Violent Crime
The Police released the latest crime statistics today. These are for the financial year 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008 and are the last official figures to be released before the election.
The media and some ill informed commentators focus on the overall crime figures. While of some importance, this is ill advised for two reasons.
- Not all crime is equal. Having 1,000 less cannabis crimes and 500 more rapes is a net decrease in crime, but would be a worrying trend.
- There are two sorts of crimes – those recorded when complained about and those recorded when the Police catch someone doing it. The second sort of crime can record an increase because the Police are better resourced and more pro-active and can vice versa decrease merely because the Police have not been so pro-active or successful in policing that area. Examples of the first sort of crime are assaults, murders, rapes, and most burglaries and thefts. Examples of the second sort are disorder, drugs, gaming, liquor, receiving.
So the overall crime stats and crime rate are not particularly useful as a fall in crime may simply be the result of a decline in police activity.
Hence it is best to focus on the crimes where they are recorded due to a victim or complaintant coming forward. And violent crimes are those most likely to be reported.
And what has happened with violent crime in just the last 12 months? I repeat this is not going back muliple years – this is just the last 12 months:
- The overall number of violent crimes increased by 11.1% or by almost 6,000.
- The number of grievous assaults (the most serious) increased by 11.7%
- The number of homicides increased by 16.7%
- The violent crime rate per 10,000 pop increased by 10.0%
I’ll later blog data all the way back to 1999, but this is again for the last 12 months only. The period where homicides were blamed by the Justice Minister of the moon and the sun.
And what districts have had the biggest violent crime increases. They are:
- Tasman up 23.1%
- Southern up 20.5%
- Bay of Plenty up 17.2%
- Counties-Manukau up 18.9%
- Waikato up 16.8%
Again this is in the last 12 months only.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Feeling dizzy?
[DPF: Not really as I have been saying this for some years now.]
October 1st, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Non-violent (reported) crime down. Exactly. We all know it’s pointless reporting it. Why don’t the NZ Police just have a web form for reporting crime they won’t bother turning up for? It’s honest, you get better statistics, you can claim on your insurance, and nobody’s time is wasted.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:15 pm
when you have a police force run by PC idiots.. what do you expect?
i just hope with a change in government comes a change of direction for our police force. give them the tools to do their job properly and it will go a long way into helping with stats.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Would you trust these stats to be an accurate reflection of the criminal activity in society, or would you see them as a reflection of what crimes are reported to authorities? I would say that there is a tendency to prioritise violent crime, and given that the cops only have limited resources, a “no blood, no bobby” approach is becoming necessary in the face of rising crime stats across the board. The reduction is other crimes exists on paper only IMHO.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Well there were 14 full moons in that period, compared to the usual 13, a 7.7% increase. Plus last summer was 2.3% warmer than usual for a total of 10%. Nothing unusual here at all, stop fear-mongering.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:22 pm
“overall number of violent crimes increased by 11.1%”
Any chance of separating out the domestic violence cases?
October 1st, 2008 at 4:27 pm
And exactly where was John Key when these crimes were being committed?
October 1st, 2008 at 4:37 pm
There is actually an “International Survey of Crime Victims” which comes out I think every 4 or 5 years which is interesting. It captures NON-REPORTED crimes. If I remember rightly, in the last one, NZ was one of the worst countries in the world along with the banana republics of Africa and South America.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:39 pm
HERE it is:
http://rechten.uvt.nl/icvs/
The International Crime Victims Survey. Browse and enjoy.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:39 pm
And I see the prime minister explaining away all this crime as simply more reporting than usual. I am sure she would be saying the same thing if she was in oposition.
It really is interesting the affect extreme left social policy has on a nation, it would appear to take around ten years for major damage to start showing up, lets hope it dosn’t take ten years to un-do.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Here it is: The International Crime Victims Survey: Browse and enjoy.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Bugger, the link keeps getting swallowed up in moderation. Google it for yourself.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:45 pm
And who trusts the NZ Cops any more where political angles are involved?
October 1st, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I will keep saying this in spite of the fact that it brings down negative Karma on me. The repeated line that “getting tough on criminals doesn’t reduce crime”, is a big fat leftist LIE. It has worked in the USA, and it would work the same here. The simple underlying mechanism is this. MOST “unsolved” crime is not committed by “unknown” criminals, but by ones already apprehended by the police for other, often lesser crimes. Lock up the people you DO catch, earlier in their career and for longer each time, and crime drops spectacularly.
Rehabilitation does not work, as the problem has got embedded too deep long since, in the years immediately following the criminal’s birth. The lack of TWO committed parents is the most significant factor here.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:53 pm
The ole more reporting explanation is trotted out every year. Police Statistics were never very accurate even when we did not have a Liabour stooge as Commissioner, there being to many agendas within the Force. Now that the Police are fully politicised with numerous professional spin doctors the stats can safely be totally disregarded.
October 1st, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Annette: “We need to re-classify violent crimes.”
Howard: “Urrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.”
Annette: “Everything apart from really public murders now goes under burglary.”
Howard: “Urrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.”
Annette: “And we just don’t release burglary stats. Say the computer’s broken.”
Howard: “Urrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…by your command, master.”
October 1st, 2008 at 4:54 pm
So… we should keep an eye on John Key?
OK, I’ll get me coat….
October 1st, 2008 at 4:57 pm
As an aside, triggered by Danyl’s comment, it really is going to be a new era for Kiwiblog should National win the next election: how will it (the phenomenon that is the collective nature of the site) respond to no longer being opposition… That will probably be more interesting and dynamic than the actual change of government (which looks a lot like business as usual…) – I can’t wait…
Back on topic – VERY disturbing trends indeed, but like redeye, I’d like some finer grain figures before getting quite so breathless – but I’d suggest that the increase in homicides would indicate that it isn’t just a spike due to more reporting: I doubt whether many of those murdered would have reported their deaths because of the awareness campaigns…
No doubt Rodney and his new mates will go to town on this irrespective of any detail. It is a shame he has shacked up with them, as I could see disaffected Labour voters bypassing National and going for Act (based on Liberal social policies) if it weren’t for their presence…
October 1st, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Just heard an interview on Radio Live that pretty much stated that even if you REPORT a crime, it is still up to the officer to decide if s/he RECORDS it.
(expletive)
Do you realise the implications of this? It means that there is a possibility that there are directives ‘from above’ to work the statistics, then that’s one tool how “reported” crime stats are managed.
Now, I know we all live in a banana republic with a thin veneer of Western culture, but we just seem to be going backwards on all fronts at a rate of knots.
October 1st, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Sam: I doubt whether many of those murdered would have reported their deaths because of the awareness campaigns…
Doubting Sam, of course they would. I mean, without a government telling us that hitting your partner is not done, we would all do it right?
October 1st, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Good analysis of the most reliable data DPF.
PhilBest, you are absolutely right that the lack of two committed parents is the most significant factor. We MUST promote marriage if we are to make any impact on this. Married parents stay together far more than unmarried parents, plain and simple. But for some reason it is now not PC to promote marriage, well just like you I don’t care, someone’s got to speak the truth.
http://sjdennis.wordpress.com/2008/10/01/marriage-better-than-cohabitation/
By the way, I understand it is common practice to tweak what category crime is reported under depending on the desires of whoever is in charge.
October 1st, 2008 at 5:32 pm
“As an aside, triggered by Danyl’s comment, it really is going to be a new era for Kiwiblog should National win the next election: how will it (the phenomenon that is the collective nature of the site) respond to no longer being opposition… That will probably be more interesting and dynamic than the actual change of government (which looks a lot like business as usual…) – I can’t wait…”
Sam – the hating will continue, never fear. “It was (done/started/signed/bought/agreed) during the Clark govt” will be legal tender here for many, many years to come…
October 1st, 2008 at 5:44 pm
RRM said “Sam – the hating will continue, never fear”
Is “hating” the new left wing term for thinking?
October 1st, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Just heard the deputy police commissioner talking on ZB. According to him only 30% of actual crime is reported. He seemed to think that was great.
October 1st, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Does the super justice minster Ms Dingy Kingy attribute the increase in crime on global warming or the Chinese jumping over the moon?
October 1st, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Watch TV1 what a crock of shit, as a south dorkland dairy owner, their are liars THERE are FIBS AND THERES HELEN DAVIS LIARBOR PARTY. DEATH AND LIARBOR ARE CLOSE TOGETHER The working poor are KILLED by unemployed sickness poor, ie the useless shitters, who get benifits and DONT want to contribute um im thinking of the 6 ft sickness druggiess
October 1st, 2008 at 6:25 pm
JSF2008 – How much has the Nancy boy Human Rights review Tribunal paid out to violent criminals for hurt feelings since Aunty Helen started ruining this once proud nation? Labour encourage criminality.
Edit ; TV is the idiot box.
October 1st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
RRM, just like the “It’s all Nationals fault for…” still trotted out occasions now. It will be interesting on both sides. All those now claiming that the increase in crime is correctly ascribed now to increased reporting a la Helen Clark, will no doubt claim that every single increase after the election must be laid personally at the feet of John Key.
October 1st, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Just seen on the news that a guy in the UK that murdered a kiwi girl got life with a minimum of 26 years.
In NZ he would have got parole in 5 and Sky TV, KFC and underfloor heating while locked up.
October 1st, 2008 at 6:35 pm
And the auntie of the guy who tried to rob/murder/assault the liqour store owner in South Auckland yesterday said she knew they had been drinking all day.
13 and 14 year olds drinking during the day and condoned by the adults?
October 1st, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Do many Countries allow cold blooded baby killers time to concoct the perfect alibi?
Good one Banjo – hehehe cheers bro !!
October 1st, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Did anybody else see the story on TV abut the South Auckland liquor store owner who fought back against a group of low life who tried to rob him?
While he was injured himself it looks like he gave two of the little shits a bloody good hiding with a hockey stick, the clips that watched showed the scum covered in blood.
No doubt these two young men committed this crime because of colonisation, certainly the rest of the “fanau” were not happy that the scum were being taken away by the cops.
Meanwhile, it seems that our fucking joke of a police force are considering laying charges against the men who defended their shops, their property and their livelihood.
October 1st, 2008 at 6:56 pm
DPF:So the overall crime stats and crime rate are not particularly useful…
And the populace has once again mistaken talk radio for reality.
October 1st, 2008 at 7:10 pm
Yes big bruv all power to the criminal.
October 1st, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Big bruv, we do not suffer from crime around here, the gun rules and those that would take know this. As for RRM Does your proxy mean ” right royal moron” I do not hate anyone, if they were to show up on my doorstep I would go out of my way to help them out but if they are silly enough to take, well it’s all over red rover.
October 1st, 2008 at 8:14 pm
I just said THIS on an earlier thread:
“……Creeping socialism includes ever tougher restrictions on decent people while mollycoddling genuinely evil people. The toughest restriction of all on decent people that is emerging in all soft socialist dystopias, is the right to defend themselves as the state neglects this role. I could provide some links to Theodore Dalrymple and “Fjordman” on this subject if anyone is interested.”
October 1st, 2008 at 8:16 pm
“Policeman In Wonderland” by Theodore Dalrymple
http://www.city-journal.org/html/10_2_oh_to_be.html
“The Greatest Betrayal In History” by Fjordman
http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2008/06/greatest-betrayal-in-history.html
October 1st, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Here we go again.
Responsibilty.
A crime is a crime is a crime.
No matter what class of crime, it is still a crime.
When will criminals learn that they are responsible for their own actions and should be punnished?
Blamestorming is not an option
October 1st, 2008 at 9:02 pm
The ‘Zero Tolerance’ approach to domestic assault started when I was a cop in the early to mid 90′s. We were under orders to arrest for even the most minor of male assaults female and the offender never got police bail. Of course frequently the victim followed us to the station pleading for hubby’s release but it never happened.
But my point is this: the stats for domestic violence should have been increasing steadily since ~1993 and not just over the last couple of years. So it is disingenious for the Minister or police heirarchy to say that the current increase is because of greater awareness during the last 12 months. The greater awareness started 15 years ago.
October 1st, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Sam says:
Well yes of course, considering we’re all nought but mindless automatons programmed to believe every word spoken by John Key, we’ll be “in government” should he win. All critical thought processes will be abandoned in favour of Big Brother-like adherence to the dictats of our Lord and Master. Do please make sure that philu, toad, RRM, John Dalley, sonic et al know they’ve been given honorary membership to the VRWC, won’t you? Not to mention Redbaiter and the others who think John is a lilly-livered Socialist appeaser.
Then again, this could just be a site where people of all hues engage in constructive and (usually) informed debate and endeavour to hold politicians to account. I suspect any “honeymoon” enjoyed by Key will evaporate faster here than anywhere (which will keep DPF working overtime
)
As for the topic of the post, as petal points out above, what’s recorded is entirely at the discretion of the Police. The Police want tasers (as a precursor to going armed at all times, mark my words) and all of a sudden violent crime statistics blip upwards. Funny, that.
There’s lies, damned lies, statistics, and then there’s whatever the Police say.
October 1st, 2008 at 11:11 pm
You must be new here…
October 1st, 2008 at 11:49 pm
When will Labour address the serious crime issues New Zealand faces?
October 2nd, 2008 at 12:44 am
pete: Shuddup you commie pinko mummy’s boy
