Waitangi Tribunal says TPPA not a Treaty breach

Stuff reports:

The Waitangi Tribunal have ruled the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement has not breached Treaty obligations.

However, the report raised a number of concerns, such as misjudging Maori interests and a lack of transparency on Maori advice.

New Zealand is one of 12 countries party to the free trade deal, which the Government claims will benefit the country by $2.7 billion a year by 2030.

The Treaty of Waitangi clause in the agreement should “provide a reasonable degree of protection to Maori interests”, the Tribunal said.

This is no surprise. Sadly it won’t change the rhetoric of those opposed.

Charles Finny pointed out in February that NZ was the only country that got explicit mention of indigenous rights and protection of the Treaty of Waitangi.

Kiwiblog: The Bachelor special

10 questions that no one wants the answer to, but the media will devote more time and attention to than The Budget:

  1. Did Jordan ever love Fleur?
  2. Is Jordan just an actor?
  3. Naz said on radio she slept with Jordan, but to her ex that she did not. Will the Auditor-General investigate which version is correct?
  4. Will Naz and Crystal form a club?
  5. Will Naz and Jordan get together?
  6. Will Naz be the next Bachelorette?
  7. Will there be a third season?
  8. Are all the girlswho missed out breathing a sigh of relief?
  9. Will Naz have to choose between the two Jordans?
  10. Does anyone care?

Twyford wrong

The Herald reports:

Rampant speculators are cashing in big on Auckland’s property market, with one house sold five times in just nine months.

The humble three-bedroom home in Papakura was repeatedly flipped between February and November last year, its price spiralling from $335,000 to $590,000 – a capital gain of $870 a day.

Two of the transactions were settled on the same day, giving the seller an instant $80,000 profit without ever taking possession.

“This is frenzied activity,” Labour’s housing spokesman, Phil Twyford, told theWeekend Herald. “These people are making massive tax-free gains at the expense of ‘Generation Rent’.”

Last August National introduced a law change so that a property (except your main one) sold within two years of purchase is automatically taxed as income on the gain. This means that they will be paying (probably) 33% on their profits. This incidentialy is massively greater than the 15% capital gains tax Labour had proposed.

So Twyford is wrong – any purchases after 1 October sold within two years are taxed. He is campaigning on a falsehood.

Guest Post: Can Trump Beat Clinton? 20 Reasons

By John Stringer – https://conzervative.wordpress.com

11GOT

None of us – including seasoned American political pundits – predicted Donald J Trump could win the Republican primary. He was “a joke;” I called him “early primary entertainment.”

But he has been a force of nature; a genuine grass-roots phenomenon that has utterly surprised everyone!  Trump beat one of the strongest Republican primary fields EVER. 17 candidates made of: Senators, Governors, a Bush, establishment figures, a brain surgeon etc.

He beat them; he thrashed them; and he did it early and BEFORE he even reached the 1237! amidst MASSIVE speculation of a contested convention and wonks pouring over the maths of 1237 delegates. It was a clean sweep of a talented field (compare the Democrat field).

Trump cleaned up:  He’s a winner! You’re all FIRED!  Boy if ever anyone lived up to his reality TV persona and the ‘back atcha’ demands of The Apprentice (even Celebrity Apprentice). D J Trump has delivered in gold-plated casino spades!

Even if he loses he will always be a Winner. BIG TIME! The Trumps are now American royalty and listening to Donald Jr well there is a dynasty ala Kennedys, Bushs, Clintons.

I can’t really believe it (although I expected him to win): Trump is Presidential Nominee for the GOP! ??

But Can He Now Beat Clinton?

I think he can and probably will

Trump has shackled his wagon to the tide of anti-Establishment and anti-Federal on both the GOP and Democrat sides and in wider America.  His candidacy is a direct reaction to the eight years of Obama and his appeal will draw from untapped sources. He is essentially anti-political correctness and this has growing support amongst the great silent majority who are voting (and why polls are getting predictions so wrong).

Republican registration is way up. Democrat support is down – this will be telling; Clinton assumes the massive 2008 Black vote that came out in support of Obama. She misunderstands that was an Obama vote not necessarily a Democrat vote.

12GOT

The Democrats are divided; the Bern is humiliating Clinton’s assumed support base AMONGST HER OWN PARTY;  beating her unexpectedly in several stares. She sits there presumptive purely on the basis of the gerrymandered Super Pack system! Sanders is going to challenge this; and if he loses; then will he do a Ross Perot?  A third party candidate on the Left?  Hello President Trump!

Clinton has baggage: she voted for the Iraq war; Benghazi; she old school; her husband’s issues with women that reflect on her; Trump has no political baggage.

20 Reasons Trump can beat Clinton:

  1. Trump has defied everyone including the polls and will again
  2. He is not that ‘negative’ against women
  3. Clinton has the support of African-Americans but 20% don’t back Clinton and if Trump even wins some of them he’s close to the Presidency
  4. Hispanics want jobs and Trump is talking jobs
  5. Trumps exit poll demographics are widely spread; his appeal goes across the divides of class and gender and socio-economic and even party affiliation
  6. The campaign has not even begun and he will kill Clinton or she will over play negatives against Trump
  7. Clinton’s negatives are entrenched but Trumps are not; he has room to address and remove them or at least neutralise them; her’s are set
  8. Clinton’s negatives are on honesty and integrity – political killer blows
  9. She has a genuine FBI investigation over her (which is why The Bern stays)
  10. Bernie Sanders is still campaigning hard and will hobble her path to victory
  11. Clinton will campaign traditionally; Trump is unorthodox; fresh and doesn’t follow the establishment rule-book – this will disorient Clinton’s campaign
  12. The Left will now come out with HATE HATE HATE against Trump and will over reach and damage their cause against him
  13. Any Islamic terror will play to Trump’s narrative
  14. Any Mexican drug cartels or immigrant crime issues will play to Trump
  15. Trump cleaned up in a three-horse race with over 60% of the vote in some states that suggests he has MASSIVE popular appeal that the Left and pundits have under-estimated.
  16. The intolerant violent Leftist protest movement against Trump and his supporters at his rallies will swing Middle uncommitted America over to Trump
  17. Trump will hire-in a strong shadow Cabinet that will unify the GOP and its nay-saying Establishment.
  18. His pick for VP will be inspired and swing GOP and Independent voters in behind him.
  19. The more his kids and family speak out the more votes he wins (they just look and sound so wholesome and successful and gorgeous and youthful – everything America loves); the Clinton family doesn’t cut such a smily Hollywood persona (especially with Billy Boys history).  Would Lewinsky endorse Trump?  Ouch!
  20. Trump seems strong against Putin; Mexico; the Chinese; ISIS; Europe; and Clinton is “Obama Term III” and regardless of personal politics this is right up there with American voters who will support Trump on that facet alone even if they hate him in others respects. “Make American Great Again” is an inspired campaign slogan with mass appeal.

Happier Days

13GOT

Watkins says Labour needs a game changer

Stuff reports:

Labour’s danger is being seen to be dwelling too much on a negative like  foreign trusts when the Government is talking up the positives.

That has been the story of the last seven years . Which is why Labour needs a game changer.

At the half way point, the perception that National is cruising to a fourth is starting to cement.

You can see it  in the drooping shoulders on the Labour and Green benches. They’re fighting the fight and no one is listening

I have fairly regular chats with folks from Labour and the Greens. Almost without fail the topics of conversations are what chance there is National will get a 4th term, who will replace Key – and when, and the Labour leadership.

I always say that I think National’s chance of a 4th term is around 60%. That is pretty optimistic as the last fourth term was in 1969! The chances should be less than 20%, so I think 60% is pretty amazing.

Almost without fail the folks from Labour and Greens push back against my 60% prediction and say they think it is 95% or 98% or the like. They can’t see Labour doing well enough to post a serious threat. They are always much more bullish about National’s chances than me.

Only NZ First leader Winston Peters seems capable of disrupting the Government and Key’s narrative.

It’s the classic minor party pendulum swing. While Labour and Little sink, Peters is on the rise. And it’s not just his poll ratings. National’s internal polling said to show Peters’ favourability ratings also improving. For a leader as polarising as Peters that’s a significant shift. And it poses a dilemma for Labour

Embrace Peters and voters would see that a Labour, Greens, NZ First alliance could conceivably form the next Government. Labour needs that to take root to reinvigorate the activists and turn out the centre-Left vote.

Peters is far too long in the tooth to let Labour get away with that one of course. He has so far rebuffed Little’s attempts to cosy up and why wouldn’t he? If Peters is king maker at the next election National is a far more likely proposition.

Peters prefers a two party Government to a three party Government. If he holds the balance of power I hope he chooses Labour and the Greens. However if National is on say 45% and Labour on say 28%, it is hard to see him making the guy who got 28% PM.

Review: Season 6:1 Game of Thrones

By John Stringer https://conzervative.wordpress.com

6:1. Well we did find out that Jon Snow IS REALLY DEAD so that is the demise of a major core character although I still predict he will be “resurrected” as an ice hoard zombie.

1GOT

Review: Season 6:1 Game of Thrones | coNZervative

(Update 26/4: Gee I might be right helped by this season 6 promo meme of Jonny Snow as – wait for it – well a White Walker!  Told ya!)
The big surprise in 6:1 [SPOILER} is that the sexy red witch is REALLY a wizened ancient old crone witch (icky she’s been having magic sex with all and sundry but is obviously under a doppelgänger spell “Look I’m young and perky-breasted!“). That was very cool. Loved her lumpy back bone spine pushing through pasty white skin: this is a great plot-line twist to the story so far. She backed the wrong royal horse in Stannis Baratheon who is now meat on the snows of the North!
I like that His Annoying Arrogant Wannabee Regicide Stannis Baratheon is dead and his army massacred in the snow by the Boltons of the North (House Bolton of the Dreadfort the ruling house of the North whose banner is a flayed man crucified upside down on a cross after Roose Bolton’s quip “In my family we say: A naked man has few secrets; a flayed man, none.” Charming. (K GoT not for the faint-hearted).
There are so many characters in this epic that it is good to excise a few and with Stannis gone well that really cuts out the Baratheon pretenders to the throne as a family line (the Stag’s Head sigil?)  And who better than to end his sorry ‘royal’ days rather royally than [SPOILER}  Brienne of Tarth!  Excellent.  Her knightly execution of Stannis Baratheon was appropriate (but note: we did not ACTUALLY see  her blade sever his nasty Pretenders head – so like so many – is he REALLY despatched?)

Meanwhile in ‘Persian Ottoman’ Dorne: “weak men will no longer rule Dawn!” meaning not “weak” but “men” and this is set to become a realm of treacherous plotting Amazonians (cue GoT skimpy attire and more lesbian love scenes – which we could all do without thanks) resplendent with Keisha Castle-Hugh’s sisters and their phallic warrior weapons (with lots of B&D leather to keep that community transfixed).

2GOT 3GOT

 

The gut-wrenching pathos and full frontal male and female nudity of Queen Cirsei Lanister’s “Walk of Shame” (S5) with that tolling nun bell was great if a not too gratuitous for TV. But now with the murder of her ‘nice’ daughter by the harpies of Dorne (fathered by incest with her twin brother) and the introduction of her 8-foot high Gimp with the swollen bruised face (like something out of Mordor) is Circe set to become an embittered betrayed raging Fury?  I think thee so!  A great counterpart to Daenrys Targarean. Girl Fight!

Arya Stark (‘Needle’ lost in a Stark stack) is very cool as one of the trainee Faceless Gods With No Name Helter Skelter groupees.
4GOT 5GOT
Daenrys meanwhile has wandered off like Little Red Riding Hood again and been kidnapped for raw horse sex with her ex-in-laws the plains Dothraki (yawn; that is an aside we could do without; they should have advanced her destiny plot directly towards the West with her dragons in tow breathing rage and fire. Daenrys is the rightful heir to the Iron Throne so get on with it! She has been denigrated mid-S 5 into 6:1 in to a little girl with her episodes becoming a season of Lost (with her literally lost).
But this may be a twist to unite the Dothraki again with her Eastern slave cities and the Dragons to take on everyone else for the Iron Throne.  Fire v Ice.
It also creates space for Tyrion Lannister (“who always pays his debts”) and one of my favourite Machiavellian characters the bad and ball-less Varys to take over and govern Daenery’s abandoned latest city on her behalf. At last a ‘crown’ for Tyrion.
The Men of the Nights Watch?  Meh. Bunch of manly wimps dressed in furs who are much better in the books and a bit undercooked in the TV series. But hopefully they will unite with The Wildings (now on their side of the wall thanks to the ‘traitor’ Jon Snow) with their cool Snow Giants and fight the White Walkers as the latter give them the “Winter Is Coming” cold shoulder.

Prediction: Jon Snow will unite the Walkers’ Ice Zombie army of Undead with The Wildings and the Nights Watch and House Bolton against Targarean.

The revival of House Stark from near oblivion is a great story arch and a central vein in GoT. Nice to see ‘Reek’ (Theon Greyjoy) redeemed and paired with cuzzy Sansa Stark and Brienne of Tarth. The convergence of the three Stark children together (and is Tyrion really a Lannister or a Stark? What was Sean Bean really up to all those cold nights at Kings Landing as the Kings Hand?) is an inevitable and obvious plot path – but is anything ‘envitable’ in GoT?

Oh and we’re all awaiting the terrible and gruesome death of that really really nasty psycho Ramsay. He’s even worse than Joffrey Lannister so Ramsay’s demise is an anticipation probably coming sometime season 6 we would all hope. he has to kill dad first though. Like Tyrion did.  If there is incest we need some paricide too!

Prediction: Watch for the three Stark children to be re-united with Jon Snow (now dead) and Tyrion; to revive House Stark perhaps with The Wildings and the Men of the Night Watch and the White Walkers in an epic confrontation between Deanerys Taragraen’s dragons and fire empires plus the Dothraki in an almighty Tolkien-esque Battle of the Pelennor Fields.

Prediction2:  Will the love sicj knight errant XYZ gradually turning in to a Stone Man touch daenerys and turn her to stone like those extinct Dragon fossils beneath the crypts of King’s Landing?  I think so

It’s great: I can’t get enough

Below right: Cousins Sansa Stark and Theon Greyjoy (‘Reek’) of Winterfell and the Iron Halls- two branches of the family House Stark re-united (the execution of Sean Bean as Lord Stark season 1 has still not been avenged; or the massacre of his entire family at the treacherous Red Wedding).  I’m rather glad to see ‘Reek’ redeemed; that story arch was pretty ugly and dark (the torture scenes and the psycho mind games reducing a human being to a humiliated shell of humanity – ick: GoT really pushes the envelope). Almost too much.

6GOT 7GOT 

Probably got lots wrong (it’s so complex and myriad-epic) so jump in with corrections and your own predictions.

 

Holt joins Backbenches

Stuff reports:

Political series Back Benches is returning to television screens with a new co-host, Hayley Holt.

Holt, a popular member of the The Crowd Goes Wild team, joined co-host Wallace Chapman for a few episodes of the political debating programme in 2015.

Holt is great on The Crowd Goes Wild, so will do equally well I am sure on Backbenches.

Is Emma Watson part of a dirty seedy industry?

Stuff reports:

Harry Potter star Emma Watson is the latest in a growing list of celebrities implicated in the Panama Papers leak.

The actress was listed as a beneficiary of a company based in the British Virgin Islands, according to The Telegraph.

However, a spokesman said: “Emma receives absolutely no tax or monetary advantages from this offshore company whatsoever – only privacy.”

He said Watson had had her personal safety “jeopardised” by companies publishing her details.

“UK companies are required to publicly publish details of their shareholders and therefore do not give her the necessary anonymity required to protect her personal safety, which has been jeopardised in the past owing to such information being publicly available,” he told The Telegraph.

“Offshore companies do not publish these shareholder details.”

This is a good reminder that there are many legitimate reasons for people to have a foreign trust.

However Andrew Little has said all foreign trusts should be banned as they are part of a dirty and seedy industry.

So by implication he is saying Emma Watson is part of a dirty and seedy industry.

Maybe it is time for Andrew to consider the wisdom of taking a more nuanced position on complex issues, rather than going for the soundbite.

APN and Fairfax merger talks confirmed

NBR reports:

APN News & Media has today confirmed plans to demerge NZME and revealed it is in discussions with Fairfax Media about a potential merger of their New Zealand businesses.

“If completed, the combined company will be a leading New Zealand media business, offering depth of news, sport and entertainment coverage across a diverse mix of channels including print, digital and radio,” an ASX announcement says.

The two entities have been in preliminary discussions about a potential merger, which will be subject to approval by both companies’ boards, shareholders and the Commerce Commission. The merger is expected to be completed by the end of 2016, subject to all necessary approvals.

I suspect Commerce Commission approval will take longer than six months.

Another NBR story reports:

A merger of New Zealand’s two largest media organisations could be approved on a counterfactual basis, despite competition concerns, a leading competition lawyer says. …

Competition lawyer Andy Matthews says while other countries have rules about media ownership to ensure a diversity of views in the media, “New Zealand’s never had that.”

“From a pure competition perspective, what’s going to happen if these guys don’t get together? Will they survive? It would be inappropriate to stop this because this is how industries respond to change,” he says. …

“It’s a highly fragmented market. I would have thought on the face of it a merger wouldn’t be anti-competitive. It’s an industry in crisis. Do you look at newspapers and online news separate or the same? Does the platform even matter anymore?” he asks.

The merger is undesirable, but the status quo may be even more undesirable as without it one or both companies could shrink significantly.

But the merger would also lead to huge job losses. Estimates I have seen suggest perhaps 1,000 or so.

One key issue for the Commerce Commission might be whether the Herald and Stuff websites would merge.On the print side there is almost no competition already. Radio has plenty of competition. But the websites may be the area where they have competition issues.

Also parliamentary reporting may suffer, as if the two offices merge, then you lose the competitive tension of each office trying to develop exclusive stories.

Labour loses another chief press secretary

Stuff reports:

Labour’s chief press secretary and former editor of the Woman’s Weekly, Sarah Stuart, has resigned from Andrew Little’s office.

Stuart will finish in late May and cited “family reasons” as her motivation for leaving.

“I will be sorry to leave but have made this difficult decision for family reasons. I will miss the cut and thrust of Parliament, the talented team in the Leader’s Office and the strength and integrity that Andrew embodies,” she said.

Stuart, whose other former roles included deputy editor of the Sunday Star-Times, the Herald on Sunday, and the head of APN’s regional and daily community newspapers, has also worked in Sydney as a journalist.

With the departure of Stuart, Labour will be onto their seventh chief press secretary in seven and a bit years.

Off memory they have had G J Thompson, Fran Mold, Kris Faafoi, Julian Robins, Simon Cunliffe and Sarah Stuart.

Parliament 11 May 2016

The order paper is here.

Oral Questions 2.00 pm – 3.00 pm

  1. JACQUI DEAN to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the resilience of the New Zealand financial system?
  2. ANDREW LITTLE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statements in the House yesterday?
  3. JAMES SHAW to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?
  4. Dr JIAN YANG to the Minister for Building and Housing: What reports has he received on the number of properties bought and sold by those with tax residency overseas and how do they compare with previous reports?
  5. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Finance: Will his expectation stated in Budget 2015 that unemployment would drop below 5 percent in 2016 be met; if not, why not?
  6. RON MARK to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?
  7. MELISSA LEE to the Minister for Land Information: What did the data, released by Land Information New Zealand, in the Property Transfers and Tax Residency report indicate regarding the tax residency of those buying and selling property in New Zealand?
  8. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister for Building and Housing:Does he stand by his statement in relation to data showing that 1,694 houses were sold into foreign ownership, excluding any bought via trusts or companies, that “the numbers are so small”?
  9. JULIE ANNE GENTER to the Minister of Revenue: Does he agree with the Prime Minister, who said the disclosure and reporting requirements for foreign trusts under IR607 were “extremely broad and deep”?
  10. DENIS O’ROURKE to the Minister for Building and Housing: Does he stand by his statement concerning off-shore buyers pushing up Auckland house prices, “The easiest trick in the book is to create a scapegoat that it’s these foreigners that are a problem”?
  11. Dr SHANE RETI to the Minister of Education: What recent announcements has she made that will increase support to students with special needs?
  12. CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Why does she accept some responsibility as Minster of Education for Hon Bill English’s statement that a lot of Kiwis are “pretty damned hopeless” and “they can’t read and write properly”?

National: Four questions on the NZ financial system, foreign buyers of housing x 2 and special education

Labour: Four questions on PM standing by his statements, unemployment, foreign buyers of housing and education

Greens: Two questions on PM standing by his statements and foreign buyers of housing

NZ First: Two questions on PM standing by his statements and foreign buyers of housing

General Debate 3.00 pm to 3.00 pm

A one hour debate of 12 speeches of five minutes each.

Government Bills 4.00 pm to 6.00 pm and 7.30 pm to 10.00 pm

Te Ture Whenua Māori Bill – first reading

This bill restates and reforms the law relating to Māori land.

  • Introduced: April 2016

The first reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours.

Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill – second reading

This Bill amends the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 to require smoke alarms and insulation in residential rental properties.

  • Introduced: December 2015
  • 1st reading: December 2015, passed unanimously
  • Select Committee report: April 2016, supported with amendments, Greens dissenting

The second reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours.

Health (Protection) Amendment Bill – committee stage

This bill amends the Health Act 1956 to improve the tracing of people who may have an infectious disease, increase the range of infectious diseases that are notifiable. It also bans the provision of commercial artificial UV tanning services to people under 18 years of age

  • Introduced: July 2014
  • 1st reading: November 2014, passed unanimously
  • Select Committee report: May 2015, supported with amendments, Labour, Greens, NZ First dissenting
  • 2nd reading: May 2015, passed unanimously

There is no time limit for the committee stage but it is estimated to be a three hour debate as the bill has two parts and preliminary provisions to debate.

There are two SOPs – one from Annette King to ban sunbed operators entirely, not just from under age clients. Also one from the Minister with minor clarifications.

 

Maori Youth

Trans-Tasman reported:

The reform being pushed through by Tolley is perhaps the most far-reaching undertaken by the Govt and could stand as its greatest legacy if it achieves its goals. Already it has made some headway in improving the lives of Maori children who are more than twice as likely as Pakeha children to grow up in households experiencing hardship, and fare worse in most indicators.

A report by the University of Otago-based Child and Youth Epidemiology Service shows increasing numbers of Maori pre schoolers are getting early childhood education. There’s also been a halving of school suspensions for Maori students, an increase in immunisation rates, fewer young Maori smoking,and falling hospitalisation rates for Maori children for injuries from assault, neglect or maltreatment.

That’s promising.

The report is here. Some extracts:

  • A drop from 2010 to 2013 of Maori children living in relative poverty using the measure of below 60% of the contemporary median income, after housing costs
  • 17% of Maori children in “material hardship” down from 21% in 2011
  • The proportion of Māori new entrants reporting participation in ECE prior to school entry increased, from 83.6% in 2001 to 96.3% in 2013.
  • Suspension rates for Māori students falling from 18.8 per 1,000 in 2000, to 9.1per 1,000 in 2013.
  • Medical admissions with a social gradient in Māori children increased from 2000 to 2001, remained steady through to 2007, increased from 2007 to 2009, remained steady until 2012, and fell from 2012 to 2013 to reach a level similar to that seen in 2001–2007. In contrast, injury admissions with a social gradient fluctuated from year to year in the early 2000s and followed a downward trend from 2006 to 2013.
  • During 2000–2013, Māori children’s admission rates for injuries due to assault, neglect of maltreatment increased from 2002–2003 to 2008–09, and then declined
  • During 2000–2013, Māori young people’s admission rates for injuries due to assault were variable. The rate for 2013 was the lowest in the whole period.

To paraphrase Life of Brian’s “What did the Romans ever do for us except …”, you might ask “What did National ever do for Maori except ….”

Guest Post: NEW ZEALAND’S GREAT TOBACCO DEBATE NOW IN QUANDARY

A guest post by Carrick Graham:

New Zealand has always been a global leader in tobacco control. The 1990 Smokefree Environment’s Act came about due to the leadership of Helen Clark who essentially laid the foundations for the aspirational goal today of New Zealand being Smokefree by 2025.

For the past quarter of a century tobacco control has achieved significant milestones in their efforts against tobacco.

But herein lies a problem. The actual achievement of a Smokefree Aotearoa 2025 goal of having 5% or less of the population smoking has now created a rod for the back of tobacco control.

The purists believe the only way to achieve the goal is for the Government to push through further amendments to the Smokefree Environments Act. They are particularly enthused with the possible introduction of plain-packaging of tobacco products this side of the Tasman.

This desire to introduce another round of regulations seems to be at the expense of ignoring, or even acknowledging low hanging fruits that are currently in plain sight.

Take the review of the Customs and Excise Act that is currently underway. At this very moment, anyone can grow up to 15 kilograms of tobacco (that’s equivalent to 300x 50g RYO pouches) year after year for personal use. That is the equivalent of 300x 50gram pouches of un-taxed and un-labelled roll-your-own.  This provision seems at odds with the objectives of tobacco control and a Smokefree Aotearoa. Yet surprisingly, not a Scooby’s whistle from tobacco control on this issue.

But that’s not the most scandalous element of tobacco control today.

The British Government recently commissioned an independent review of the latest evidence on e-cigarettes and their use to ensure that practitioners, policy makers and the public have the best evidence available. The result was the ‘E-cigarettes: an evidence update’ Report, released in August 2015.

As a result, Public Health England now says “best estimates show e-cigarettes are 95% less harmful to your health than normal cigarettes, and when supported by a smoking cessation service, help most smokers to quit tobacco altogether”.

One of the lead authors of the report was New Zealand’s very own public health academic, Dr Hayden McRobbie.

This report has been supported by credible organisations like Cancer Research UK, the Royal College of Physicians, and the British Lung Foundation. Yet, the likes of ASH New Zealand, Smokefree Coalition, and even the Cancer Society, seemingly refuse to openly discuss what is clearly the new elephant in the room.

Just last week the UK’s Royal College of Physicians – an institution representing 32, 000 doctors and renowned for its work in tobacco control, released a 220 page report Nicotine without smoke: Tobacco harm reduction.

They conclude that: E-cigarettes are not a gateway to smoking (actually they can act as a gateway from smoking) and do not result in normalisation of smoking.

This Royal College of Physicians report received significant global media coverage. In New Zealand it was picked up by the Otago Daily Times and warranted just a fleeting mention in the NZ Herald. Stuff seemed to have missed the story.

It seems some within New Zealand’s tobacco control community cannot bring themselves to openly (or publicly) discuss what are by a country mile, two of the most significant and internationally recognised reports on e-cigarettes ever produced.

Further to this, more than 50 public health researchers recently wrote a ‘Statement from specialists in nicotine science and public health policy’ to Dr Margaret Chan, the Director General of the World Health Organisation.

In this statement these specialists (including eminent New Zealand public health figures Associate Professor Chris Bullen, Dr Murray Laugesen, Dr Hayden McRobbie) said:

“The potential for tobacco harm reduction products to reduce the burden of smoking related disease is very large, and these products could be among the most significant health innovations of the 21st Century – perhaps saving hundreds of millions of lives. The urge to control and suppress them as tobacco products should be resisted and instead regulation that is fit for purpose and designed to realise the potential should be championed by WHO.

We are deeply concerned that the classification of these products as tobacco and their inclusion in the FCTC will do more harm than good, and obstruct efforts to meet the targets to reduce non-communicable disease we are all committed to.”

With Euromonitor forecasting retail sales of e-cigarettes worldwide for 2013 at US$2.5 billion, Wells Fargo estimating that figure will top $10 billion by 2017, and Bloomberg Industries projecting that sales will exceed those of traditional cigarettes by 2047, it is a disruptive technology-driven market that is not going away. 

Clive Bates, a former Director of ASH UK tweeted this week ‘Great thing about NZ is that it is small enough to change quickly, big enough to be a game-changer worldwide’.

To this point, this week New Zealand is to host the world premiere of the documentary ‘A Billion Lives’ at DocEdge Film Festival. The film is about vaping and the role e-cigarettes play in harm reduction and public health.

How the Government responds to this will be very interesting indeed.

Disclosure: Carrick Graham was Corporate Affairs Director for BAT NZ until 2006, when he left to establish Facilitate Communications. He has maintained an interest in the tobacco debate. Facilitates’ clients include retailer interests.

Poor Little

Stuff reports:

On top of the Greenpeace allegations Key also took a swipe at Green Party MP Mojo Mathers, who along with National MP Paul Foster-Bell, has been linked to a foreign trust.

During Question Time Key told Shaw to “just turn around and ask his colleague, Mojo Mathers, (who) has a foreign trust”.

Mathers sought leave in the House to dispute Key’s claims and clarified she was a “beneficiary of a UK-based family trust”.

“It is not a trust that I own, and it is not a foreign trust,” she told the House.

No-one owns a trust. But if it is a trust based in the UK then it is a foreign trust and she is a beneficiary of a foreign trust.

Of course there is nothing at all wrong with that. No-one thinks Mathers has done anything wrong. But Andrew Little is the idiot who has called for all foreign trusts to be banned saying they are of no value. So Key was using Mathers as an example of how stupid it is to claim all foreign trusts are bad.

Labour leader Andrew Little later defended Mathers and said Key’s comments were “dumb” and “totally tasteless”.

“If he was a man he would stand up and apologise, he didn’t do that.”

“She should never have been put in that position. She’s the only deaf member in the House and this is New Zealand sign language week. It was just totally tasteless,” he said.

I had to read this twice to make sure I read it correctly.

Andrew Little seems to be saying either that being deaf as an MP means you can’t be criticised by other MPs (and it wasn’t even criticism), or that during Sign Language Week you can’t criticise an MP if they are deaf.

Does this mean that during Maori Language Week Labour MPs are banned from criticising Hekia Parata and Simon Bridges?

Labour claimed 30% of Auckland houses purchased by Chinese, actual data shows 2.3%

Phil Twyford claimed last year:

Nearly 40 percent of the houses sold in that period went to people of Chinese descent, and as your introduction pointed out, the Chinese New Zealander population in Auckland, according to the most recent census data, is about 9 percent. Now, that is a remarkable discrepancy, and, in my view, it’s simply not plausible to suggest, as many have done in the last couple of years, that the Chinese— ethnic Chinese people who are buying houses in Auckland are all Chinese New Zealanders. It points, I think, to only one possible conclusion, and that is that offshore Chinese investors have a very significant presence in the Auckland real estate market when you consider that Auckland house prices are spiralling out of control at the moment. …

This is an issue about foreign investment, and it doesn’t matter in one sense what the surnames of the buyers are, but if this data shows, and I believe it strongly suggests, that offshore Chinese investors have a major presence, possibly as high as 30 percent of the houses sold by this real estate firm over a three-month period, then that is very significant.

Louise Upston has released actual data. It shows that 4% of Auckland buyers were overseas tax residents and 58% of those 4% were from China which is 2.3% of total Auckland sales.

Phil Twyford should be ashamed of himself for his disgraceful and shoddy data where he failed to differentiate between New Zealanders and foreigners on the basis of their surname. You may have a Chinese sounding surname yet be a 4th generation New Zealander.

The LINZ data is not perfect and they go to great lengths to state its limitations. But the gap between the 30% Twyford was claiming and the 2.3% in the LINZ data is so great that is is preposterous to suggest that Twyford was anywhere near correct.

Stats Chats says:

The LINZ report does a good job explaining the real limitations of `tax residence’ as a criterion, but it’s a lot better than any previous data we’ve had.

I’m looking forward to a Mt Roskill by-election (if Goff wins) where the Labour candidate has to explain to the many Chinese New Zealanders living in Mt Roskill why Labour whipped up Aucklanders to blame them for high property prices.

The data will continue to be updated every three months, so we will be able to see if the levels of purchases by foreign tax residents increases. But for now there is nothing to suggest they are having a big impact on the market, and hence Labour’s policy to ban them is basically worthless, as it would have a miniscule impact on house prices at best. Maybe Labour could focus on real solutions such as increasing the amount of land available, instead of deeming people with Chinese sounding surnames as the problem.

Party donor named in Panama Papers – for the Greens!

Stuff reports:

A Green Party donor has been listed in the database of the Panama Papers documents leak.

Kiwi rich-lister Forbes Herbert Elworthy was named in the offshore leaks documents, associated with a Singapore trust and entities in the British Virgin Islands.

Elworthy donated $15,000 to the Green Party in 2011 during the election campaign.

Now imagine if Mr Elworthy was a donor to National. The Greens would be indignant and decrying Mr Elworthy and saying that National is funded through people who use tax havens and avoid or evade tax, Labour would agree, and the media would all write long columns about how awful a look this is for National and John Key.

Shaw made clear the party were not against Kiwis having trusts overseas, they just wanted more transparency and disclosure on their details.

But Andrew Little says they are of no value and should be banned entirely.

“It’s not whether someone’s got a foreign trust, it’s whether they’re doing anything illegitimate such as tax avoidance, money laundering of anything like that,” he said.

First of all tax avoidance is not illegal. The Greens promote tax avoidance. Their policy to exempt electric cars from fringe benefit tax would lead to massive tax avoidance. They think that is okay so long as it tax avoidance for something they approve of.

Diversion

The Herald reports:

The blogger who was infamously hacked and then exposed in Dirty Politics has himself admitted hiring someone to illegally access the computer files of opponents.

Whale Oil’s Cameron Slater has been granted diversion by police for attempting to hire Ben Rachinger for $5000 to get into the left wing “The Standard” blog. Instead of being convicted and sentenced, he has arranged to do 40 hours work for the children’s charity Kidscan.

Judge Richard McIlraith said: “He has accepted his guilt and embarked upon a programme of diversion to address that.”

Hacking is wrong – it is both illegal and morally indefensible. Cameron was wrong to agree to pay Ben Rachinger money to hack The Standard. As the Judge says he has accepted in court he was wrong, and done community service as diversion.

But while Cameron was wrong, he was taken advantage of by a guy who lied constantly to Cameron and fed him months and months of lies. He took advantage of Cameron’s desire to find out who hacked him, and convinced Cameron that he could prove various people were behind the hack on him – if he in turn got paid to hack them. Cameron should have reported Rachinger to the Police rather than agree to pay him. Rachinger is facing his own trial for his actions, so hence I can’t comment in depth on them.

Cameron has blogged his version of what happened here.

Hopefully there has been lessons learnt from this by Cameron and others. As someone whose privacy has been breached by hackers, I am very anti hacking. I do have to try and contain myself though when Nicky Hager complains that his privacy got breached when Police were searching for Rawshark’s identity as of course Nicky Hager has just spent weeks working with NZ media to breach the privacy of hundreds of New Zealanders who have broken no laws, but just used a law firm that got hacked.

$39 million more for Pharmac

Jonathan Coleman announced:

An extra $39 million will be invested in 2016/17 to enable Pharmac to provide more New Zealanders with access to new medicines, Health Minister Jonathan Coleman says.

“Pharmac’s model for increasing subsidised medicines and treatments for New Zealanders is world class,” Dr Coleman says.

“This funding boost in Budget 2016 – an extra $124 million over four years -will mean that Pharmac can further increase access to new medicines, benefiting more New Zealanders.

“On top of the Government’s extra $39 million investment in Pharmac in 2016/17, $11 million will be injected into Pharmac’s annual budget by DHBs.

“Pharmac’s budget for 2016/17 will be a record $850 million – this means the Government has increased Pharmac’s budget by $200 million since 2008.”

Also NZ City reports:

Pharmac says the money will allow it to look at seven new drugs, including Bristol Myers Squibb’s Opdivo, a treatment for advanced melanoma where New Zealand now has the highest rate in the world.

Although Pharmac has only been looking at the drug since March, it’s clinical data indicated more certain survival data, chief executive Steffan Crausaz says.

It costs about $7800 to treat a patient with Opdivo over a fortnight.

He would not say whether it was cheaper than rival, Merck’s Keytruda, which costs around $200,000 a year for each patient.

The government has been under pressure to fund an advanced melanoma treatment and a petition seeking funding for Keytruda drew 54,000 signatures.

There will be a consultation period, but the board could make its decisions by July.

Mr Crausaz believes that despite vocal support for Keytruda, people will be optimistic about Opdivo.

Studies showed 73 per cent of patients were alive after one year’s treatment, compared to 42 per cent with the current treatment.

Andrew Little wanted to over-ride Pharmac’s decision making, and instruct them to fund Keytruda. This shows why politicians should not be involved in such decisions. Little would have forced Pharmac to fund a drug far less effective than the one actually funded – basically because the drug company behind Keytruda was running a PR campaign to get funding for their drug.

Mediaworks banned from Reserve Bank media conferences

The Herald reports:

The Reserve Bank has banned MediaWorks from its media conferences until further notice as punishment for its journalists leaking sensitive market information from the Official Cash Rate cut decision in March. …

An advisory from the bank says representatives “from Mediaworks news outlets are excluded from Reserve Bank media conferences until further notice” as a result of the March 10 leak.

That is appropriate. The exclusion should not last forever, but there should be some consequences for their breach of the terms of the media lockup.

It would have been better for the Reserve Bank not to scrap the lock ups, but just exclude Mediaworks from them (as they have now done for media conferences).

It occurs to me that the best “punishment” for the serious breach by Mediaworks would have been for Treasury to exclude Mediaworks staff from the Budget lockup. Not attending a Reserve Bank media conference or lock up is a very very minor thing. But if you were excluded from the Budget lockup, you’d be massively disadvantaged as all the other media would have had two hours head start to write their stories. Excluding from one Budget lockup would be sufficient to get the message across about consequences.

Guest Post: David Garrett – Plea Bargaining in New Zealand – a primer

A guest post by David Garrett:

Introduction

The murder – and that is undoubtedly what it was – of three year old Moko Rangitoheriri has dragged the system of state initiated plea bargaining into the light. Over a period of weeks, Tania Shailer and her boyfriend David Haerewa bashed, stomped, strangled and kicked little Moko to death. His injuries were so bad that his mother had trouble recognizing him, and the pathologist had difficulty determining which of his many life threatening injuries had actually killed the little boy.

Shailer and her scumbag boyfriend were quite rightly charged with murder under a section of the Crimes Act which deems intent to kill  to be present  where life threatening injuries have been inflicted, and the defendants are reckless as to whether death will result.  Inexplicably, a sleazy plea bargaining deal was done under which the charges against Moko’s killers were reduced from murder to manslaughter. How could that have happened?

History

Although it has never been publicized, plea bargaining has been a reality in New Zealand for at least the last 25 years or so.  The major change in recent times is that the initiative for the negotiations aimed at agreeing on a lesser charge a defendant will plead guilty to may now come from the Crown as well as from  the defence. Some defence barristers are of the view that the Crown now has, because of funding changes, (see below) an incentive to initiate these kinds of deals, whereas in the past,  they resisted them.

Historically,  plea bargaining negotiations were initiated by the defence. Let’s consider a fact situation from a real case which I am familiar with. Two men hired a taxi, ostensibly to take them from one town in Taranaki to another. Once the cab was out of town, the men demanded that the driver hand over his money, and give them the car. He resisted both demands. One offender then produced a hammer, and while saying “I’m gunna kill you, you cunt”, bashed the driver until the cab ran off the road. The men severely beat the driver, stole the cab, and left the driver for dead. They were quickly apprehended, and charged  inter alia with attempted murder. 

Once lawyers had been instructed, negotiations were initiated with the police and Crown Solicitor. I am told that attempted murder is a difficult charge to prove (the element of intent being the difficulty) even when, as in this case, clear threats to kill had been made by at least one offender. In the event, the attempted murder charges against the pair were withdrawn, and both pleaded guilty to  lesser charges.

It is important – and perhaps not easy – for lay people to understand that when the defence  attempts to get charges reduced, they are simply doing the job which ethics demands of them. Lawyers who do criminal defence work are committed to getting the best possible deal for their clients – both in terms of charge and sentence – and to testing the police/Crown case thoroughly. Although many may find it distasteful, it is wrong to criticize defence lawyers for initiating these discussions. They are simply doing their job.

Funding of prosecutions

Traditionally, the Crown solicitor in any particular area of the country had complete discretion whether to proceed with a prosecution of the original charge he had laid, or to negotiate with the defence, if they  proposed a lesser charge to which the defendant(s) would plead guilty. This system created an incentive for prosecutors to take cases to trial – they were paid per day  of court time. Perhaps this also partly explains why murder trials which fifty years ago would be completed in a week, now take three or four, or even longer. The Crown didn’t care how long the trial took – they got paid for every day of the trial.

As a result of the above system, having the Crown Warrant for any particular area was widely seen as a licence to print money – crime is always going to be with us, and a hard arse prosecutor could theoretically take every case to trial, even when it was likely that  the evidence would not support the charge being prosecuted. Given that most serious offenders are on legal aid, the result of the old system was an ever growing blowout in the legal aid bill.

Changes to the sytem were introduced three years ago. The main change was that rather than the Crown Solicitor – and his or her juniors – being paid for every day they spent in court, they are now “bulk funded.” In other words, every Crown Solicitor is given a sum of taxpayers money annually which they spend on the prosecutions in their district. The amount they are paid remains the same, whether 100% of cases go to trial or only 10%, with the other 90% resulting in  negotiated guilty pleas to a lesser charge or charges.

This has apparently created a reverse incentive from the old system: it is now very much in the Crown’s interest to “plead down” cases, and save the $1-5 million that a major trial may cost. That means that for those cases which do  proceed to trial, the Crown Solicitor is effectively getting a much higher hourly rate than if he or she had taken every case – or even most of them – to trial.

In addition to bulk funding, the second major change is that plea bargain negotiations may now be initiated either  by the defence or  the Crown. It appears that in Moko’s case, the negotiations were initiated by the Crown Solicitor at Rotorua, although I am unable to confirm that. As we will see, experienced defence barristers cannot understand why this case was plead down.

Reform

It is acknowledged that the old  system – under which Crown Solicitors could take any and every case to trial –  created an incentive to try more cases for longer than perhaps justice would demand. It now seems clear however, that we have created the opposite incentive – one that rewards Crown Solicitors for disposing of cases by way of plea bargain where they feel so inclined – regardless of the legal merits or the justice of the outcome.

I have spoken to two senior defence barristers about this present case. Both are bewildered by the decision to downgrade the charges – one said that if the reported facts are correct, he would not even have bothered trying to get the charges reduced for these two killers.

It is clear that the reform of the system which had led to the legal aid budget blowout has created the unintended consequence of giving Crown lawyers an incentive to avoid trials where justice demands that a trial ought to have taken place, and therefore  allow  a  jury to  decide whether the facts support a verdict of murder or manslaughter. As with my criminal barrister colleagues, I am very firmly of the view that this case is one where the defendants were properly charged with murder, and where no plea bargain ought to have been made.

That said, it is clearly not an option to simply revert to the old system which reversed the incentive, and gave Crown Solicitors a licence to print money.  One simple and effective solution would perhaps be  to require Judges to approve plea bargaining deals  which involved murder –  either all murders, or just those where children are victims. That is the arrangement in a number of American jurisdictions – if the Judge doesn’t like the deal, there is a trial on the originally laid charge.

It is important to understand that cases like this will be happening all over the country every day. It is only due to good fortune – and in fairness some good journalism – which has led to this particular case, and the system which has allowed it to happen, to be dragged into the light.

Once again flag confusion strikes

Parliament 10 May 2016

The order paper is here.

Oral Questions 2.00 pm – 3.00 pm

  1. ANDREW LITTLE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statement, “There’s actually quite legitimate business in New Zealand for servicing foreign trusts”?
  2. JAMES SHAW to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?
  3. ALASTAIR SCOTT to the Minister of Finance: What recent reports has he received on the state of the Crown accounts ahead of Budget 2016?
  4. RON MARK to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?
  5. ALFRED NGARO to the Minister for Social Housing: What support will Budget 2016 provide for people in need of emergency housing?
  6. Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Health: What is the total amount of efficiencies since 2011/12 made by the 20 district health boards and how much have they made for the February year to date?
  7. JULIE ANNE GENTER to the Minister of Revenue: Does he stand by his statement, “these are the facts: there is no tax avoidance or evasion in New Zealand in respect of foreign trusts … There is no wealth hidden in New Zealand with these foreign trusts”?
  8. MAUREEN PUGH to the Minister for Communications: What recent announcements has she made on progress of the Government’s Ultra-Fast Broadband programme?
  9. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by his statement made in Budget 2015 that “the unemployment rate is expected to fall below 5% in 2016”?
  10. BARBARA KURIGER to the Minister of Education: What recent announcements has she made on Communities of Learning?
  11. Dr MEGAN WOODS to the Minister responsible for the Earthquake Commission: Has EQC’s position that it will reinstate earthquake damage to a condition substantially the same as “when new” been applied to every home repaired in the Canterbury Home Repair Programme; if so, why does the EQC customer guide state that customers’ homes will be returned to a “pre-earthquake state”?
  12. MAHESH BINDRA to the Minister of Corrections: Does she have confidence in the Department of Corrections’ ability to keep both staff and prisoners safe?

National: Four questions on the surplus, emergency housing, broadband and education

Labour: Four questions on foreign trusts, health efficiencies, unemployment and EQC

Greens: Two questions on PM standing by his statements and foreign trusts

NZ First: Two questions on PM standing by his statements and corrections

Government Bills 3.00 pm to 6.00 pm and 7.30 pm to 10.00 pm

Taxation (Residential Land Withholding Tax, GST on Online Services, and Student Loans) Bill – third reading

This bill allows sharing of information between the Inland Revenue Department and the Australian Taxation Office in relation to New Zealand student loan borrowers residing in Australia; proposes a new residential land withholding tax to act as a collection mechanism for the bright-line test; and provides for the collection of GST on cross-border services and intangibles, including internet downloads and online services.

  • Introduced: November 2015
  • 1st reading: December 2015, passed 109 to 12, NZ First opposed
  • SC report: March 2016, supported unanimously with amendments
  • 2nd reading: March 2016, passed 108 to 12 with NZ First opposed
  • Committee of the whole House: March 2016,

The third reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours. There are three speeches remaining.

Social Security Legislation Rewrite Bill – first reading

This bill repeals and replaces the Social Security Act 1964 and the Social Welfare (Reciprocity Agreements, and New Zealand Artificial Limb Service) to enhance clarity, coherency, and consistency.

  • Introduced March 2016

The first reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours.

Building (Earthquake-prone Buildings) Amendment Bill – third reading continued

The bill proposes amendments to the Building Act 2004 to improve the system for managing earthquake-prone buildings.

  • Introduced: December 2013
  • 1st reading: March 2014, passed 106 to 14 with Greens opposed
  • Select Committee report: September 2015, supported unanimously with amendments
  • 2nd reading: March 2016, passed 120 to 1 with ACT opposed

The third reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours. There are 11 speeches remaining.

New Zealand Public Health and Disability (Southern DHB) Elections Bill – committee stage

This bill exempts the Southern District Health Board from the 2016 triennial general election as it will be governed by a commissioner until the 2019 triennial general election.

  • Introduced: December 2015
  • 1st reading: December 2015, passed 95 to 26 with Greens and NZ First opposed
  • SC report: April 2016, supported without amendment and without dissent
  • 2nd reading: May 2016, passed 95 to 26 with Greens and NZ First opposed

There is no time limit for the committee stage but it is estimated to be a two hour debate as the bill has one clause and preliminary provisions to debate.

 

Soda sales soar in Mexico after sugar tax!

The WSJ reports:

Sales of soda are climbing two years after Mexico imposed a roughly 10% tax on sugary drinks …

Purchases, however, are rising in Mexico after an initial drop, making the country a key-growth market again for soda giants Coca-Cola Co. and PepsiCo Inc.

Underscoring the resiliency of sugary drinks, the tax of one peso per liter has raised more than $2 billion since January 2014, about a third more than the government expected.

The tax data is the best proxy for sales. So the sugar tax has raised lots of money but not decreased sales, let alone decreased obesity.

While that public-health campaign is long gone, soda makers continue to advertise their products heavily and say it is unfair to single out something representing less than 10% of daily caloric intake.

In NZ they are just 1.8% of daily calories yet the tax and tax brigade insist a tax on soda drinks would reduce obesity. It would be like trying to reduce alcohol consumption by only taxing vodka.

Coca-Cola Femsa SAB, the country’s largest Coke bottler, said last Wednesday that its Mexican soda volumes rose 5.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier. Arca Continental SAB, the No. 2 Coke bottler, reported soda volumes surged 11%.

The turnaround began last year, when Mexican soda-industry volume rose 0.5% after falling 1.9% in 2014, said data service Canadean.

So as is often the case a small initial impact, that then disappears and reverses.

Antisoda groups aren’t ready to declare the tax a failure and say sales got a boost from unusually warm weather.

Blame climate change!

Even the initial downturn only lowered the average Mexican’s daily caloric intake by 6 to 7 calories, or 0.2%, according to the study.

That is equal to around two extra minutes of walking per day. Yes, seriously.

Labour List MPs may fear 2017

In 2014 Labour got only five List MPs. Andrew Little only got in on special votes.

They are polling well below the level they were at three years ago. They normally lose support once an election campaign starts as minor parties get more attention. And already Winston is picking up support at their expense.

So at this stage it would be a brave person to predict they will lift their party vote from 2014, and hence their total number of MPs from 32.

However it is quite possible they may pick up two or three electorate seats due to retirements in National etc. They picked up five electorate seats in 2014 despite a drop in party vote. They’ve got some candidates who did fairly well in 2014 (and 2011) and may win if they stand again.

While this is good news for those electorate candidates, it is bad news for Labour List MPs. This means that if they don’t lift their party vote from 2014, they may get only one or two List MPs.

And their problem is that the Leader is a List MP. Also Annette King and Trevor Mallard are likely to go list only for 2017. This means that David Parker, Jacinda Ardern and Sue Moroney could miss out, let alone Labour getting any new MPs on the list.

Ironically if they lost Ardern, this could benefit Little as she is probably the only one who could beat him if they lose the next election. If she goes, then he will probably get to try again in 2020.