Labour’s support falls to half of National’s

May 17th, 2008 at 8:42 am by David Farrar

The huge 27% gap in this morning’s Fairfax poll suggests that the electorate have not just taken the phone off the hook for Labour, but they have pulled it out of the wall, thrown it in a furnace and scattered the ashes out at sea.

One has to go back 18 years to find the last time a Government was 27% behind – late 1990.

And having the PM trail the Opposition Leader by 17% has never occurred before in a NZ poll.

Also noticeable is the first poll to have NZ First at 5%. It may just be a blip or it may suggest the start of a repeat of 2002, where Labour this time loses support to minor parties.

The total number of seats on this poll would be

  1. National 68
  2. Labour 35
  3. Green 7
  4. NZ First 6
  5. Maori Party 6
  6. ACT 1
  7. United 1
  8. Progressive 1

This would have Labour losing 15 MPs, going from 50 to 35. So who would be lost? Well first what seats would they be left with. If one assumes the electorate vote would also be 27% apart, then you have them also losing 17 electorate seats (including two to Maori Party) – retaining only Tamaki Makaurau (Mahuta), Mangere (WIlliams), Manukau East (Robertson), Manurewa (Hawkins), Mt Albert (Clark), Rongotai (King), Christchurch East (Dalziel), Te Atatu (Carter), New Lynn (Cunliffe), Christchurch Central (Burns), Mt Roskill (Goff), Dunedin South (Curran), Dunedin North (Hodgson) and Rimutaka (Hipkins).

With new candidates in Rimutaka, Dunedin South and Christchurch Central – even they could be vulnerable. But anyway if they hold 14 electorates, they will have 21 List MPs. Now we don’t know the list for 2008, but if we use the 2005 list that gives us an indicator, removing known retirements.

The 21 List MPs would be Cullen, Horomia, Mallard, Dyson, Ririruni, Burton, Tizard, Laban, Barker, Okeroa, Choudhary, Jones, Gosche, Gallagher, Chadwick, Hughes, Street, Parker, Fairbrother, Hereora and Pillay.

MPs who would miss out (if list ranked in same order) are: Mackey, Moroney, Fenton, Chauvel, Soper, and Wall plus those who were not on the list such as O’Connor, Duyhoven, and Cosgrove. And no new blood except maybe Burns, Curran and Hipkins – and none of those seats would definitely be safe with a 27% margin.

The poll suggests tax cuts are a major issue for many voters, and Labour’s refusal to deliver tax cuts despite surpluses per capita amongst the highest in the world is hurting them. This week will not just be too little, but also far too late. It is a deserved response for being so ideologically oppossed to tax cuts,, and even worse promising them in 2005 and cancelling them in 2007.

It is hard to see how Labour can pull back the gap. Their focus may need to shift on how to minimise the loss and still get some new MPs in. One thing they can do is to make it very clear that even if re-elected, this is Michael Cullen’s last budget. They will not win back support by campaigning for Michael Cullen to deliver a 10th, 11th and 12th budget.

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59 Responses to “Labour’s support falls to half of National’s”

  1. dad4justice (8,238 comments) says:

    Great news which has made my day :-)

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  2. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    Cullen has already hinted at that. I think it was Barry Soper who mentioned on the radio on Thursday some throw-away line like “good luck Trevor” that Cullen made when Soper asked him about his next budget.

    I’m sure there will be a re-ranking of the list, and I would be surprised if Chauvel, Wall, Moroney and Fenton weren’t higher. If I were Russell Fairbrother I would be planning for a return to law. I’d also be surprised if Burton survives.

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  3. Monty (978 comments) says:

    My kids have been wondering why I am so excited this morning – panic is well and truely setting into the rank and file Labour. NZ are about to punish this corrupt and tired and desperate Government for taking everything for 9 years to fund their social programs.

    Labour are exposed and they are deservedly 27 points behind and National. I can see them now slipping to 25% in at least one poll before the elction. More importantly the Country is now accepting that National can have a majority rule come the election

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  4. goodgod (1,348 comments) says:

    They’ll be kicking themselves they chose a Kenny Rodgers song over a Foo Fighters one now. Don’t they listen to their man at the Herald: John boy Armstrong? It was generation Y they had to target, not the baby boomers!

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  5. rupert (8 comments) says:

    Whats Labour’s best approach from here on in?

    1) Deliver the budget, pass the budget legislation and then immediately declare the election date, hoping like hell that the electorate buys whats in the budget.
    2) Keep attacking National, looking more and more desperate as they do so, and go for a conventional election date hoping to get something to stick?
    3) Go for the latest possible election date, hoping like mad that something happens to turn their fortunes?
    4) Start exerting real pressure on the Reserve Bank, openly calling for interest rates cut and starting to attack Bollard for not running Reserve Bank properly using normal Labour attack tactics, hoping the electorate believes them and can withstand the criticism for interfering.

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  6. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    rupert – you missed one

    Pass immediate legislation declaring Helen Clark President for Life, with the support of the Greens, NZ First and the Maori Party, all of whom will be handsomly compensated. Interesting that Clark was in South Korea yesterday – has she planned a trip North to meet Winston’s mate Kim?

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  7. Michaels (1,318 comments) says:

    Certainly put a serious smile on my face this morning. However what is it with that bloody Winston First?? How did he slime his way back???

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  8. Patrick Starr (3,674 comments) says:

    Fantastic, but like 1990 the Nats don’t have to do anything except watch the left self-destruct.
    Hopefully this will give Key the confidence to roll out some ‘proper’ National policy, instead of some of the ‘safe’ stuff he’s been inclined to do so far

    Are you talking opinion polls DPF? (“18 years to find the last time a Government was 27% behind – late 1990″) 1990 results in the great days of no MMP were; Nats 67 seats & 47.8% of the vote. Labour 29 seats and 35%

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  9. MajorBloodnok (361 comments) says:

    “Diddums”

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  10. peterwn (3,276 comments) says:

    Someone made the comment on another item (it was off-topic in response to an off topic comment of mine) that what people are really wanting is a ‘Labour lite’ government. Fair comment. The implication is that John Key and co are throwing away traditional National philosophies and policies. However I do not consider that National’s constitution requires the party to adopt and continue ‘right wing’ policies. It wants to encourage individual achievement, self sufficiency, national pride and similar goals, but is not bound to encourage and support big business, monopolies, etc. IMO National should give the finger to the likes of Roger Kerr and his useless Business Round Table.

    ‘Labour lite’ type policies do actually fit within such a framework, and if this is what is needed to woo voters, then so be it. The objective of the party is to get into power and the leadership hence owes it to the party’s elector stakeholders to achieve this,

    National’s aim should be always an absolute majority so it can govern efficiently and without the distraction of pandering to minor parties. National has the inherent flexibility to acheve this. Labour will always have entrenched stakeholders, hence serious limitations on available policies, such that it is never likely to achieve an absolute majority, and would always be dependent on minor parties to govern.

    Despite this, polls are one thing, election victory is another – National cannot afford to sit on its backside. This goes for candidates, party members, party supportors (including too scared stiff to show their heads lest they are the victims of vindictive retaliation by Labour and the presene executive government), and those who want to see Labour out on its neck and Winston Peters sidelined.

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  11. Lindsay Addie (1,529 comments) says:

    Who remembers Cullen’s infamous quote “We won, you lost eat that”?. Cannot wait to see those words rammed straight down his throat. :razz:

    As others have mentioned with Labour if they’re not careful they will be left with a bunch of has-beens and failed socialists for MP’s and no new blood at all as happened to the Nats in 2002-2005. If that happens then the opposition benches is about as much fun as floating around amongst the turds at the sewage farm (perhaps the best place for socialists!). :wink:

    The Nats need to now show that they are really a Government in waiting and also Key has to show once the campaign actually starts that he can throw a knock out punch and not fart around like Obama has. Politics is a blood sport and winning isn’t achieved by sleep walking to the finish line.

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  12. emmess (1,428 comments) says:

    >>Are you talking opinion polls DPF? (”18 years to find the last time a Government was 27% behind – late 1990″) 1990 results in the great days of no MMP were; Nats 67 seats & 47.8% of the vote. Labour 29 seats and 35%

    This poll back in ’90 was taken was before Palmer was rolled by Moore.
    I am sure that fact will be noted, except luckily? for Clark they don’t have a Mike Moore these days.

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  13. metcalph (1,430 comments) says:

    the electorate have not just taken the phone off the hook for Labour, but they have pulled it out of the wall, thrown it in a furnace and scattered the ashes out at sea

    as well as clearfelling every telephone pole for miles around.

    [DPF: Heh an excellent addition]

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  14. Doug (410 comments) says:

    The Sub Standard must be redundant by now, No one listening.

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  15. Ross Miller (1,704 comments) says:

    OMG … On David’s calculation of Labour MPs likely to make it back on the List I see Choudhary’s and Tizard’s name. Doesn’t that just encapsulate everything that is wrong and sad with Labour. If these two represent their best and brightest then Labour deserves its plumetting poll ratings.

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  16. Neil (588 comments) says:

    Looks grim for Labour. Ignore the margin, the trend is inexorable. People are expecting a change of government.
    Experience tells me that National will have too many MP’s not a good thing. Remember 1990 with people like Gilbert Myles,Cam Campion,Michael Laws and Hamish McIntyre. I would much rather see ACT pick up some of that vote for some of their more able candidates and keep out fringe “nutters” from the National Party.
    More weeks like the last for Labour would see this trend eat into hard core Labour, who would probably not vote.
    I know Helen Clark was overseas, but I did have a little sympathy for Michael Cullen in the house and at the pre-budget speech in Christchurch. Clark always seems to dodge the **** but as I have always believed when she comes down there will be a dreadful Labour party mess. Clark deserves all she gets !

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  17. pdm (844 comments) says:

    Based on your list of the 21 remaining Labour MP’s what do we have to do to get rid of Barker and Fairbrother. Thrashed in 2005 and fascing annihilation in the elctorates this coming election after the HBDHB fiasco. they will likely remain in Parliament.

    There is something wrong with the system somewhere.

    As an aside on the HBDHB I see in todays DomPost that Ngahiwi Tomoana and Ian Brown (ex Northland DHB) have been appointed by Sir John Anderson as Deputy Commissioners – more Labour lackeys I think. However, I am open to correction on that even though it smells very suspicious. I don’t know either but have heard Ngahiwi Tomoana on the radio and read articles he has written for the local paper and I would have more confidence in any one of the sacked board members ahead of him.

    [DPF: If Labour are sensible they will put some new blood on the list ahead of current MPs, so their 2008 rankings may differ from 2005]

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  18. davidp (3,581 comments) says:

    Isn’t Philip Field in court in November? Any half way decent defence lawyer is going to have Clark and the various ministers of immigration on the stand, asking them what they knew, when, and why they didn’t do anything about his corruption. They’ll be asking Clark why she set the inquiry terms in a way that were designed not to uncover what Field was up to, and did that indicate that she knew exactly what he was doing and wanted to cover it up. Because she is under oath, she’ll have to tell the truth.

    I can’t imagine the Labour Government will want that appearing on the news a few days before the election. So I’m guessing that they’ll go to the polls early. Which means we’re three or, at most, four months from the poll. The parties should be in full campaign mode by now, IMHO.

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  19. Frank (320 comments) says:

    Needed in Parliament is integrity and transparency. Name one present Member of Parliament with these qualities?

    This will give you some idea of the caliber of present members

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  20. Simon (728 comments) says:

    Helen Clark out greatest PM ever (and now champion of the earth!!) will turn this around.

    How can a champion of the earth be behind a rich prick who deals with something as dirty as money? Money eww.

    Another 10% petrol tax to save mother gaia will help you all to love Helen.

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  21. democracymum (648 comments) says:

    Let’s not get ahead of ourselves!

    As things get uglier for Labour – the microscope will go on John Key.

    It worked for them with Brash – and that’s what they will be putting all their evil efforts into.

    The best form of defence is attack.

    And Labour have a Phd in nastiness!

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  22. radvad (767 comments) says:

    Poor Helen. She is being sliced and diced by a rich prick empty space.
    Suck. It. Up.

    This government has ridden a prolonged economic boom into the ground. History will not view them kindly.

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  23. Murray (8,847 comments) says:

    Where’s chronic. ghostwhowanks and wodga the gnome?

    We need them to explain to us why were are all of substandard intelligence and how only the interlekshul elite are fit to govern us. Help us Team Supersocialist Heros… where are you???

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  24. peterwn (3,276 comments) says:

    davidp

    As far as I know a previous Labour immigration minister (David Cunliffe) is facing a deposition hearing soon concerning his role in immigration matters, having failed to have the charges thrown out at the pre-deposition stage.

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  25. Barnsley Bill (983 comments) says:

    They’ll be along to deny, distract and denigrate just as soon as the strategy has been communicated to them Murray. I hope they do not rejig the list David. We certainly need people of the calibre of Tizard and Choudray on Labours list.
    Although I would expect an ethnic chinese fairly high up with all the cash that community has been donating to harry and her team. And does anybody honestly expect Clark to allow her special friend Tizard to be put at risk.
    If we have learnt only one thing about clark it is that she always looks after the inner team.

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  26. big bruv (13,929 comments) says:

    While nobody wants to see the end of Clark more than I this poll is a bloody bad result, what the public are actually saying is that they want Labour lite, I wonder how the polls would look if Key had the balls to be leading the National party and not some soft cock center left party.

    We have become a nation of bludgers and a nation who has no personal responsibility, the only saving grace is that perhaps (and it is a BIG perhaps) once Key does take control he will start slowly moving back to the policies of a real National party.

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  27. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    democracymum said “As things get uglier for Labour – the microscope will go on John Key.”

    Have you been to The Standard lately? The first two threads there at the moment are about California legalsing gay marriage (and quoting John Key’s views on the civil union legislation), and about Bill Ralston, alleging that his company provides media training to John Key.

    However, there has not been one single thread this week about the undisclosed Toll loan buy-back, about Immigration or Mary Anne Thompson, and today, as yet, about the Fairfax-Nielsen poll result. Which pretty much says it all, doesn’t it!

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  28. Mr Dennis (348 comments) says:

    This is a good poll on the face of it, but certainly far from desirable. With Nationals current watered down Labour policies this poll would offer little change, if anything it could be worse as we would have one party in with a clear majority, who could ignore the minor parties completely if they liked.

    Only 1 seat to Act is a disaster, we need minor parties like that to keep National on their toes.

    I don’t think this poll shows people actually want “Labour lite”. I think it means people want a change, National is the change everyone has traditionally chosen, and they don’t bother to read the detail of their policies. Most of the country isn’t reading the blogs and watching politics. Most of the country just gets annoyed at the price of food and fuel, and a few particular issues of concern to them personally, hears the odd thing on the news about politics, and makes their decision from that.

    It is our job (the people interested in politics) to make sure that the rest of the country understands what is actually on offer, so they can make informed choices.

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  29. Mr Dennis (348 comments) says:

    Actually, that Fairfax poll lists Destiny NZ as an option. Destiny NZ was deregistered last year, no longer exists and is not contesting this election. Its successor The Family Party is not an option however. What is up with that? Has Fairfax not updated the party names in their poll questions since the last election?

    [DPF: I suspect you will find they do not offer any names at all, but merely record responses]

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  30. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Only 1 seat to Act is a disaster”

    Too true.. that’s what happens when you get tangled up with all of that “liberal” bullshit. Small government and low taxes is the message ACT should be pushing, but like National, they’re too clogged up with pseudo liberal dipshits who rant and rave about homosexual marriage and party pills and the rest of that inconsequential bullshit but just don’t know what is important to the man in the street.

    ACT- First vote winner- Take all taxes off petrol other than GST.

    Second vote winner- reduce GST to 5% and repudiate all taxes and policy associated with climate change myth.

    Third vote winner- Make car ownership less onerous.

    Fourth vote winner- Education vouchers- not the best solution, but the death grip the left have on the education system must be broken (if democracy and liberty are to survive).

    Fifth vote winner- Abolish Waitangi Tribunal, remove all racist language from legislation, affirm that government and law is colour blind.

    Sixth vote winner- Declare pride in traditional European culture and values, those qualities that have in the past built countries that all other cultures have flocked to.

    Seventh vote winner- Entire and complete repudiation of the concept of political correctness

    Eighth vote winner- Reduce number of politicians to forty and return to FPP voting.

    Final but most important vote winner- stop listening to whining out of touch PC pseudo liberals.

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  31. Bogusnews (474 comments) says:

    To a certain extent I was a little pleased with the average NZ’er in the last election. In spite of the fact that the good economic times were still rolling (or at least appeared to be), the media were doing everything possible to crucify Brash, were deliberately ignoring important information (such as the doubling of hospital waiting lists, closing of schools all over the country etc) – yet in spite of all that, Labour barely scraped back into power.

    I always thought this time around would be their day of reckoning. The economy has turned south, the media have a smorgasbord of corruption and scandals with Labour to choose from and Labour can no longer with any credibility blame National for our problems.

    Last election, the polls showed that most NZ’ers thought National’s simple tax cut approach was better than the stupid WFF policy, but with the good times were prepared to give Cullen benefit of the doubt about interest rate rises and inflation. But dear or dear, the very problems he predicted would come with National’s tax cuts have happened with Labour. I think this is one of the reasons people simply don’t want to listen any more.

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  32. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    peterwn Says:
    “National’s aim should be always an absolute majority so it can govern efficiently and without the distraction of pandering to minor parties. National has the inherent flexibility to acheve this. Labour will always have entrenched stakeholders, hence serious limitations on available policies, such that it is never likely to achieve an absolute majority, and would always be dependent on minor parties to govern”

    I found this part of your post to be extremely disturbing, you seem to be under the believe that New Zealand should move further and further away from democracy. The dangers in what you propose are if a party is to get majority of seats in parliament they are unaccountable. This is in fact one of the key reasons (If not the key reason) why New Zealand switched to an MMP system. Do not mistake me as thinking only National could do such a thing. Both National and Labour were guilty of getting voted in then changing their tune and essentially taking the country for a ride.

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  33. Southern Raider (1,831 comments) says:

    This makes it worthwhile staying in NZ. Finally the average apathetic Kiwi is starting to wake up to the reality of living under a socialist dogma.

    If you use the analogy of the Frog in the hot water maybe Labour just turned up the temperature too quickly for the average joe blog and all the Frogs have started to jump out of the bath instead of staying put and taking dear leaders medicine?

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  34. calendar girl (1,242 comments) says:

    If it ultimately gains a working majority in Parliament, not yet a foregone conclusion in my view, National should consider what most people always expected was going to happen after 6 years of MMP – holding a further binding referendum on the electoral voting system. Here is a straw man outline of one way to do that:

    a) Conduct a binding referendum by 30 June 2010 between three different options:
    – MMP as presently used;
    – an alternative form of proportional representation (to be chosen later) between 3 alternatives (see below in c)); and
    – FFP as previously used.
    The Government binds itself to legislate for any one of the three options that (i) achieves the most votes cast, and (ii) achieves a minimum of (say) 40% of all votes cast. If none of the options meets these criteria, the status quo prevails for 2011 and beyond, i.e. MMP.

    b) If MMP or FFP is chosen, or if MMP wins as the status quo default option, the 2011 General Election is conducted under that relevant format. After all, the authorities and the electorate have had adequate recent experience of both systems in practice.

    c) A second binding referendum is required only if the second option offered in the initial referendum (i.e. “an alternative form of proportional representation”) meets the prescribed criteria. The second referendum proposes a choice between the three non-MMP forms of proportional representation put to the electorate in 1993 following the Royal Commission on the Electoral System:
    – Single Transferable Vote (STV):
    – Supplementary Member (SM); and
    – Preferential Vote (PV)
    Such binding referendum held in conjunction with the 2011 General Election, with the chosen system (STV, SM or PV) adopted for the 2014 General Election.

    It makes little sense for National to campaign in 2008 on holding a referendum on MMP – the opportuninty is still too much of a contingent possibility, depending on this year’s Election outcome. But after a strong win this year, well worth considering as a way to “re-enfranchise” a dangerously disillusioned electorate.

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  35. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “I found this part of your post to be extremely disturbing,”

    That’s damn good. The more communist propagandists are “disturbed”, the better I like it.

    “Both National and Labour were guilty of getting voted in then changing their tune and essentially taking the country for a ride.”

    ..and this hasn’t happened under MMP?? One of the principle outcomes of MMP has been that the public has not known what policies will be paramount until after the election.

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  36. Richard (130 comments) says:

    If one assumes the electorate vote would also be 27% apart, then you have them also losing 17 electorate seats

    I’m not sure that’s an overly useful assumption. Much like in 2002 when National’s party vote collapsed but the electorate vote barely budged from 1999. I think Cosgrove, Duyhoven and such are probably safer than Fairbrother, Hereora and Pillay.

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  37. David Farrar (1,899 comments) says:

    Richard: If the party vote keeps dropping, I agree the electorate vote may not. But the polls to date which ask electorate vote questions show it close to party vote.

    Also a difference with 2002 if National MPs were not in Government and getting a backlash. In 2008 Labour MPs do face that.

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  38. Richard Hurst (859 comments) says:

    Last year when JK went on his trip to the South Island Westcoast he made the claim that National might end up getting over 50% of the vote. It sounded silly to suggest that at the time, especially in an MMP environment, but now in light of this latest poll in a long line of polls showing National growing in support rather than decreasing as the election draws nearer, I wonder if JK isn’t a better judge of the electorate than most other polies today.

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  39. Richard (130 comments) says:

    But the polls to date which ask electorate vote questions show it close to party vote.
    That’s interesting.

    Also a difference with 2002 if National MPs were not in Government and getting a backlash. In 2008 Labour MPs do face that.

    Very true – it will be interesting to see if those Labour electorate MPs on the right of the Party like Cosgrove and Duyhoven get hit as hard as more obviously chardonay socialist/unionist types.

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  40. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,903 comments) says:

    Reddeath, you display a lamentably juvenile perception of what democracy actually is. When you vote in an administration you are voting for people in whose judgment to act effectively under changing circumstances and condition you have confidence. What you seem to be looking for is some policy lolly scramble where you lock candidates into predetermined positions no matter what changes. Do you have a PhD from the London School of Anarchism?

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  41. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    Thanks for the list of Liarbore list MPs. God what a fucking dogs breakfast no wonder we are in so much shit. The mood seems to be getting uglier every day for the socialists. The only way I can see they can turn around their slagging fortunes is to tie Dear Leader and Sullen to a pole in the middle of a heap of timber and drop a match in.

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  42. Lindsay Addie (1,529 comments) says:

    side show bob spake thus:

    The only way I can see they can turn around their slagging fortunes is to tie Dear Leader and Sullen to a pole in the middle of a heap of timber and drop a match in.

    Trouble with that idea is who the hell would want to lead Labour in opposition with a ragtag bunch similiar to DPF’s list. I doubt if Goff would be that stupid especially after what happened to English circa 2002. Perhaps Cunliffe or Jones, they seem to fancy themselves in the job?

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  43. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    Lindsay- Cunliffe has a few battles ahead of him. There’s the stench of goings-on at Immimgration before, during and after his time as Minister, and there is the Judicial Review of his decision to sack the HBDHB. By election time, the Boy Wonder could well be damaged goods.

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  44. AM2 (30 comments) says:

    I find it very amusing that everyone is crowing so much over this poll. Remember that the only poll that matters is the one on election day. There is no way National are going to record such a high vote as this. I reckon that they will be the largest party but might find it harder to get a coalition together than they think!

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  45. KevOB (267 comments) says:

    The real problem for labour has shown in the poll trendlines for months; there is a downward pressure evident . This can only be public assessment of them as a whole and the consistency shows it is the character of the government which is being measured. Its constancy is reflected in the constancy of the decreasing baseline support.
    Tax cuts will be irrelevant to this government: the longer they stay in office the less their support will be.

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  46. Lindsay Addie (1,529 comments) says:

    IV2,

    Your remarks about Cunliffe are probably true (I was as you no doubt guessed talking mostly tongue-in-cheek). Andrew Little must be counting his lucky stars for not standing for Parliament this time. The biggest issue with Labour in the next Parliament will be to remedy the lack of diversity in their backgrounds. They haven’t what the Nats have which is a lot of people from a different walks of life. Now they are clearly losing the blue collar vote in droves they appear doomed for a very long stretch in the wilderness. Just rolling the leaders of the party does not really address the deep seated problems they have.

    They cannot install a new leader who has had a senior role in this current cabinet because they will get crucified in the House by National by having to endlessly defend a deposed and failed administration. That’s why I don’t ever see Goff as leader of the Labour Party unless it’s a ‘caretaker’ role until someone like Little gains experience.

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  47. Tauhei Notts (1,724 comments) says:

    I am concerned about the resurgence of Winston First.
    This is not good for our country.
    I thought most of his blue rinse brigade had died off, but apparently not.
    My mate at the Mount Mellick is angry that Bob the Builder has stood down. My mate reckons that Bob is the only Tauranga person that could poll higher than Winnie. If so, that is sad, but then again, it could be that Mount Mellick’s delightful Guinness has affected my mate’s judgment.

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  48. getstaffed (9,186 comments) says:

    Tauhei Notts – I share your concern. I’m aghast that such a slimy flake can muster so much support. It speaks volumes about the gullibility of his constituents.

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  49. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    It’s really time for Labour to release that ‘neutron bomb’ they were promising three or four months ago….

    Oh I forgot, they did.

    It was called the EFA.

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  50. getstaffed (9,186 comments) says:

    Nothing on TV3 news about this. Obviously polls showing National slaughtering Labour are a bit ho-hum now.

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  51. Southern Raider (1,831 comments) says:

    Didn’t see anything on One either.

    TV3 did have a big section on tagging in Hastings, which is no doubt more important.

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  52. emmess (1,428 comments) says:

    To be fair, media companies hardly ever comment on other media companies polls except in interviews

    Agenda tommorow could be interesting

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  53. big bruv (13,929 comments) says:

    Are the people of NZ stupid?…WTF is Winston doing at 5%, we need to get rid of this pompus wanker once and for all.

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  54. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    Big bruv, how many voters does $158,000 buy?

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  55. Lance (2,662 comments) says:

    Wow
    I guess the poddle parties will be having new revelations on how the Nats aren’t so bad after all and infact they were just keeping the seats warm for them all the time.

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  56. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    DON’T VOTE LABOUR.

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  57. expat (4,050 comments) says:

    As I have said on the commie (standard) blog and I stand by it; I will vote national because:

    “I will be voting for change because of the ongoing incompetence, corruption and graft that has marred the last labour term.

    I will be voting for national (and I have voted for labour in the past – so you should not feel ashamed if you feel the urge, and want to come out of the red shed, so to speak ;) )

    National offer the hope of the type of change that the ocuntry needed at the time Hulun and Co were voted in after that woman Shipley. A change from the tired ideas rut that we are in now.

    The world has moved on markedly, its time for all New Zealanders to come to terms with this.

    Will Key be a magic bullet? Probably not but he comes with fresh ideas and a strong pedigree for sucess against the odds – isn’t this what New Zealand used to be about?”

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  58. Pascal (1,969 comments) says:

    davidp: Because she is under oath, she’ll have to tell the truth.

    You think? Why would being under oath stop her? Remember, this is the woman who ensured her party stole $800,000 of our money, used retrospective legislation to stop a court case, can’t remember speeding and is a brilliant artist. And she is an atheist, isn’t she? So signing an oath on a Bible is not going to mean anything. Those are perhaps harsh words, but I have nothing to indicate that she will actually tell the truth when a lie will serve her better.

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  59. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,752 comments) says:

    Good to see National so far ahead in the polls.

    The country will be celebrating the change of government well into 2009. Looks like Christmas will come early this year.

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