministerial portfolios, including Science and Technology and Information Technology.

“Mr Williamson will be responsible for engagement with US investors and innovators to ensure New Zealand policies and exporters remain at the leading edge of change,” Mr McCully says.

“California and other western states of America are major export markets for New Zealand and important investment partners, particularly in added-value food and beverage and technology.  The United States is New Zealand’s largest market for intellectual property-based exports, and those exports will continue to grow strongly.”

Maurice is a good fit for LA with Silicon Valley and I am sure will do well there.

Unless his resignation is delayed, I presume this means a by-election in Pakuranga.

Pakuranga is very safe with a 12,867 majority. And on the party vote Labour got just 16% so you feel a bit sorry for whomever their candidate will be.

UPDATE: I am told no byelection is planned so presume appointment will commence next year then.

Radio NZ report:

The bill legalising same-sex marriage passed its final reading in Parliament in April, 2013, and came into effect on 19 August, 2013.

It said people can marry, regardless of their sex, sexual orientation or gender identity.

Statistic New Zealand figures show 2118 same-sex couples have married since the legislation changed.

So 4,000 people who wanted to be married now are. Great. More people are marrying to pledge their commitment to their loved ones.

And the downside has been …. well zero.

Almost 970 of those couples have travelled from abroad to marry here.

Extra tourism spending also.

Stats NZ reports:

In the June 2016 quarter, around 1 in 5 employees belonged to a union

In a 2012 survey they had union membership at 27.6%, so it has dropped from 27.6% to 20% in just four years.

People under 30 made up 29.1 percent of all employees and 15.4 percent of union members.

And the trend will continue as younger workers don’t join up.

The majority of union members today are public sector workers. With lower incomes jobs getting priced out of the market or disrupted by technology the number of private sector union members will keep declining.

Chorus sent me a spreadsheet of the average connection speeds and monthly data usage by area. Quite interesting

Fastest average connection speeds (Mbps)

1. Dunedin 151
2. North Shore 36
3. Rotorua 34
4. Auckland 33
5. Porirua 32
6. Manukau 31
7. Palm Nth 31
8. Papakura 30
9. Waitakere 29
10. Lower Hutt 29
11. Nelson 29

Slowest average connection speeds (Mbps)

1. Waimate 11
2. Otorohanga 11
3. Central Hawke’s Bay 12
4. Waitomo 12
5. Wairoa 12
6. Hauraki 13
7. Tararua 13
8. South Taranaki 13
9. Opotiki 13
10. Western BoP 13
11. Waikato 13

Highest Average Monthly Data Usage (GB)

1. Manukau 155
2. Waitakere 140
3. North Shore 139
4. Papakura 136
5. Auckland 132
6. Porirua 126
7. Palmerston North 119
8. Rotorua 114
9. Wellington 114
10. Dunedin 109
11. Lower Hutt 109

Smallest Average Monthly Data Usage (GB)

1. Thames-Coromandel 49
2. Kaikoura 49
3. Waimate 50
4. Buller 52
5. Central Otago 55
6. Kaipara 56
7. Hurunui 57
8. Southland 57
9. Central HB 58
10. Clutha 58

Biggest increase in speed (Jan 15 to Jun 16)

1. Dunedin 255%
2. Porirua 88%
3. North Shore 88%
4. Rotorua 88%
5. Auckland 82%

Biggest increase in data used (Jan 15 to Jun 16)

1. Marlborough 169%
2. Masterton 144%
3. Waitaki 137%
4. Dunedin 130%
5. Rotorua 129%

The huge increases in data used reflects that many plans have now ended data caps.

Radio NZ report:

Hundreds of people have lodged opposition to the proposed extension of Wellington airport’s runway.

A summary of 776 submissions made on the the airport’s application for a resource consent shows more than two-thirds are against.

I’m surprised so many were against. But to some degree this is not what is important. Submissions are for reading, not counting. It is the quality of the arguments that matters.

Airlines, residents’ associations and hundreds of individuals do not want a bar of the extension.

Recreational fishing enthusiasts said they were not consulted, and cray catchers said the exclusion zone around the construction site was excessive.

“There are twenty or more commercial pots regularly set in the general area proposed to be closed to fishing during and after construction with an estimated daily value of $2600 and seasonal value of $89,000/tonne,” Power Squadron Marine Management’s submission said.

“Applicant makes no provision to address the impact.”

Many submitters cited environmental concerns, construction noise and the cost of the project.

Some also pointed to tourism as a so-called “false friend” which “increases the proportion of low-wage jobs”.

Better to have more low-wage jobs than more people not in work.

Both Qantas and Air New Zealand opposed the project, along with the Board of Airline Representatives.

Qantas’ submission summarised that while there may be possible economic benefits, “over-investment in infrastructure is likely to result in higher ticket prices in the medium term which could reduce demand and have negative economic impacts”.

That is a big issue. How much would landing fees increase for current flights?

Those in favour particularly cited the opportunities for economic growth.

Submitters included Chambers of Commerce and tourism development groups from Marlborough through to Hawke’s Bay.

It also included local icons such as Weta Workshop and the World of Wearable Arts.

Tertiary education providers, WelTec, Whitireia and Victoria University support the extension and hope it will help them take a larger share of the international student market.

Some heavyweight names in support.

Jenna Lynch at Newshub writes: