Nick Wilson and two others blog at Otago University:

The studies we found suggest a very diverse range of results as shown in Table 1, but all suggest lower levels of risk for vapers compared to tobacco smokers. In particular, the risk associated with carbon monoxide seems likely to be close to 0% or a few percent at most. However, preliminary evidence (ie, one study by Carnevale et al (7)) suggests that the effect of vaping on four other inflammatory markers of likely relevance to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and respiratory disease may be at least half that of tobacco smoking. The results for cancer-related toxicants were variable, from 0% to 23% of the levels observed for tobacco smokers, with most studies reporting between 14% and 23% – a substantial level of exposure. But it is plausible that some of these toxicants could be due to unreported dual use with smoked tobacco (and even exposure to secondhand smoke).

So almost no carbon monoxide impact, and reduced levels of other toxicants.

It is important to know that e-cigarettes are a reduced harm product – that is not the same as harmless. You don’t want people going from not being a smoker to using e-cigarettes. But you do want people who are already smoking to start using e-cigarettes as a substitute for tobacco.

The academics conclude:

It seems likely that if smokers shift entirely to vaping their risk of chronic disease would be expected to decline. But if they stay vaping long-term – then they may still be exposed to some notable level of toxicants that are hazardous in terms of cancer, cardiovascular disease and possibly long-term respiratory disease. The safest option for smokers using vaping to reduce their health risk would be to limit the duration of dual use with cigarette smoking (ie, switching completely to vaping as soon as possible) and to also limit the total duration of vaping with a goal of reaching abstinence from both smoking and vaping, wherever possible without relapsing to smoking, which represents the greater risk to health.

I agree.

The Herald editorial:

The second reality that needs to be recognised by all concerned is that New Zealand does not need another port. The country already has too many.

If ports were run by the Government rather than local bodies, they would have been rationalised long ago. If port companies were answerable to private shareholders, the same thing would have happened, probably more efficiently than by government design. If Ports of Auckland was on the sharemarket, it would not be still enraging Aucklanders with these bids for more of the harbour. Its shareholders would have found it more worthwhile to co-operate with their nearest competitor, the Port of Tauranga.

Ports such as Tauranga are on the sharemarket and Tauranga has bought into Northport at Marsden Pt. With co-operation between Auckland, Tauranga and Northport, the need to ship goods into and out of this part of the country could surely be accommodated without further encroachment on the Waitemata – or dredging a $5 billion “super port” on the Manukau or the Firth. No such nonsense would be contemplated if the Auckland Council floated even part of its needlessly owned port. The city needs a council with the courage to do so.

The Council owning the Port has meant it is less responsive to the public.

The Herald reports:

FBI Director James Comey said that his agency will not recommend criminal charges against Hillary Clinton for her use of a private email server as secretary of state, but called Clinton and her staff “extremely careless” in handling sensitive material.

Comey said the FBI investigations into more than 30,000 emails – and others pieced together from data “fragments” – determined that “no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.” The findings now go to the Justice Department.

The announcement – which came only about 72 hours after FBI agents interviewed Clinton – in some ways lifts the cloud that has been hanging over Clinton’s presidential campaign for months.

But it will almost certainly spark criticism that the outcome of the high-profile probe was a foregone conclusion, influenced heavily by political considerations.

Comey said Justice Department prosecutors also must make a final determination, though he was unequivocal in stating his view.

“We are expressing our view to Justice that no charges are appropriate in this case,” he said.

But Comey note clear shortcomings in security protocols for the emails, which include 50 in “classified” categories with eight “top secret.”

“Although we did not find clear evidence that Secretary Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information,” Comey said.

Eric Crampton has a lengthy post at The Spinoff on Auckland housing. He looks at what won’t and will make a difference.

First why there is a problem:

Auckland is adding houses less quickly than it is adding households. But it cannot be as simple as that. Avocado shortages aside, high migration figures haven’t led to shortages of anything else that people buy – and I would not blame migrants for the avocado shortages either. Auckland doesn’t have a barber crisis induced by the tens of thousands more people who need haircuts every month as compared to the same time last year.

Fundamentally, the problem has to be constraints on supply: either the building industry simply cannot keep up, or the council isn’t zoning enough land for either building up or building out.

The constraint, so far, has not been the construction industry. When I was at the University of Canterbury, you couldn’t walk between two buildings during the earthquake rebuild without meeting Irish accents in fluoro vests. Markets can scale up to meet demand if they expect that demand to be sustained. Builders can come in from overseas. Cement plants can be expanded and upgraded. Unexpected housing demand can then cause price blips, but you shouldn’t get the years-long rolling maul we’ve seen in prices.

The series of three reports the Initiative released in 2013, our reports since, and the Productivity Commission’s reports, point pretty strongly to council-level constraints on new building. Pro-density activists made it too hard to expand at the outskirts of town; Not In My Back Yard activists made it too hard to build apartment towers or terraced housing close to downtown. When a city can’t go out or up, prices can only go one way when population increases.

Auckland needs both up and out.

He then looks at the red herrings:

• 33,000 empty houses at the census – is lower than most centres as a proportion, and consists of houses being sold. renovated or holiday rentals
• Capital Gains Tax – will cause a one off drop in house prices, but not stop them appreciating again.
• Migrants – Atlanta has gone from 3 million to 5.7 million people but houses there are only three times median household income- because they build to keep up
• More state houses – The Government also has to obey the Auckland zoning rules. Unless Parliament legislates over the top of the Auckland Unitary plan, they are also limited to where they can build
• Land banking – agrees with Phil Twyford the solution to land-banking is eliminating the RUB and allowing development to “leapfrog” over existing land-banks

So what does Crampton suggest:

• Give Councils incentives to have houses built such as the GST revenue from the construction costs
• Change zoning to allow housing to build up and out
• Amend RMA to make it easier to subdivide, easier to change district plans and harder to block new developments

The Telegraph reports:

Boris Johnson has given his backing to Andrea Leadsom in the Conservative Party leadership campaign, in a move which could end Michael Gove’s hopes of becoming Prime Minister.

Boris would probably now endorse Jeremy Corbyn over Michael Gove.

In an intervention that will transform the Tory leadership race, Mr Johnson praises Mrs Leadsom’s “zap, drive and determination”.

He says she combines a “better understanding of finance” than almost any other MP with “considerable experience of Government”. …

Mrs Leadsom is now likely to emerge as the main challenger to Theresa May, the Home Secretary.

It came after a poll of Conservative activists by the ConservativeHome website found that Mrs Leadsom has pulled ahead of Mrs May.

The poll found that she had the support of 38 per cent of party members, compared to Mrs May’s 37 per cent. 

May is in a strong position but the fact she was pro Leave may mean at the end of the day the party members won’t back her. Time will tell.

UPDATE: The results of the first ballot were:

1. Theresa May 165
2. Andrea Leadsom 66
3. Michael Gove 48
4. Stephen Crabb 34
5. Liam Fox 16

So Fox is eliminated and in two days they vote again to knock one more out. Almost certainly to be Crabb as he’d have to get almost all of Fox’s votes to beat Gove.

UPDATE2: Crabb has pulled out and endorsed May. So it is one more ballot only of MPs, with it being between Leadsom and Gove for 2nd spot.

The top two candidates then go out to a ballot of all party members.

Stuff reports:

New documents cast doubt on Newshub’s claim that it admitted leaking an interest rate decision before it was investigated.  …

However Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler had earlier briefed the central bank’s board that MediaWorks had had to be prodded into admitting the leak.

“MediaWorks conducted its own investigation and initially said they had found no leak,” the Reserve Bank minutes of March 17 read.

“However, after prompting from Deloitte, MediaWorks had searched again and found the emails containing the leaked information.”

The Reserve Bank declined to comment. MediaWorks has been approached for comment.

Doesn’t really help their brand, having an OIA reveal they were economical with the truth.

NBR reports:

When NBR ONLINE first introduced its paywall in 2009, people lined up to give it the bash.

Sam Morgan, then a Fairfax director, called it “the brick wall” and he was one of the politer ones.

But it turns out that if you deliver news people can use, they are willing to pay for it.

People did sign on, and new subscription options have seen numbers accelerating over just the past six months to hit 4000 individual paid member subscribers today.

Their numbers are supplemented by 336 organisations with IP (internet protocol) subscriptions that let every staff member access NBR ONLINE from their office.

4,000 individual subscriptions is a good achievement. I suspect the bulk of the revenue comes from the 336 corporate subscriptions but still a useful contributions.

As Fairfax and NZME look at paywalls, they should look at how NBR has managed to do it profitably. From what I can tell, they do two important things:

• Provide lots of really good analysis, not just news (which you can get anywhere)
• Have some stories outside the paywall to get visits, but the best stuff behind the paywall so people know it is there and want to see it

Stuff reports:

Fairfax Media has settled a case brought by Stephen Jennings against the company and its former reporter, Michael Field, regarding an article published in March 2015 on www.stuff.co.nz, and in a number of regional Fairfax newspapers, about Mr Jennings and his businesses.

Fairfax Media’s management, its editors and Mr Field apologise unreservedly to Mr Jennings for the article. We accept that the article and the statements about Mr Jennings and his businesses within it were entirely without merit; Mr Field did not contact Mr Jennings for his comment; and the article failed to meet Fairfax’s high expectations in relation to its own editorial standards and journalistic ethics.

The amount of the settlement, which included an offer by Fairfax to repeat its apology in open court, is substantial. Mr Jennings has confirmed he is donating the net settlement to charities focused on Taranaki, his home province, and sub-Saharan Africa, where his businesses operate.

I’ve read a lot of defamation settlement statements over the years and this one represents an absolute reaming. The key statements are:

We accept that the article and the statements about Mr Jennings and his businesses within it were entirely without merit

Can’t get much harsher than that. But the real zinger is:

The amount of the settlement, which included an offer by Fairfax to repeat its apology in open court, is substantial.

Normally a settlement is done to hide the amount being paid. For the agreed statement to reveal it is substantial, shows Fairfax was on a hiding to nothing and knew they would lose massively in court.

Stuff reports:

Hopes of a Government Budget surplus in the financial year just ended have been given a boost, with new data showing the books were in the black by $320 million more than forecast at the end of May.

The financial statements for the 11 months to May 31 showed a surplus on the operating balance before gains and losses (Obegal) of $2.3 billion against a forecast $1.98b. 

The surplus of $2.3b compared to an Obegal surplus of $1.2b at the same time last year. Tax revenue has increased by 5.7 per cent while expenses grew by 2.3 per cent over that time.

It looks likely we will make surplus for a 2nd consecutive year. That is not an insignificant achievement – and one few other countries in the OECD have managed.

Here’s the current deficits in other countries as a percentage of GDP:

• Canada 1.3%
• Ireland 2.3%
• Australia 2.8%
• France 3.5%
• UK 4.4%
• US 4.9%

Now remember this is the deficit as a proportion of the size of the economy. As a proportion of government revenue they will often be around two to three times as big.

So we’re situated pretty well. Having a surplus means we get to have a choice about how much should go on extyra spending, debt reduction or tax cuts. Deficits means little choice.

Stuff reports:

It’s time for Wellington to banish the buses, tear out the traffic and hand control of its main street to people on foot, a mayoral aspirant says.

Councillor Nicola Young has promised to push for Lambton Quay to be converted into a pedestrian mall, and to revisit sending State Highway 1 underground along Vivian St, if she is elected mayor in October.

With the demise of Wellington’s trolley buses just around the corner, and the decommissioning of the overhead wires to follow, the time was right to discuss removing traffic altogether from the jewel in the Golden Mile, Young said.

It would place Wellington alongside other “forward-thinking” cities that had restricted their main shopping areas to foot traffic, such as Sydney’s Pitt St Mall and Adelaide’s Rundle Mall.

Young’s vision for Lambton Quay involves paving, more trees, street furniture, distinctive feature lighting, social spaces and no vehicle fumes.

I think this is a very good idea. Bob Jones proposed similar a few years back. Turning it into a mall would be great for the city centre. Get far more people shopping and walking there and more outdoor sections for cafes.

A third UK party is now leaderless, but this one in a good way, reports Stuff:

Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage has resigned as head of the UK Independence Party (Ukip), saying he had realised his ambition of Britain voting to leave the European Union.

Farage said on Monday he had “done my bit” following the referendum.

“What I said during the referendum campaign is I want my country back. What I’m saying today is I want my life back,” he said.

Farage said the victory for the Leave side meant his political ambition was achieved. “I came into this struggle from business because I wanted us to be a self-governing nation, not to become a career politician.

Very smart to get out while on top. It can only be down hill from here, especially as UKIP no longer has much of a rationale to keep going.

Some calculations from a Liberal source:

So if the pre-polls go as strongly to the Coalition as in 2013, they could get close to 80 seats. Not sure the trend will be the same though, as there were more pre-polls this time and Labor’s scare campaign on Medicare was at its height during the pre-poll period.

The latest ABC results has Coalition 68, Labor 67, 5 others and 10 in doubt.

The Herald reports:

The Green Party says it will not soften its anti-genetic modification stance despite a plea from some of the world’s top scientists, who say opposition by green groups is blocking GM foods that could help reduce disease in third-world countries.

In an open letter published last week, 107 Nobel laureates urged environmental groups to end their opposition to genetically modified food, saying that there was no evidence of risks to human health and their stance was based on emotion and dogma. The scientists singled out Greenpeace, saying it had led opposition to Golden Rice, a crop which is genetically modified to provide Vitamin A and which has the potential to reduce disease and death in third-world countries.

The open letter prompted Act Party leader David Seymour to call on the Green Party to abandon its “outdated” position on GM.

“The Green Party needs to catch up with science, and modify its position on genetic modification, especially when Golden Rice has the ability to give sight to thousands of babies struggling with a lack of Vitamin A,” he said.

Green Party GM spokesman Steffan Browning said the party re-evaluated its GM policy regularly, but it would not be making any changes as a result of the open letter.

Of course not. Who do 107 nobel laureates know. They’re the sort of nutters who who also poo-poo treating Ebola with homeopathy.

Stuff reports:

Top Gear’s new host Chris Evans has quit after just one season, a day after reports of a police investigation into claims of sexual assault.

Evans took to Twitter to announce his resignation overnight, saying: “Gave it my best shot but sometimes that’s not enough”.

He made no mention of newspaper reports a day earlier that he would soon be interviewed by London’s Metropolitan Police over a former colleague’s allegations that he groped her and exposed himself to her and other staff at a workplace in the 1990s.

Evans was cited as the cause of a ratings plummet on the rebooted show, amid reports of a feud between him and co-host Matt LeBlanc, of Friends fame.

Just 1.9 million viewers tuned in for its final episode of the season on Sunday night. Its premiere in May drew 4.4 million viewers – still well down from about 5.8 million who tuned in during previous seasons hosted by Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and James May.

His resignation will have nothing to do with the historic claims, but all to do with massively low ratings and LeBlanc falling out with him.

There’s hope for future seasons with LeBlanc who has been excellent.

“There are some truths so completely self-evident, that demonstration is quite superfluous. This is one of that number. For who would attempt to deny, that the certainty of enjoying the fruits of one’s land, capital and labour, is the most powerful inducement to render them productive? Or who is dull enough to doubt, that no one knows so well as the proprietor how to make the best use of his property? Yet how often in practice is that inviolability of property disregarded, which, in theory is allowed by all to be so immensely advantageous? How often is it broken in upon for the most insignificant purposes and its violation, that should naturally excite indignation, justified upon the most flimsy pretexts?”

– Jean Baptiste Say

The quote of the week is brought to you by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. To support the Union’s campaign for lower taxes and less government waste, click here.

A translation of a story in Bild is fascinating:

In a remarkable interview this week, Franz Klintsevich, a senior Russian security official, explained the case matter-of-factly: “Let’s be frank. Snowden did share intelligence. This is what security services do. If there’s a possibility to get information, they will get it.”

With this, Klintsevich simply said what all intelligence professionals already knew – that Snowden is a collaborator with the FSB. That he really had no choice in the matter once he set foot in Russia does not change the facts.

Klintsevich is no idle speculator. He is a senator who has served in the State Duma for nearly a decade. More importantly, he is the deputy chair of the senate’s defense and security committee, which oversees the special services. The 59-year-old Klintsevich thus has access to many state secrets – for instance regarding the Snowden case. …

His statement outing Snowden’s relationship with the Kremlin therefore cannot be an accident or a slip of the tongue. For whatever reason, Putin has decided to out Snowden as the collaborator that he actually is – and has been for three years already.

One reason for this may be Snowden’s recent tepid criticism via Twitter of Russia’s draconian new laws on domestic surveillance – which vastly exceed any of the activities of the Western democracies that Snowden has so strongly criticized from his FSB hideaway. Indeed, his hosts finally allowing their American collaborator to tweet negatively about Russia – many had noted Snowden’s silence on FSB repression and worse – may be a sign that the defector has outlived his usefulness.

In truth, Snowden was never all that well informed about American intelligence. Contrary to the myths that he and his mouthpieces have propagated, he was no more than an IT systems administrator. Snowden was never any sort of bona fide spy. There are no indications he really understands most of what he stole from NSA.

The FSB therefore milked Snowden of any valuable information rather quickly. He likely had little light to shed on the million-plus secret files he stole. Instead, his value to Moscow has been as a key player in Kremlin propaganda designed to discredit the Western intelligence alliance.

In that role, Snowden has done a great deal of damage to the West. But he was never a “mole” for Moscow inside NSA. In reality, the Snowden Operation is probably a cover to deflect attention from the one or more actual Russian moles who have been lurking inside NSA for years, undetected.

Based on the cases of previous Western intelligence defectors to Moscow, Edward Snowden faces an unhappy future. Whatever happens to him is up to his hosts, who control all aspects of any defector’s life. There no longer can be any honest debate about his relationship with the Kremlin, which has settled the matter once and for all. Putin and his special services consider Snowden to be nash – there is no question about that now.

So Snowden stole information from the US, and has shared it with Russia. Can’t see him getting a pardon anytime soon. He should get used to living in Russia.

The Guardian reports:

Ben Wallace, an MP who was working on Johnson’s campaign, wrote on Twitter that Gove would be like Theon Greyjoy from TV series Game of Thrones, “by the time I am finished with him”. The character was tortured in a dungeon and had his penis removed.

Extraordinary to have one MP tweet this about another in their party.

But Gove may well not make the final two. Theresa May is almost certain to be one of the final two. The Conservative caucus vote on the five candidates, and the two highest polling go forward to a full membership ballot.

Andrea Leadson may get the second highest number of votes, which would mean teh final choice would be between two women.

Audrey Young gives ratings for the Ministers halfway through their third term. Her scores are:

• John Key 9/10
• Anne Tolley 9/10
• Murray McCully 8/10
• Todd McClay 8/10
• Amy Adams 8/10
• Simon Bridges 8/10
• Hekia Parata 8/10
• Bill English 7/10
• Nikki Kaye 7/10
• Gerry Brownlee 7/10
• Steven Joyce 7/10
• Judith Collins 7/10
• Maggie Barry 7/10
• Jonathan Coleman 7/10
• Chris Finlayson 7/10
• Nathan Guy 7/10
• Paula Bennett 6/10
• Michael Woodhouse 5/10
• Nick Smith 5/10
• Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga 4/10

Newshub reports:

Green Party co-Leader Metiria Turei is defending Housing New Zealand (HNZ) after Newshub revealed thousands of three-bedroom state homes are being occupied by a single person.

Now the logical thing to do is move these people into smaller state homes. But Labour and Greens oppose moving a tenant out of a state home, no matter how their circumstances change.

This means that fewer people get into a state house.

Ms Turei believes many of the tenants in the apparently under-occupied properties have family staying with them, but can’t tell HNZ because they’re too scared they’ll be kicked out.

Now think about the implications of this. Turei is saying that tenants actually have many more people living in them, but not telling HNZ because if they did their income level would be too high to qualify.

So again the Greens support state homes not going to those most in need, but just those who happen to already have one – and tough luck to those who have greater needs.

Bryce Wilkinson writes:

If you are above 40, I hope you would have built some financial net worth through hard work and thrift.  And if you are under 40, I hope that at least you aspire to build up some savings for a more comfortable retirement.
 
But perhaps like me, you did not realise that by working hard, paying off your mortgages and saving, you are depriving 15-19 year olds of a fair share of your wealth?  Every dollar you save relative to someone with no savings increases wealth inequality.

Yep the more you save, the more wealth inequality there is as a 15 year old hasn’t yet started working to save money.

It gets worse. There is also major inequality within each stage of the life cycle. Take households with dependent children. The median net worth of such a two adult household is around $250,000; for a one adult household it is $26,000. But is this the fault of two-adult households?

Of course it is. We should take $110,000 from every two adult household and give it to every sole adult household.

And let’s not get started on education-related inequality. Those who worked hard to get post-school qualifications, and subsequently, obviously earn more and own more. The median net worth of those with a master’s degree or a doctorate is $195,000; it is only $49,000 for those with no school qualification. But does that mean we need to blame academics for inequality?

This is also an easy one. If you work hard and get a post-graduate degree you need to then hand over $75,000 to a school leaver to compensate them.

On TV, Sue Bradford blamed the lamentably unresponsive major political parties for inequality. Decent political parties would force you all to do the decent thing.
 
But the real question is this: If age, education, and hard work are the most important factors for some people being wealthier than others, is there anything that could or should be done about it? And would anyone vote for it? 

Logan’s Run had the solution. Their solution was highly effective at preventing wealth inequality.

The Herald reports:

A Northland retailer selling e-cigarettes is “astounded” by the growth in sales since tobacco prices increased 10 per cent on January 1.

People puffing on the electronic devices, or “vaping” as the practice was known, were becoming a common sight around Northland with the retailer – who spoke anonymously – describing the cigarette substitutes as “the best thing I’ve ever sold”.

E-cigarettes – or electronic cigarettes – are devices that allow users to mimic the ritual of smoking a cigarette. Many glow at the end when activated, as real cigarettes do. Instead of inhaling smoke from burning tobacco, users inhale vapour containing nicotine.

“I’m astounded at how many people are buying them, and at how many people are giving up smoking using them. It’s a quiet little revolution,” said the retailer, who lost both his parents to smoking-related illnesses.

“I gave up cold turkey 10 years ago and it was hell – for about a year. The hardest thing to give up about smoking is the puff and the kick. These [customers] say it’s easy, and they’ve been trying for years and years.”

Yes it is possibly the easiest way for people to quit smoking, yet it is illegal to sell the nicotine for e-cigarettes in NZ – people have to import from overseas.

Holly Bognar said she had smoked for most of her life from about age 13 – apart from when she was pregnant.

“I’d always gone back to it,” the 38-year-old said.

“I was heavily smoking until four months ago and now I don’t at all, not even when I drink alcohol, I’ve transitioned to e-cigarettes.”

Ms Bognar said, when she first switched to her e-cigarette, she puffed on it a lot, a pattern the retailer said a lot of his customers reported.

“Now I’ve sort of weaned myself down, which just gradually happened,” she said.

“It’s also the amount you can save. It was about $65 initially, and a thing of oil (for the e-ciggie) is about $10, which lasts a couple of weeks. That’s compared to probably a 30g in five days, which is $55 and heaps to take out of your benefit.”

So saving $45 a week and far less harmful.

Stuff reports:

Kiwis in rental properties which need insulation under new rules could face price hikes of $15 a week as a result of the changes, a landlords’ organisation says.

Labour says a failure to place heating standards into the rules means they are not enough to help families living in cold homes.

The new tenancy laws, which come into effect on Friday, mean all rental properties must have working smoke alarms by then, and insulation within three years.

There must be underfloor and ceiling insulation to 1978 standards in all 60,000 social housing properties by Friday, and all new tenancy agreements must declare the level of insulation.

Insulation is a good idea as it keeps houses warmer and reduces heating bills.

But it has to be paid for, and it can be pretty expensive. So yes rents will rise to cover the cost of the insulation. Hopefully this will be compensated for by reduced power bills.