Has something happened?
This is a graph of net permanent and long term migration of NZ citizens on a 12 month rolling average.
It’s probably all a coincidence, but did something happen in November 2008?
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March 23rd, 2009 at 10:11 am
November appears to coincide with the realisation that global employment opportunities contracted sharply as protectionist measures took place meaning Kiwis who would ordinarily seek jobs overseas cannot as there are no jobs on offer. Hence they are staying home.
I am not one that believes the great NACTional gummint has resulted in this.
[DPF: For what it is worth I agree. Govt policies would not affect things for 9 - 12 months generally. In bad economic times (or bad security times like post 9/11) people head home. I couldn't resist having some fun though]
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:13 am
A major economic collapse of some sort?
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:14 am
Graeme,
To assume it was the economic situation is to commit the mistake of post hoc ergo propter hoc. Correlation does not imply causation.
It was clearly the election of the National government.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:22 am
I think it’s a bit of both the economic situation and National coming into power. If Labour had won, educated Kiwis would be leaving his country regardless of employment opportunities. Many National/ACT voters couldn’t live through another 3 years of Klark.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 am
I totally agree EverlastingFire.
Had Clarke and her cronies gotten in there was no way I wanted my family to stay here. Exit visa’s were imminent. Interestingly, my daughter mentioned this to her girlfriends at school. Their response was that all the people who want to get ahead leave NZ. It was rather worrying that the next generation kids were saying that.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:27 am
Another election promise kept by John Key.
Well done that man.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:31 am
EverlastingFire
I agree, I had cashed up a fair few things and was ready to take the Qantas option if Labour had stolen another election.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:35 am
So we can look forward to an applogy from the Key is lair because he hasn’t reduced emigration by March mob now?
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:40 am
Murray
NO. Remember Labour were never responsible for the increase in over the last 9 years therefore National cannot be responsible for the trend reversing.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:41 am
A major economic collapse of some sort?
I think we all agree that the election of the National government obviously caused the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 am
Would be a supreme achievement in hackery for any half-sane blogger to claim that Key single handedly stemmed the tide.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 am
Well Murray, I guess not, given that even the mischief fomenting David Farrar says that it wasn’t Key’s doing, but the ‘bad economic times’. Nevertheless, your keeness to laud Key remains undiminished. It’s kinda cute, in a sad way.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 am
Funny how , everything else that happens now is to be pinned on Labour, but when there is ‘good news’, its all because of a change of government on november 20.
Good to see DPF is not above formenting happy mischief
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:48 am
My keeness to laud John Key? You are a fuckwit.
I did no such thing, I asked if you and your missinformation department of the greens were going to acknowledge that trend has reversed in spite of you claims it hasn’t. Show me where I praise him in that comment.
I also spend more time kicking Key than praising him. He’s far too left for my liking. Feel free to appologise for misrepresenting me.
Kinda fucking deeply offensive, but thats your way isn’t it, never let the facts get in the way of being a myopic left wing mouthpice – in a tragicly pathetic way. Some of us have brains for doing more than processing the party line but thats clearly not your way.
March 23rd, 2009 at 10:49 am
I checked the timing, and given the correct amount of policy lag, I think it is safe to say that the people returning to NZ were all in favour of the EFA.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:00 am
I was one of them. I was looking at options for moving overseas if Labour had got in again. It is not something one dies lightly, especially when there is a family to uproot. Reality is that I made that decision to leave if Labour got in again but it would have been probably a year before I could have moved – work, kid’s schooling already paid for etc etc.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:02 am
I have no doubt – it is all due to a change of Government.
Sure – helped by lotsa people lossing jobs in financial outfits (and Im not sure we really need them back here – will they repeat their efforts here when things recover ??) – but I have no doubt that the removal of the P.C. brigade and its cess pit of dogma and arrogance was the thing that changed lots of people minds.
You know – there is an old saying about “women scorned” – and what a damaging thing a woman on the path to revenge can be.
Well I have become convinced that in the last 3 years of the labour gov’t all we saw was the actions of a bunch of women who had some sort of chip on their shoulders, and they were going to get their revenge by impossing their programme on society irrespective of opposition and they were blind to the consequences.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:10 am
jacob van hartog
“Funny how , everything else that happens now is to be pinned on Labour”
Suck it up – now you and your lot need to listen to The failed policies of the past crapola for the next 16 years…
It was good enough to blame National for stuff that happened last year and the year before because of what they did in 1990… Get use to it!
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:26 am
Barry:
but I have no doubt that the removal of the P.C. brigade and its cess pit of dogma and arrogance was the thing that changed lots of people minds.
Odd you say something like that, I haven’t actually noticed a single change in my day to day life.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:37 am
racer
I have noticed one big change. The political discourse is now about what is good for NZ rather than what is good for the re-election of the Labour party. Small but subtle shift that I wouldn’t expect people who believed the two things were one in the same to notice.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:47 am
Well, I was actually half way through a holiday visiting family in Aus and I was following the election online. My returning ticket to Wellington was not booked and paid for until Helen Clark had conceded and it was definite that Labour, the Greens and NZ First were no longer in control
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:52 am
# burt (2530) Vote: Add rating 1 Subtract rating 0 Says:
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:37 am
racer
I have noticed one big change. The political discourse is now about what is good for NZ rather than what is good for the re-election of the Labour party. Small but subtle shift that I wouldn’t expect people who believed the two things were one in the same to notice.
So as I said, fuck all has changed. btw your wrong in this thread too, I could describe everything national has done as only doing it for the good of their re-election, but if I recall your a fully paid up member of the ‘its-ok-when-we-do-it-but-not-ok-when-they-do’ brigade, so i guess you wouldn’t be able to understand that.
March 23rd, 2009 at 11:55 am
Yeaah…wait until National, um, has to get re-elected. Give it at least a year.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:02 pm
xkcd – A Webcomic – Correlation
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:07 pm
“but if I recall your a fully paid up member of the ‘its-ok-when-we-do-it-but-not-ok-when-they-do’ brigade, so i guess you wouldn’t be able to understand that.”
Pot meets kettle, bullshit ensues.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Racer, heaps of change, the witch is gone, the waste master general is gone, “the minister has addressed question” has gone and numerous other noddys and suckholes have been shown the door. The boil has been lanced.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:43 pm
stephen
For sure. IMHO the “new” govt last about 6 months actively doing “policy” stuff then they turn their attention to the next election and start doing stuff for their popularity. The problem with a multi term govt is that after they win their second they stop pretending to be interested in the country and focus only on re-election for a 3rd term.
There is a reason why the US has a “two term limit”…. we should have the same thing here.
BTW: I’m not a National party supporter. I’m not a Labour supporter either, I know it’s hard for Labour apologists to understand that I’m not polarised one way or the other but that’s the way it is.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:45 pm
side show bob said: the boil has been lanced but stops short of saying that the resulting pus has been lovingly collected by the likes of himself, Murray, Redbaiter and friends and used by them as unguents to grease their undying hatred for the Labour Party. It’s kinda unseemly guys.
Murray – you find being accused of praising John Key for something ‘deeply fucken offensive’? Alright!
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:55 pm
greenfly
You on the other hand have been collecting the pus and drinking it to make yourself as sick as the Labour party.
Lots of water greenfly, rest and regular exercise plus plenty of green vegetables and you should be open minded and able to see bad shit when it’s put infront of you in no time. I look forward to you getting well again.
March 23rd, 2009 at 12:59 pm
FWIW I should say that it’s specifically the media who talk up ‘doing what it takes’ to get re-elected, as it makes for a nice angle. Whether it’s necessarily accurate is hard to say, but I doubt they care about that.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Greenflea & Warthog
Well there you go: right on cue. Predictably peering stoically through the pink film of denial to pooh pooh the equally predictable response by the usual combatants to the reversal of this trend.
Well, they can be forgiven their jubilation because, along with over 70% of the people who voted, they are overjoyed to see the back of your poxy little crew of shameless miscreants.
Well, the down turn may well have had a significant impact on the decline. But the fact remains that skilled kiwis were fleeing the nest in their droves before this, to be replaced with low skilled migrants employed in minimum wage jobs. Why else do you think PAYE revenue had tanked well before the crunch really bit locally?
Makes perfect sense really. If you want to stay in control then just get rid of the naysayers and import some dependents.
Irrespective of the reasons for the reversal, the fact remains that these stats represent an alarming trend, or did you not notice? Maxing at an increase of over 50% over the Jan 07 stats. Was it the weather? The full moon? Crapping out in the world cup? Hordes of grads off to work for sub prime packagers? Did the concept of “the OE” suddenly get discovered?
Maybe it reflects an appalling lack of duty by unpatriotic kiwis who have selfishly shirked their responsibsility to stay and pay their fair share to assist in creating a just and fair society. Yes, that must be it.
By the way. Do you ever get out? Have you ever spoken to people who left or were about to leave? Do you ever hear the stories second hand? Hmmm. Thought not. Better to stick to the reliable circle of chardonnay socialists who know what’s best for everyone else.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:40 pm
It’s clear all those policies Key’s implemented have reversed the tide. Well done indeed. Fear not the gazillion dollars being pumped into infrastructure development in Australia, no wage enticements will shake the renewed bonhomie of a Key-led NZ.
March 23rd, 2009 at 1:56 pm
It will probably increase, due to conditions overseas plus the psychological advantage of the change of government. It would snowball if Sir Roger’s ideas were enacted.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Yeah but which way Phil? I hear Iceland’s got open borders.
March 23rd, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Itis deeply fucking offensive to claim Ihave done something that I have not.
Hows that appology coming?
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:10 pm
Appology? Maybe about the same time as the jews appolgise for their genocidal attacks on Gaza.
“JERUSALEM_ Rabbis affiliated with the Israeli army urged troops heading into Gaza to reclaim what they said was God-given land and “get rid of the gentiles” — effectively turning the 22-day Israeli intervention into a religious war, according to the testimony of a soldier who fought in Gaza. ”
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/64518.html
Yeah, I guess we’re all jsut a wee bit sorry that Murray is an appologist for Israeli genocide.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:14 pm
There is a reason why the US has a “two term limit”…. we should have the same thing here.
Dude, we’ve had the same head of state since she was crowned.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:44 pm
And the genocidal arsehole speaks.
You guys ever stopped to think that the reason the left is left right out is because of your stellar attitudes?
You really are just a jack booted bit of trash aren’t you jerkoff. Go drive someone into the sea adolph.
March 23rd, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Arh Murray, thought I heard you fart.
The left is out where? Aus? no. UK? No. USA? No. Germany? No. NZ? No
You’re a funny fucker, aren’t you. unfortunately, that’s funny peculiar.
Guess you get your jollies off watching pictures of palestinians being slaughtered by Israleis in the name of god and ridding tha land of gentiles. Fucking religion, poisons everything.
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Admittedly probably not a lot of NZ expats in Dubai but when things started going sour there, you have to leave – no job, no right of abode essentially. Witness the car parks of abandoned cars in the airport car parks. I’m sure there are a multitude of factors but I refuse to accept that a large part of it is down to the election of the National Government.
I might sincerely dislike them but living overseas has upped my own opinion that there is very little structural difference in the way the country is run when different parties are in power. Certainly there is some (bad in my opinion with some decisions made so far) and I would prefer to be in the country when its being run by a Labour Government, but the sheer incompetence of overseas Governments and in particular where I am now based does make me appreciate coming home to this little slice of paradise, if only for a short time. Even under a personally despised National Government!
March 23rd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
It appears over the entire time series expressed in your graph more New Zealanders have left NZ than arrived. The graph is not showing a change is clearly showing a continuation.
March 23rd, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Been away all day, saving the world (we’re all gonna have ta eat!) and missed your comment Kimble! Brilliant!
Murray. Seek help.
March 23rd, 2009 at 7:22 pm
gan grenefly – there you go again, in breach of your own green party values number 6
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Assuming a modest 10-15% increase in the rate of departures had Labour+Poodles+Frauds ‘won’ in November (yes – I too was planning to flee), there are now about 6000 more Kiwi’s here that there would have been. I’m guessing that these folks pay tax. Probably quite good for us right now.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:34 pm
getstaffed said: yes – I too was planning to flee Not very patriotic or loyal getstaffed. I’m tough enough to dig in while this present government slashes and burns. I’ll not scamper off with my tail between my legs.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Yes, well torture victims have their limits despite their patriotism.
FWIW I have family members on both sides of my family who arrived in NZ in the 1840′s. So any decision to leave was being weighed very heavily. I’m pleased to be staying. You should be happy too – I contribute a significant amount of tax to help fund NZ Inc.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:43 pm
greenfly
getstaffed, like myself, had already endured 9 years of the most corrupt and self serving administration this county has ever seen. Lets see if you still have the staying power to claim you are patriotic 8 1/2 years of National govt from now.
Really you need to get out more greenfly, are you paid by the word to be a complete an utter half-wit?
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:47 pm
greenfly
I had stated on several blogs that I would bail from NZ if Labour stole another election. I’m also pleased that it didn’t happen and I get to enjoy my birth country. If I (along with my wife, two kids and a business) picked up or stuff and departed the tax base would be the looser. I’ve never been a financial burden on this country, always paid a lot more than the average amount of tax.
People like you need to get over your Muldoon complex of “people leaving for Aussie will lift the average IQ in both countries” and realise that loosing productive tax payers & employers is a very bad thing for an economy.
March 23rd, 2009 at 9:48 pm
burt
Oh come on, Greenfly has gone way past what you might describe as “half”, she is now a complete and utter “-wit”
You can insert what every word you feel appropriate in front of “-wit”
March 24th, 2009 at 7:19 am
burt – your stirring patriotism and stoicism in the face of 9 years of the most corrupt and self serving administration this county has ever seen. makes me proud to be on the same page as you! What a trooper. I only hope against hope that I can muster the courage you have shown, in facing this present NActional/Dunne/Maori government and their entirely fair and reasonable ways. You’re an inspiration.
March 24th, 2009 at 10:34 am
It was good fun to watch Helen Clark getting booted out of office.