Fibre and data

Seen some interesting data from Chorus:

  • Average monthly usage over all connections is 100GB/mth
  • This is double a year ago and seven times what we did in 2012
  • For fibre connections it is 200 GB/mth
  • Average download speeds are now 26 Mb/s – up from 16 Mb/s a year ago

So in the last year data usage has doubled and download speeds are up 65% or so.

A law Germany should get rid of

The Washington Post reports:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has cleared the way for the prosecution of German comedian Jan Böhmermann, whose poem mocking Turkey’s president has become the centerpiece of a clash between Germany’s free-speech traditions and the government’s efforts to safeguard its important relations with Turkey.

In a news conference Friday, Merkel emphasized that it will now be up to German courts to decide whether Böhmermann is guilty of insulting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But critics — including members of her own government — have described it as a betrayal of values protecting open expression.

“In a country under the rule of law, it is not up to the government to decide,” Merkel said. “Prosecutors and courts should weight personal rights against the freedom of press and art.” …

In her statement Friday, Merkel tried to appease critics by announcing that she would seek to repeal the controversial German law against insulting heads of state.

They should repeal the law. Heads of State are exactly the sort of people who should be able to be insulted, not protected.

Tim Murphy on Victoria Crone

Blogger Tim Murphy writes at The Spinoff:

Tim Murphy was a sceptic when Victoria Crone’s candidacy for the Auckland mayoralty was announced. But watching her form at a public meeting on Thursday has him questioning that judgement. …

On a Thursday night at the Takapuna Boating Club, six months from election day, Crone is showing many signs of someone with the bit between her teeth. Months ago, when she announced her bid, she seemed one-dimensional: vote for me because I’m a CEO and young and businesspeople get it.

It’s clear she’s spent the intervening period getting to grips with Auckland issues and some of the intricacies of the Auckland Council and its Council-Controlled Organisations. Talking to some of the players. Poring over the numbers. Looking for points of weakness in the status quo, and in Phil Goff’s personal platform.

To an audience of about 50 mainly middle-aged to older voters, she impresses with her knowledge of things city-wide and local.

The full article is worth a read.

Incidentally Tim has written a number of good pieces for The Spinoff. The site is worth regularly checking out.

Brazilian House votes to impeach Roussef

CNN reports:

After more than five hours of voting, a motion to impeach Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff garnered enough support to pass in the country’s lower house Sunday night, but voting is still ongoing. As of 11:08 p.m. (10:08 p.m. ET), at least 342 lawmakers had voted in favor of impeachment.

That is 342 out of 475 votes to date, so there are 38 votes still to be cast.

The next step is:

The impeachment motion would next go to the country’s Senate. If a majority approves it there, Rousseff will have to step down for 180 days to defend herself in an impeachment trial.

So the next step is for the Snate to vote to hold a trial – a simple majority of 41/81 votes needed.

Then after the trial the Senate votes whether to remove her from office, which needs a two thirds majority.

The NYT reports:

A former Marxist guerilla, Ms. Rousseff had never before held elected office, and critics say her lack of political skills hampered her ability to work with opposition members in Congress as well as key figures in her governing coalition.

And she diddled the books in order to get re-elected.

HDPA on Labour

Heather du Plessis-Allan writes:

It was a couple of weeks ago, at the height of Labour’s most recent series of fluffs. You know, the stuff about Indian chefs and acting like Rob Muldoon with bank lending rates.

I was killing time around Parliament, waiting for a minister. A Labour Party insider was killing time too. We got talking.

Andrew Little said this. Andrew Little said that. Tired of his cock-ups. Tired of being blamed for his mistakes.

It wasn’t a surprise morale in the Labour Party was low, it was a surprise someone was being honest about it.

For a while now, everyone in the party has bravely kept painting their faces, putting on their party frocks and pretending life was peachy.

Later that day, I walked through the arrivals gate at Auckland airport next to a well-connected political mover and shaker. We got talking. Trouble’s brewing in the Labour Party.

They’re talking of cutting Grant Robertson. They’re talking of cutting the chief of staff. Watch this space.

That was two weeks ago. That was before the party hit 28 per cent in the latest poll.

That was before the poll result? Wonder what the chatter must be like now!

Labour has it tough. Labour parties across the world have it tough. These were parties formed to save workers from unjust working conditions. The parties have mostly succeeded. Workplaces and employment legislation is a million times better now than in 1916.

So what does a political party do when its mission is accomplished?

It sits down with a cup of tea – the eight years of opposition might have been an opportune time – and figures out its next task.

But it has to be honest about what it stands for.

Labour told us it stood for the old flag. That’s not true. In black and white, its own policy was to change the flag. It was just trying to get one over John Key. Well, it got one over John Key and it’s still polling worse than the tea-towel flag.

Good point.

Labour told us it stood for keeping Indian restaurant chef jobs for Kiwis. We pondered why we had never seriously considered a career as a chef in an Indian restaurant.

Their future of work!

Look at UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. He’s beating David Cameron in some polls. He’s a borderline-communist eccentric you’re never entirely convinced bothered to shower that morning.

But he’s authentic. He says what he means and will do it.

Corbyn is authentic. I’m not sure emulating Corbyn will help Labour here, but they should give it a try!

Inflation now at 0.4%

Stats NZ reports:

The consumers price index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent in the March 2016 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. This follows a fall of 0.5 percent in the December 2015 quarter.

“Higher prices for cigarettes, food, and housing-related costs were countered by lower prices for petrol and air fares,” consumer prices manager Matt Haigh said.

Cigarette and tobacco prices showed the highest upward contribution, up 9.4 percent in the March 2016 quarter following a rise in excise duty in January.

“The average price of a pack of 25 cigarettes was $28.79 in the March 2016 quarter, more than double the price from six years ago when annual 10 percent excise tax increases were introduced,” Mr Haigh said.

Excluding cigarettes and tobacco, the CPI showed a fall of 0.1 percent in the March 2016 quarter.

So if you’re not a smoker, then on average prices have not increased this quarter. That’s great considering there has been steady increase in wages, benefit rates and the level of superannuation. You get increased spending power.

The CPI increased 0.4 percent in the year to the March 2016 quarter, up from a 0.1 percent increase for the year to the December 2015 quarter.  

Housing-related prices continue to be the main upward contributor, up 3.0 percent in the year. This rise was led by higher prices for rent (up 2.3 percent) and newly built houses excluding land (up 5.0 percent).

Transport prices made the largest downward contribution for the year, influenced by lower petrol prices (down 5.1 percent). Excluding petrol, the CPI showed a 0.7 percent increase in the year to the March 2016 quarter.

I think around 1% is a good place to be for inflation. High enough to avoid deflation but not so high as to chew up purchasing power.

And as always I check the prices of a couple of items that Labour declared were a crisis as they were increasing so much.

  • Electricity prices up 0.6% from a year ago
  • Milk prices down 8.9% from a year ago

Never call a Judge a c*** on the Internet!

Len has the lowest Council attendance

The Herald reports:

Mayor Len Brown had the worst attendance at Auckland Council’s most important meetings last year.

The Herald on Sunday has analysed attendance records for all 21 elected councillors across the four committees that made the biggest decisions – the Auckland Development Committee, the Finance and Performance Committee, and the Regional Strategy and Policy Committee – collectively known as “Committees of the Whole”.

Council’s primary decision-making arm, the Governing Body, which also expects all councillors to attend, was also included.

Across 47 meetings, outgoing mayor Brown and experienced councillor Christine Fletcher were around the table the least, attending 33 meetings (70 per cent).

The Mayor is the one you expect to attend the most meetings, not the least.

Young says time for Gracinda if Labour lose

Audrey Young writes:

Little will stay leader until the next election, of that there is no doubt. If he is not Prime Minister after the 2017 election, it will be Grant Robertson and Jacinda Ardern’s turn.

But who will be Leader and who will be Deputy?

To put it in perspective, the 28 per cent in TV One’s poll this week is exactly what they got two elections ago, under Goff, but it is better than the 25 per cent they got at the last election under Cunliffe.

I find it is better to compare poll results with poll results at the same stage in previous terms, rather than election results. The reason is that Labour generally loses vote share during election campaigns as minor parties get more attention.

In April of the middle year of National’s 1st term Labour was at 33% (April 2010) and in April 2013 it was at 36%. So the 28% result is significantly worse than what Labour were doing under Goff and Shearer.

The poll results are a reflection of the long-running identity crisis and Little’s recent exacerbation of it.

The party that began TPP under Clark rejected the done deal then tried to be the farmers’ best friend.

The party seeks respectability in the business community but contemplates a return to Muldoonist regulation of interest rates.

It wants to be the party to target inequality but toys with the idea of giving the rich and poor the same universal basic income.

A good summary.

That approach was in action this week with Little’s extraordinary attack on John Key’s so-called moral compass – according to Little, he doesn’t have one – in the wake of the Panama papers.

Establishing a negative impression of Key is everything; nuance is non-existent and facts are a luxury in this new clobbering approach of Little’s.

Labour is not bothered that Key has no foreign trust, that there is no evidence of any unethical behaviour by Key or his lawyer. It is apparently enough that he was a currency trader, that he is wealthy, that he waited for a week before ordering an inquiry into the 12,000 foreign trusts in New Zealand in order to cast him as the Prime Minister only for the privileged and greedy end of town and a person of “no moral compass”.

Yep. The same strategy that Labour has tried to use since 2007.

Latest NZ Internet Stats

The 2015 World Internet Project study for NZ is out. Some interesting data:

  • 91% of NZers use the Internet
  • 3% are ex users and 5% have never used the Internet
  • 75% of NZers have accessed the Internet through a laptop, 74% mobile phone, 70% PC, 59% tablet, 22% games console and 17% smart TV
  • 16% of Internet users have a fibre connection
  • Those who do an activity at least weekly are
    • Browse web 91%
    • Social Media 78%
    • Watch videos online 49%
    • Listen to music 44%
    • Watch TV shows online 42%
    • Play games 36%
    • Listen to radio 23%
    • Download films 21%
    • View porn 14%
    • Look at religious sites 11%
    • Gamble 5%
  • Social media use is Facebook 44%, You Tube 27%, Linked In 16%, Instagram 10%, Twitter 9%
  • Sadly only 35% think it is safe to express political opinion online

Canada introduces euthanasia law

Stuff reports:

Canada’s Liberal government on Thursday (Friday NZ Time) unveiled draft legislation on doctor-assisted suicide which would apply to adults suffering incurable illness or disability but stopped short of extending it to minors or the mentally ill for now.

Legislators will vote on the draft law, which applies only to Canadians and residents in the country, in the next few weeks. The law is expected to pass because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have a majority in Parliament.

The Supreme Court of Canada overturned a ban on physician-assisted suicide last year but gave the new government extra time to pass legislation, adding Canada to the handful of Western countries that allow the practice.

Trudeau, whose father declined treatment for cancer before his 2000 death, said Canadians were “extremely seized with this issue.”

“It’s a deeply personal issue that affects all of us and our families and all of us individually as we approach the end of our lives,” he told reporters. “The plan we have put forward is one that respects Canadians’ choices while putting in place the kinds of safeguards needed.”

Polls show physician-assisted suicide has broad support in Canada but the issue has divided politicians in Parliament as they grapple with how to protect vulnerable Canadians while respecting their rights and choices at the end of life.

Under the law, patients would have to make a written request for medical assistance in dying or have a designated person do so if they are unable.

There would be a mandatory waiting period of at least 15 days in many cases, and patients would be able to withdraw a request at any time.

Patients would also have to be experiencing “enduring and intolerable suffering” and death would have to be “reasonably foreseeable”.

Useful timing as we have a select committee looking at this issue at the moment.

Sell it and buy three new state houses

Stuff reports:

The tenant of a $1 million state house is making a buck off Housing New Zealand, charging boarders rent for a room vacated by her grown-up children.

Housing New Zealand said its tenancy agreements forbid tenants to rent out the HNZ-owned premises they were occupying – or “any part of it”. 

It will now investigate this case. 

The tenant has occupied the two-bedroom house in Auckland’s posh Freemans Bay, which has a council valuation of $1.4 million, for more than a decade.

She has also, flouting Auckland council rules, built a ‘dwelling’ in the back yard without building consent.

Housing NZ should sell the $1.4 million house and use the proceeds to build or buy two or three more affordable houses.

When the boarder was approached for comment, his landlady had been on holiday in Australia. 

He did not know how long the woman had been making a profit from her own tenants. 

She doesn’t seem to be in dire poverty. This is why state houses should not be a house for life, but go to those most in need. For some reason Labour opposes this.

Key on Dalziel

Stuff reports:

Prime Minister John Key, who was in Christchurch on Thursday to open stage one of the BNZ Centre, said he did not take a particular view on “any mayor”, but lauded Dalziel’s time at the helm.

“I don’t endorse any mayor around the country.

“But I’ve come to Christchurch regularly over the course of the last three years and I’ve got up and praised Lianne for the work she’s done as mayor and I say that because I genuinely believe it,” Key said.

Dalziel had put her “heart and soul into the job”.

“In the end it’s for her to decide whether she wants to continue and if not I’m sure others will put their names forward and ultimately it’s critically important that Christchurch gets a strong leader.

“I’ve enjoyed working alongside Lianne, if she wants to continue as the mayor the Government will have a very constructive working relationship with her,” Key said.

Dalziel has indeed not been a partisan Mayor, which was the worry many had. She has worked constructively with the Government in many areas, while of course disagreeing also.

I’m always going to prefer a more fiscally conservative Mayor with policies to limit rates rises. But overall Dalziel has done a reasonable job.

A major ACC fraud

Stuff reports:

A Marlborough widow has 40 days to pay back $373,000 after lying to ACC about her new partner.

The woman illegally claimed benefits for close to a decade, saying she was not in a de facto relationship, despite living with her new boyfriend, building a house and having a child with him.

The woman, who cannot be named, was eligible for survivor’s grants and weekly compensation from ACC after her husband died in an accident in the late 1980s.

She signed an ACC form every year until 2012 stating she was not married or in a de facto relationship. 

However, an ACC investigation discovered her new partner moved into her home in 1992.

They had a child together later that year, and the man became joint owner of the property in 1996.

The couple acquired a further 10 properties over the years.

ACC’s investigation in 2013 determined their relationship was “in the nature of marriage”, and weekly compensation to the woman should have stopped in 2004.

Her payments stopped following the investigation.

She admitted in an interview with ACC that she lived with the man and that they had a child together.

But she denied their relationship was de facto or in the nature of marriage.

They live together. They own property together and they have children. Of course they are a de facto couple.

She just has entitlementitis. Believed she should have got state support for ever.

She was sentenced to two years’ imprisonment, which was converted to 12 months’ home detention.

She was also sentenced to 150 hours’ community work, and to repay $373,000 within 40 days.

If the woman had not paid the full amount by May 25, the court would apply to review the sentence and the only option would be prison, Judge Ruth said.

A very light sentence. Four week’s community work and staying at home.

Her name was suppressed until that date.

Her lawyer said the woman was likely to appeal the decision.

If there is an appeal, I hope there is a tougher sentence.

Telco review

Stuff reports:

There will be no sudden increases in basic phone and broadband prices after telecommunications regulations get a clean sweep in 2020, the Government has promised.

In a relief for Sky Television, Communications Minister Amy Adams also said she had decided against introducing new regulations governing broadcasting competition, saying broadcasters were “facing more competition than ever”.

Yep. Competition is alive and well with almost a dozen competitors.

The rules that will govern the telecommunications industry will be largely rewritten to reflect the fact that the ultrafast broadband (UFB) network will be largely built by 2020 and will be something of a monopoly.

Adams said proposed the wholesale price of both copper and fibre broadband would be set through a “building blocks” regulatory regime, similar to one that is used to regulate utility pricing in Australia.

The wholesale price of UFB is currently set out in contracts between network builders such as Chorus and the Crown, rather than through regulations.

Some telecommunications retailers have suggested the monthly wholesale price of copper and fibre broadband and phone services could fall by at least $10 a month after the regulatory reset in 2020, meaning cheaper prices for consumers.

Adams clarified she was not assuming the new rules would push up wholesale prices rather than reduce them. “Any time you bring in a new pricing methodology no-one really knows what the outcome of that will be.

This model is basically what most other monopolies have such as airport companies and lines companies. Effectively a maximum rate of return on their assets. It’s not perfect as utilities will then try and inflate their asset base, but it is considerable simpler than the current telco regulation where the Commerce Commission has to wok out the cost of each particular service, and then what the price for it should be.

Regulation is a necessary evil when it comes to monopolies. The best response is to have competition, but when it comes to utilities such as fibre networks,  there is no economic case for competing networks, so hence you need to have some price regulation of a monopoly utility.

KDS and polls

Pete George notes a tweet from a pollster:

Andrew from Colmar Brunton just tweeted:

Wow this week’s poll! The criticism has been much worse than usual. NEVER happens when Labour support increases.

Labour is down 4 to 28%, the first time they have dipped below 30 since the 2014 election, and National is up 3 to 50% – see One News/Colmar Brunton April 2016.

The reaction from the left, apparent on Twitter and at The Standard, ranged from disbelief to  blame, of everything from bad or corrupt polling methods, misleading or corrupt media and John Key.

Hard core Labour supporters have now had nearly eight years of post-Clark frustration and disappointment and daashed hopes.

On current performances (of the party and of leader Andrew Little) this looks unlikely to change any time soon.

Labour has faded from a major party with a widely respected leader to a struggling party with diminishing status.

They are on to their fourth leader and their latest one seems to be heading towards failure, probably hastened by this week’s lurch into dirty politics.

It’s the problem again of people living in a bubble. They and all their friends hate John Key and adore Labour, so how can the polls possibly be right.

Of course the polls are not always accurate. At the last election they under-estimated support for National and over-estimated support for the Greens!

Is it the breed or the owners?

The Herald reports:

Auckland councillor for Manurewa-Papakura Calum Penrose and journalist Duncan Garner have also called for the banning of pitbulls specifically.

Mr Penrose said to RNZ on Sunday: “there’s too many young ones across the country – and particularly in Auckland – that are getting mauled by these dogs.”

On Monday Garner penned an opinion piece which ran on Radio Live’s website, saying they were a “horrible” breed.

However Hazel’s owner, Alanna Gracie of Cambridge, says banning pitbulls is an impractical solution and unfair to the breed, which she believes have a bad rap they don’t deserve.

Cross breeding means it would be practically impossible to enforce such a breed ban, as purebred pitbulls are already banned in New Zealand.

“Where do they draw the line,” she asked.

“They’re just going off their opinion of what a pitbull is. What I think a pitbull looks like and what you think a pitbull looks like could be completely different.”

In the past, dobermans, rottweilers and German shepherds had been singled out for banning, and now it was pitbull’s turn, she said.

“Owners should be held responsible for dog attacks no matter what the breed.”

It was concerning to Ms Gracie that a dog could attack someone, be put down and then its owners could by a new dog the very next day.

The solution was not to ban breeds but to restrict dog ownership, Ms Gracie said.

I think it is both.

Generally I would say the owner is to blame, not the dog. But there are certain breeds that are inherently dangerous and violent. Every week almost there is a story about these breeds and you read that it was out of character for the dog. Well little comfort for the kid whose face was half ripped off.

I would also ban people from having dogs if they have a history of their dogs attacking people. But that is not enough. To many kids get maimed or killed by dogs, and it is almost always the same breeds. You can be the best owner in the world, but some dogs are inherently dangerous.

FBI uses hackers

Stuff reports:

The FBI cracked a San Bernardino terrorist’s phone with the help of professional hackers who discovered and brought to the bureau at least one previously unknown software flaw, according to people familiar with the matter.

The new information was then used to create a piece of hardware that helped the FBI to crack the iPhone’s four-digit personal identification number without triggering a security feature that would have erased all the data, the individuals said.

A much better idea than requiring Apple to create a back door in their phones.

Nats eyeing up Northland

The Herald reports:

National is preparing to try to wrestle the Northland seat back from New Zealand First leader Winston Peters and at least five potential candidates are already in line to take on the challenge.

National lost the seat to Mr Peters in a byelection last year after the resignation of MP Mike Sabin.

The date for selecting the 2017 candidate is yet to be decided, but electorate chairwoman Rose May said Northland would be among the first on National’s list.

Ms May said it would be a challenge to unseat Mr Peters, but emphasised the need for the right candidate to be selected.

“We need to have somebody who is well known in their own right and has that x-factor. If we can find that person, we will have no problem winning the seat back, but if we don’t, then it’s going to be a struggle.”

Mr Peters was “the perfect politician”, Ms May said. “He’s so well known, he’s so well liked. He doesn’t actually do anything.”

Oh he does put out press releases.

Five people are understood to be interested, including Mark Osborne, who was soundly defeated by Mr Peters last year.

Mr Osborne confirmed he was considering a second tilt, but had not made a final decision. He was “not at all” put off by his bruising first encounter with Mr Peters: “It’s not going to be an easy challenge by any stretch of the imagination.”

Others understood to be keen include Kerikeri doctor Chris Reid, former police officers Matt King and Darren Edwards, who now works for the Far North District Council, and businessman Ken Rintoul.

Dr Reid moved to Northland from Britain about 10 years ago after serving as a GP and a decade in the Royal Marines, including time with the Royal Navy’s special forces. A keen photographer, he published a book last year of photos of his patients.

I just hope the voters of Northland ask themselves in 2017, what has Winston actually done for us!

Should Fonterra board reduce even further?

Stuff reports:

Fonterra will announce plans to cut two directors from its board on Thursday, just months after fighting off a pressure for a similar move driven by its shareholders.

On Wednesday night the dairy giant emailed its thousands of shareholders with proposals to make changes to the way it is governed. The plan will be released to the NZX on Thursday morning.

The most striking change will see the number of directors cut to 11.

I think 11 is still too large for a board. While not a hard and fast rule, the optimal size tends to be between five and nine. Less than five and you may not have enough diversity of opinion. More than nine and you find it challenging to have everyone contribute fully.

A by-election only three people can vote in

Buzzfeed reports:

On 19 April possibly the strangest democratic election to any legislature in the world will take place, with seven candidates competing for the votes of three people for one place in the British parliament.

The winning individual will be able to vote on laws, propose amendments, and challenge ministers in parliament. They’ll also be able to claim £300 a day whenever they turn up to work, take advantage of all the facilities parliament offers, and retain the job for life.

Turnout for the ballot is expected to hit 100% since the entire electorate, who collectively get to choose who will receive lifetime membership of parliament, consists of just three people.

Any British citizen is eligible to stand for election to the position on the conditions that a) they are a Liberal Democrat, and b) they have inherited a peerage from their father.

Which is three people, so three Liberal Democrat Peers will elect a forth peer to join them.

It reminds me of this Blackadder episode:

Fewer overstayers