Little 16% behind
June 27th, 2011 at 8:48 am by David FarrarHannah Fleming and Zaryd Wilson in the Taranaki Daily News report:
Labour’s Andrew Little is moving to New Plymouth in the next two weeks but he already has a mountain of work to do.
The man many are touting as the next Labour leader and prime minister will have to quickly roll up his sleeves after a significant poll of the New Plymouth electorate he covets this week indicated National’s lead in recent nationwide polls is being reflected in the city, previously the country’s most marginal electorate.
The election may be five months away, on November 26, but incumbent National MP Jonathan Young has the early jump on his main challenger, polling well ahead of the former Labour Party president in a Witt School of Journalism survey.
Mr Young secured a tiny 105-vote majority in 2008, but he won 41.56 per cent of support in Witt’s random telephone poll compared with Mr Little’s 25.33 per cen
The poll, which had a margin of error of 4.55 per cent, asked 820 voters to choose between Mr Young and Mr Little. Of that number 462 people responded.
New Plymouth is going to be one of the interesting seats. National won the party vote by 6,500 votes, so for Little to win, he will need to attract a chunk of National voters.
No tag for this post.
June 27th, 2011 at 8:55 am
You have to wonder if the public have forgotten who Little was now that his share of the national limelight has dropped down.
Not being an MP or the president of Labour kind of means that he is hunting for scraps of publicity.
Obviously he’s pretty safe on Labour’s list but to have a chance in New Plymouth he will need to get his hands dirty and get out and do some old fashioned door knocking and campaigning – you have to wonder if he knows what this means.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 8:57 am
Does it matter? Little will get in on the list anyway. Like Davis in Te Tai Tokerau (who sounded quite different on NatRad this morning) it’s just part of the party game.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 8:59 am
Why does Little need ‘to attract a chunk of National voters’? There is only a 105-vote majority. Labour willbe looking to pick up the seat, no doubt.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 9:13 am
Mikenmild – do you know the difference between party and electorate vote?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 9:20 am
Miken….
Vote:Of course. But National will be aware of this and will be campaigning, albeit sotto voce, as we comment.
The Oliver Twists in Christchurch will not help Labour. (read Armstrong in NZH, Saturday?)
New Plymouth is built on two industries – farming & gas/oil.
Is Little (a populist) and Labour planning a “Taranaki only” policy (on gas/oil/ETS) to have Little avoid the dreaded list?
I doubt it.
June 27th, 2011 at 9:22 am
I was called down to New Plymouth last week to deal with some family issues.
Vote:While driving to and from the hospital i noted that Mr Little has already started putting up signage around the place. So it looks like the campaigning has started.
I also found out what a tornedo sounds like at close range but that is another story.
June 27th, 2011 at 9:35 am
Three hats two to many? Further proof that men can’t multi-task?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 9:41 am
DPF
Like to patronise much?
2008 Young beat Duynhoven in NP 16,539 to 16,434. Party vote 17,512 (National) 10,901 (Labour)
2005 Duynhoven beat Irving in NP 17,512 to 12,087. Party vote 14,836 (National) 12,542 (Labour)
Still hard to see why Little needs ‘to attract a chunk of National voters’, unless you mean a few hundred. Maybe you have a theory about the relationship between electorate and party votes you would care to expound.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 9:44 am
Impossible! The extremely charismatic socialist Andrew Little can not, and will not, lose.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 9:52 am
Mike,
Vote:In 2008, thousands of National party voters gave their electorate vote to Harry Duynhoven, which is why he came so close to winning. This was because Duynhoven was a very very popular local MP since 1987. (He has since been elected mayor).
People are not going to vote Little just becaue they liked Duynhoven.
If Little is to win, he too will need to persuade about 3000 people whose party vote went to National to vote for him.
Personally I cant imagine what on earth led him to think he had a chance in the first place, unless he doesn’t think that and is only standing for show.
June 27th, 2011 at 9:54 am
I can’t see anything in their potential policy mix that isn’t more of the same old prescription which failed miserably last time, so what pray tell does Andrew or any of them for that matter, have to sell?
Isn’t that a shame.
I’m looking forward to their asset sale meme being blown out of the water by their immense hypocrisy: 17 assets; $9.49 billion was what Goff agreed with when he was in power. I imagine they forgot to mention all of that to Blue State Digital as it was mapping out the election strategy.
Oh dear. Let’s hope they have plenty in the war chest seeing as how Parliamentary Services seems to have gotten all shy lately, so they can pay BSD for another strategy since this one is blown to hell. What’s that? There isn’t? Oh dear.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 9:57 am
42% to 25% with 19% saying “don’t know” and 14% saying “other”. Given the only others who competed for the seat last time were an ACT candidate and some independents, I’d say it’s still anyone’s game.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:01 am
This may be a little (no pun intended) bit off topic, but how is the margin of error worked out?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:06 am
s.russell
Your argument makes sense, but seems to be predicated on a supposition that those who voted Duynhoven/National last time are more likley to vote Young/National than Little/National. There may be something in that. It seems more likely though that New Plymouth is one of those provincial seats where MPs can develop a strong personal following. Labour’s share of the NP party vote declined from 38% to 31% from 2005 to 2008. Labour’s nationwide vote dropped from 41% to 34%. There doesn’t need to be much of a swing back to Labour nationally for the NP result to be more like 2005 than 2008. I’d be interested to hear morecomment on the respective appeal of these candidates in the electorate.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:08 am
Mikenmild; did you miss this bit?
It’s patently obvious what the carpet-bagging EPMU general secretary has to do, to all those who look at the numbers with more than one jaundiced eye. But given that Little is highly placed on Labour’s list, all Young needs to do is say “Vote for me, and you get two MP’s”; it worked for Hone!
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:14 am
There’s that bloody word again! Much and all as I detest and despise Labour I don’t think Andrew Little quite deserves this.
In case the Godless have forgotten it is found in one of the ten commandments ‘Thou shalt not covet’ and is usually an admonition to refrain from screwing one’s best friend’s wife.
covet
- 3 dictionary results
cov·et
[kuhv-it] Show IPA
–verb (used with object)
1.
to desire wrongfully, inordinately, or without due regard for the rights of others: to covet another’s property.
Exodus 20:17
Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s house, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his ass, nor any thing that is thy neighbour’s.
It’s high time to get the bible back into schools. Might improve the literacy of the nation’s next generation of joournalists
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:17 am
IV2
Little a ‘carpet bagger’. I could be wrong, but isn’t he from New Plymouth and standing against Jonathan Young, who, ‘before entering politics, was the Senior Minister at CityChurch Waitakere in West Auckland for 18 years’.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:18 am
But given that Little is highly placed on Labour’s list, all Young needs to do is say “Vote for me, and you get two MP’s”; it worked for Hone!
And on top of that Andrew not only loses but also now has to live in New Plymouth for the forseeable future.
Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:25 am
Does it matter, he will get in on the list.
Even if every New Plymouth resident did not want him in Parliament, they can do nothing about it.
Such is the absurdity of MMP.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:25 am
Yes adolf then we can have a really detailed discussion about the right way to beat a slave or a woman if they offend you, as per what the bible says?
Also if my right hand offends me and i cut it off, what do i do now if my left hand offends me?
also why did you not post the two other meanings of covet? your copy and paste says there are 3 but you only listed one. is it as i suspect that the other 2 are more modern meanings that make your bible whining impotent?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:26 am
Dirty Dazza Hughes is at a bit of a loose end – perhaps he could help Little’s effort to come from behind?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:32 am
Such is the absurdity of MMP.
Until he claims a seat and makes it his own I think he’ll struggle to get traction. You can’t be a PM if you can’t even convince enough people in an electorate to support you so it remains I think in voters minds, for a PM role, a relevant milestone.
So I hope he loses, a lot, over the next few decades. He should have gone to Palmy and taken over from Smarmy. That would have been a better bet.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:39 am
I think we can assume that Little feels he has realistic prospects in New Plymouth. reid is correct insofar as Little needs a secure electorate seat to make a mark as a future leader. Although there is no reason why a leader can’t be a list-only MP, an electorate base seems to be the preference.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:46 am
In theory can list MP’s become PM?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:47 am
Can anyone tell me why Little keeps getting billed as the next Labour megastar?
I have seen nothing impressive about him. No charisma or charm and when he opens his mouth I can’t find any remarkable intelligence.
To qualify this as not being totally partisan, there are Labour politicians who I have had respect for in the past.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:48 am
“Even if every New Plymouth resident did not want him in Parliament, they can do nothing about it.
Such is the absurdity of MMP.”
It doesn’t sound absurd to me, why shouldn’t the rest of the country get to vote Little in just because <1000 people in New Plymouth don't want to jump over to Little?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:50 am
wreck
List MPs can be Ministers or PM. It’s just that no major party leader so far has chosen to be list only.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Can anyone tell me why Little keeps getting billed as the next Labour megastar?
Because the alternative is Silent-T LGF and when you’re faced with a choice between Little and Silent-T, well who would anyone choose?
To qualify this as not being totally partisan, there are Labour politicians who I have had respect for in the past.
Really? Which one?
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 11:14 am
LGF,
Vote:I’ve always thought of Mr Little as being a functionary with few redeming features who by mistake found himself at the top of the pile.
The labour equivalent of John Major.
June 27th, 2011 at 11:38 am
mikenmild: Don Brash was a list MP as leader of the National Party going into the 2005 election.
Slightly off-topic, I find the popular attitude to list MPs strange, having come to NZ from Australia, where senators are an important party of political life and aren’t criticised for not being able to garner the support of an electorate.
While constitutional convention dictates that the PM and the Treasurer must sit in the House of Reps, Senators can fill any other ministerial position and in the past there have been some very good senators who held important ministerial positions. The senators in Bob Hawke’s first ministry were some of his best performers: John Button, Don Grimes, Peter Walsh, and Gareth Evans all made great contributions.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 11:38 am
In theory can list MP’s become PM?
Yes, and it makes sense that they are a list MP, the PM doesn’t have time to lok after an electorate properly. Neither do cabinet ministers and leader of the opposition.
It’s absurd that we let the parties continue to use the party list as their convenient tool rather than the list containing the executive MP level of the party, and which the party vote should be judging.
And similar to what georgebowling says.
We let our parties do to much for their own convenience – but we can force that to chnage if we want to.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 11:41 am
george some of our list people aren’t very good, I think that’s the general idea. Not quite Senator material, as it were.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 11:42 am
Sorry George, forgot about Brash (he is forgettable, isn’t he?)
I agree with Pete George: it doesn’t make sense for the PM to be an electorate MP, but it seems to be almost a given. Perhaps there’s some residual popular feeling that a list MP isn’t a ‘real MP’.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 11:44 am
I share the same sense of puzzlement on why the boring and most uncharismatic Little is touted as the next Labour leader.
The obvious conclusion is that the socialists have run out of alternatives, and this three-hat-wearing non-entity has been chosen by default.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 11:51 am
exodus – the Catholics must have missed that one about not coveting their neighbour’s ass
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 11:56 am
Little has no chance of taking New Plymouth. Quite simply up there Little has no profile, Labour are bleeding support (No one will back known loser) and , they are flat broke. Labour will not take any seats of National in te 2011 election. They may pick up one or two Maori Seats but that will be about it.
Maybe he should change tack and Trevor Mallard should retire and Little can instead stand for the seat of Wainuiomata (and surrounding area)
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
Labour are bleeding support (No one will back known loser) and , they are flat broke.
Isn’t it dweadful?
Maybe he should change tack and Trevor Mallard should retire and Little can instead stand for the seat of Wainuiomata (and surrounding area)
Fuck no, that’s not going to happen. No way. New Plymouth is much nicer Andrew, if you’re listening.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Largely what Monty said, and I live in NP. By choice. Great place to bring up kids
Take my comments with a grain of salt – I earn high 6 figures, self employed and have been for 10 years, and have no time for socialists.
Little has zero profile here. I saw a little red sign up the other day, and sure enough, he’s campaigning. Well, he has a sign up. Go figure. As for becoming ‘our’ MP, not even. Harry was (god knows how or why) well thought of by a not insignificant part of town here, but that doesn’t equate to a love for Labour. Harry was elected to the Mayoralty on the back of that and a dearth of anyone else capable – he’s a half decent administrator with zero charisma, unlike our ex-Mayor Pete (come back Pete, all is forgiven!) BUT Harry does get out and about.
Little will get in on the list, I don’t doubt it. JC will hold the seat, again, I don’t doubt it. And probably with an increased majority I suspect. Time will tell. But using this ‘poll’ to back that premise is spurious to say the least. Oh, and the general perception is that Little IS an Auckland carpet bagger, despite the fact that he was born here. I actually wonder how well his union background sits with people here. Don’t know.
Me, I think he’s an arse. I may be biased
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 12:45 pm
Reid,
To qualify this as not being totally partisan, there are Labour politicians who I have had respect for in the past.
Really? Which one?
Answer: Roger Douglas
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
LOL Labour is so fucked. Three years in opposition and they are still can’t find their arse from their elbow! This just shows what a bunch of no hopers they are. They need to Dump Goff with a bullet in the brain, it’s the kindest way.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
george some of our list people aren’t very good, I think that’s the general idea.
It shouldn’t be the general idea, it’s just how parties use ideas that suit them rather than what makes sense.
The list should be the best the party can offer. The top of the list should be leadership and if in government cabinet ministers.
Electorate MPs should be dedicated to representing their electorates in parliament. But don’t expect the parties to chnage unless they think they have to. Electorates will continue to be underrepresented, and lists will languish.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
The , that last bastion of political independence (excuse me while I choke) has given Little’s campaign a boost today with a four-page story on him. It’s not a puff piece at all, and amongst other things, carries this gem:
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
It shouldn’t be the general idea
Quite agree Pete but unfortunately, it actually is that, at the mo. That’s the point, notwithstanding the list for every party indeed is the place where the cream rises – perhaps in some parties all the cream they are possibly capable of mustering remain insufficient in sheer quantity required to hide the horrid curdled nature of the overall concoction.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Whoops; the last paragraph shouldn’t be in the blockquotes
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
YEARS ago on agenda, Little said he would like to be an MP one day. From that moment on, I have been waiting him. Cunning as a snake.
Vote:He knew Labour were Goneburger well before the arsekicking they got on 2008 which is why he decided not to stand. I also believe he saw the writing on the wall for Mike Williams and decided he would have that job as a stop-gap.
He then, for whatever reason .. possibly because he has a huge opinion of himself .. decided to go for a seat instead of a list position only and was left with NP. being the town he was born, he thought that would give him some sort of advantage!!
Now, I think that most of the Labour MP’s are shit scared of him AND they all know he wants to be Leader and the sooner the better.
I agree with those above who see him void of any charisma at all. Not sure how much Johnathon has either but I don’t live there.
Will be a fasinating tussle
June 27th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
jaba … Thats how it see it too.
The problem for Little he has over estermated his own importants and under read the New Plymouth electorate.. Jonathan Young has done the oppersite .. although new.. he has warmed himself to the NP electorate .. and they to him.
And don’t forget the important thing .. New Zealanders in times of uncurtainty want stable Government with strong Leadership… New Plymouth will also vote for Jonathan Young because Key is his Leader.
Vote:June 27th, 2011 at 7:22 pm
Just what the people of NP need, another diseased parasitic socialist worm with the all the charm of four day old road kill. New Plymouth relies heavily on the oil industry and dairy farming the very things that these socialists scum have ear marked for extra rich prick taxes. He hasn’t got a hope in hell, why doesn’t he go for a nice safe seat in some big city infested with the unthinking socialist.
Vote:June 28th, 2011 at 6:06 am
I’m still recovering from the idea that he might covet my ass.
Vote:June 30th, 2011 at 8:06 am
I hope Little loses and it seems like he will. The embarrassment will set back his leadership ambitions. The real question is why on earth is he even trying New Plymouth?
Little is a leadership candidate because he is a slimy political type who appeals to Labour’s union/socialist `base’. I hope he never becomes leader, because whoever is Labour leader in 2017 (when John Key’s three terms are up) will probably become PM. Goff, boring though he is, is an OK candidate—though that says more about the lack of quality in parliament than it does about him.
Vote: